2026 forecast
New Hampshire Governor forecast
Cinde Warmington vs Kelly Ayotte. The model has Ayotte ahead by 8.2 points, winning 91 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
10 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +0.4 and R +16.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +9.8 | |
| YouGov | 1,520 LV | 4d | R +10.0 |
| Saint Anselm College for AARP | 1,042 LV | 10d | R +7.5 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 613 LV | 17d | R +11.4 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,418 LV | 18d | R +3.8 |
| co/efficient (R) | 958 LV | 28d | R +17.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,878 LV | 46d | R +9.8 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,411 LV | 52d | R +11.4 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,614 RV | 106d | R +8.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2,232 LV | 108d | R +4.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Warmington | Ayotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 45% | 38.9 | 58.5 |
| Women | 55% | 49.3 | 48.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 45.0 | 52.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 41.9 | 55.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 42.2 | 55.2 |
| 65+ | 31% | 48.9 | 48.5 |
| RaceWhite | 92% | 42.4 | 55.0 |
| Black | 1% | 80.4 | 17.1 |
| Latino | 3% | 61.7 | 35.8 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 70.1 | 26.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 36.0 | 61.5 |
| White women | 51% | 47.7 | 49.7 |
| Latino men | 1% | 59.8 | 37.7 |
| Latino women | 1% | 63.5 | 34.0 |
| All other races | 5% | 70.1 | 26.9 |