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25 DAYS OUT
SC SenGraham R +0.8NE SenOsborn I +1.2KS GovMasterson R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.3KS SenHamilton D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NV GovLombardo R +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.5TX SenTalarico D +2.7GA GovBottoms D +2.9FL SenMoody R +3.1OH GovActon D +3.9ME SenJackson D +4.0OH SenBrown D +4.4WI GovCrowley D +5.2
2026 forecast

New Hampshire Senate forecast

Chris Pappas vs John E. Sununu, an open seat. The model has Pappas ahead by 11.7 points, winning 96 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +11.7Polls D +8.0Updated October 9, 2026

County simulation

10 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +77.6: 1 simulationsD +74.7: 0 simulationsD +71.9: 0 simulationsD +69.0: 0 simulationsD +66.2: 0 simulationsD +63.3: 0 simulationsD +60.5: 0 simulationsD +57.6: 1 simulationsD +54.8: 1 simulationsD +51.9: 1 simulationsD +49.1: 1 simulationsD +46.2: 2 simulationsD +43.4: 3 simulationsD +40.5: 4 simulationsD +37.7: 6 simulationsD +34.8: 13 simulationsD +32.0: 20 simulationsD +29.1: 54 simulationsD +26.3: 112 simulationsD +23.4: 289 simulationsD +20.6: 646 simulationsD +17.7: 1073 simulationsD +14.9: 1576 simulationsD +12.0: 1912 simulationsD +9.2: 1660 simulationsD +6.3: 1295 simulationsD +3.5: 685 simulationsD +0.6: 348 simulationsR +2.2: 149 simulationsR +5.1: 79 simulationsR +7.9: 34 simulationsR +10.8: 13 simulationsR +13.6: 7 simulationsR +16.5: 7 simulationsR +19.3: 2 simulationsR +22.2: 1 simulationsR +25.0: 2 simulationsR +27.9: 0 simulationsR +30.7: 1 simulationsR +33.6: 2 simulationsD +79.0R +35.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +19.7 and D +3.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +8.0
YouGov1,520 LV4dD +7.1
Rasmussen Reports (R)979 LV5dD +6.2
Saint Anselm College for AARP1,042 LV10dD +6.5
Trafalgar Group (R)1,082 LV12dD +8.3
New York Times/Siena University613 LV17dD +4.6
University of New Hampshire1,418 LV18dD +8.2
InsiderAdvantage (R)1,200 LV22dD +9.7
co/efficient (R)958 LV28dD +3.8
Rasmussen Reports (R)1,000 LV29dD +12.0
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)600 LV40dD +0.9
University of New Hampshire1,878 LV46dR +1.8
Saint Anselm College1,411 LV52dD +6.6
Peak Insights (R)500 LV104dD +5.9
Saint Anselm College1,614 RV106dD +5.8
University of New Hampshire2,232 LV108dD +3.2
University of New Hampshire2,053 LV263dD +5.2
NHJournal/Praecones Analytica603 RV285dD +6.2
Guidant Polling and Strategy600 LV302dD +3.0
Saint Anselm College2,212 RV324dD +2.9
co/efficient1,034 LV361dD +5.0
University of New Hampshire1,235 LV381dD +6.2
co/efficient904 LV392dD +5.0
1892 Polling500 LV400dD +2.0

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupSharePappasSununu
GenderMen45%48.748.7
Women55%59.438.0
Age18 to 2914%57.240.0
30 to 4420%52.544.9
45 to 6435%51.945.5
65+31%57.639.8
RaceWhite92%52.544.9
Black1%86.910.4
Latino3%69.927.4
Asian and other5%79.017.8
Race and genderWhite men41%45.851.6
White women51%57.939.5
Latino men1%67.929.4
Latino women1%71.925.4
All other races5%79.017.8