2026 forecast
Michigan Governor forecast
Jocelyn Benson vs John James, an open seat. The model has Benson ahead by 7.8 points, winning 93 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
83 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +14.6 and D +1.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +6.4 | |
| Guidant Polling for Public First Action | 600 LV | 4d | D +4.7 |
| YouGov | 3,949 LV | 5d | D +2.1 |
| Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit | 682 LV | 8d | D +6.7 |
| Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D) | 483 RV | 8d | D +9.0 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,028 LV | 11d | D +8.4 |
| NPR/Marist | 1,200 RV | 12d | D +9.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 843 LV | 16d | D +6.9 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 605 LV | 17d | D +4.7 |
| Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) | 600 LV | 18d | D +8.1 |
| SSRS | 843 LV | 33d | D +8.0 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 36d | D +4.9 |
| EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 42d | D +4.1 |
| Michigan State University/YouGov | 779 LV | 50d | D +8.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 877 LV | 59d | D +4.6 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,006 RV | 60d | D +4.7 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | 1,215 LV | 60d | D +15.5 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 276d | R +1.3 |
| Mitchell Research | 616 LV | 322d | R +6.2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 600 RV | 332d | R +0.7 |
| Rosetta Stone Communications | 637 LV | 349d | R +4.7 |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | 600 LV | 360d | D +1.0 |
| Glengariff Group | 600 RV | 519d | D +1.9 |
| Mitchell Research | 688 LV | 575d | D +2.8 |
| Target Insyght | 600 RV | 608d | D +12.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Benson | James |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 48.8 | 49.4 |
| Women | 54% | 56.6 | 41.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 56.6 | 41.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 52.7 | 45.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 50.3 | 47.8 |
| 65+ | 31% | 54.4 | 43.8 |
| RaceWhite | 79% | 45.5 | 52.6 |
| Black | 12% | 88.0 | 10.4 |
| Latino | 3% | 66.5 | 31.7 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 75.2 | 22.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 39.8 | 58.4 |
| White women | 43% | 50.2 | 47.9 |
| Black men | 6% | 86.7 | 11.7 |
| Black women | 6% | 89.2 | 9.2 |
| Latino men | 2% | 63.5 | 34.7 |
| Latino women | 2% | 69.5 | 28.7 |
| All other races | 5% | 75.2 | 22.7 |