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2026 ballot measure forecast

Washington Initiative Measure No. IL26-638

Girls' sports limited to biological females

Bars students defined as biologically male from girls' interschool sports and requires a provider statement verifying sex to participate. The forecast has Yes at 53.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 71% chance to pass.

Leans passCitizen initiated statuteTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
71%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
53.9%
80% range 45 to 63
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
58.1%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
48.6% Yes
Polls
58.1% Yes
Forecast
53.9% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Let's Go Washington (Brian Heywood) initiative to the Legislature, 400,000 plus signatures; Legislature did not act; WEA and Northwest Progressive Institute oppose.

Also on the Washington ballot

Initiative Measure No. IL26-001
Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement
31%
Initiative Measure No. IP26-645
Repeal millionaires income tax, ban income taxes
11%

Initiative Measure No. IL26-638 by county

Adams CountyAsotin CountyBenton CountyChelan CountyClallam CountyClark CountyColumbia CountyCowlitz CountyDouglas CountyFerry CountyFranklin CountyGarfield CountyGrant CountyGrays Harbor CountyIsland CountyJefferson CountyKing CountyKitsap CountyKittitas CountyKlickitat CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMason CountyOkanogan CountyPacific CountyPend Oreille CountyPierce CountySan Juan CountySkagit CountySkamania CountySnohomish CountySpokane CountyStevens CountyThurston CountyWahkiakum CountyWalla Walla CountyWhatcom CountyWhitman CountyYakima CountyKingPierceSnohomishSpokaneClarkThurstonKitsapWhatcomBentonYakimaSkagitCowlitz
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Spokane County: Yes +51,489Pierce County: Yes +45,122Clark County: Yes +33,180Snohomish County: Yes +25,791Benton County: Yes +25,468Yakima County: Yes +18,709Cowlitz County: Yes +14,369Lewis County: Yes +14,063Grant County: Yes +11,532Stevens County: Yes +10,397Thurston County: Yes +8,897Chelan County: Yes +8,781Skagit County: Yes +8,202Kitsap County: Yes +8,174Franklin County: Yes +7,777Grays Harbor County: Yes +6,885Mason County: Yes +6,260Kittitas County: Yes +6,077Clallam County: Yes +6,031Walla Walla County: Yes +5,941Douglas County: Yes +5,870Okanogan County: Yes +4,758Whatcom County: Yes +4,352Island County: Yes +4,103Asotin County: Yes +3,122Lincoln County: Yes +3,002Pend Oreille County: Yes +2,918Klickitat County: Yes +2,886Whitman County: Yes +2,358Pacific County: Yes +2,348Adams County: Yes +1,875Skamania County: Yes +1,619Ferry County: Yes +1,302Columbia County: Yes +970Wahkiakum County: Yes +784Garfield County: Yes +579King County: No +158,608Jefferson County: No +2,456San Juan County: No +1,947
Yes +365,991 net votes from 36 countiesStatewide Yes +7.7, a 202,980 vote marginNo +163,011 net votes from 3 counties

Projected vote

2,625,042 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,414,01153.9%
No1,211,03146.1%
Total2,625,042100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
King County313,299471,907785,20639.9%
Pierce County165,250120,128285,37857.9%
Snohomish County150,573124,782275,35554.7%
Spokane County119,58368,094187,67763.7%
Clark County105,37972,199177,57859.3%
Thurston County58,77949,882108,66154.1%
Kitsap County56,77948,605105,38453.9%
Whatcom County49,78545,43395,21852.3%
Benton County45,21019,74264,95269.6%
Yakima County36,76618,05754,82367.1%
Skagit County27,83119,62947,46058.6%
Cowlitz County26,14311,77437,91768.9%
Island County20,15516,05236,20755.7%
Clallam County19,74213,71133,45359.0%
Lewis County22,0257,96229,98773.4%
Chelan County18,7459,96428,70965.3%
Grays Harbor County15,6628,77724,43964.1%
Mason County15,3469,08624,43262.8%
Grant County17,2835,75123,03475.0%
Walla Walla County12,9987,05720,05564.8%
Franklin County13,6855,90819,59369.8%
Stevens County14,7614,36419,12577.2%
Jefferson County7,74510,20117,94643.2%
Kittitas County11,9105,83317,74367.1%
Okanogan County9,2764,51813,79467.2%
Whitman County8,0525,69413,74658.6%
Douglas County9,8033,93313,73671.4%
Pacific County6,0433,6959,73862.1%
San Juan County3,8475,7949,64139.9%
Klickitat County6,1673,2819,44865.3%
Asotin County5,2942,1727,46670.9%
Pend Oreille County4,3051,3875,69275.6%
Lincoln County4,0721,0705,14279.2%
Skamania County3,3561,7375,09365.9%
Adams County2,6838083,49176.9%
Ferry County2,0407382,77873.4%
Wahkiakum County1,4606762,13668.4%
Columbia County1,3824121,79477.0%
Garfield County7972181,01578.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Undisclosed · for the Yes side7,500 LV2026-08-3156242258.1%
How this is built
Initiative Measure No. IL26-638 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Washington's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theurbanist.org, kxly.com, en.wikipedia.org, kuow.org. All measures.