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2026 ballot measure forecast

Washington Initiative Measure No. IL26-001

Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement

Fully reinstates the Parents' Bill of Rights giving parents access to student academic, medical and counseling records and notifications, repealing 2025 changes. The forecast has Yes at 45.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 31% chance to pass.

Leans failCitizen initiated statuteEducationUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
31%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
45.2%
80% range 32 to 58
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
45.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
45.2% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Let's Go Washington initiative to the Legislature; Legislature did not act; WEA and LGBTQ advocates oppose.

Also on the Washington ballot

Initiative Measure No. IL26-638
Girls' sports limited to biological females
71%
Initiative Measure No. IP26-645
Repeal millionaires income tax, ban income taxes
11%

Initiative Measure No. IL26-001 by county

Adams CountyAsotin CountyBenton CountyChelan CountyClallam CountyClark CountyColumbia CountyCowlitz CountyDouglas CountyFerry CountyFranklin CountyGarfield CountyGrant CountyGrays Harbor CountyIsland CountyJefferson CountyKing CountyKitsap CountyKittitas CountyKlickitat CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMason CountyOkanogan CountyPacific CountyPend Oreille CountyPierce CountySan Juan CountySkagit CountySkamania CountySnohomish CountySpokane CountyStevens CountyThurston CountyWahkiakum CountyWalla Walla CountyWhatcom CountyWhitman CountyYakima CountyKingPierceSnohomishSpokaneClarkThurstonKitsapWhatcomBentonYakimaSkagitCowlitz
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Benton County: Yes +5,172Lewis County: Yes +3,883Grant County: Yes +3,482Stevens County: Yes +3,477Cowlitz County: Yes +2,709Yakima County: Yes +2,655Spokane County: Yes +1,693Franklin County: Yes +1,620Douglas County: Yes +1,402Lincoln County: Yes +1,090Pend Oreille County: Yes +908Kittitas County: Yes +873Chelan County: Yes +785Asotin County: Yes +718Okanogan County: Yes +699Adams County: Yes +617Walla Walla County: Yes +436Ferry County: Yes +359Grays Harbor County: Yes +325Columbia County: Yes +322Klickitat County: Yes +256Garfield County: Yes +205Skamania County: Yes +175Wahkiakum County: Yes +137King County: No +192,591Snohomish County: No +25,001Pierce County: No +15,994Whatcom County: No +11,066Thurston County: No +10,549Kitsap County: No +10,471Clark County: No +7,154Jefferson County: No +3,793Island County: No +2,907San Juan County: No +2,364Skagit County: No +2,278Clallam County: No +1,469Whitman County: No +670Pacific County: No +97Mason County: No +34
Yes +33,998 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide No +9.6, a 252,440 vote marginNo +286,438 net votes from 15 counties

Projected vote

2,625,042 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,186,30145.2%
No1,438,74154.8%
Total2,625,042100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
King County296,308488,899785,20737.7%
Pierce County134,692150,686285,37847.2%
Snohomish County125,177150,178275,35545.5%
Spokane County94,68592,992187,67750.5%
Clark County85,21292,366177,57848.0%
Thurston County49,05659,605108,66145.1%
Kitsap County47,45757,928105,38545.0%
Whatcom County42,07653,14295,21844.2%
Benton County35,06229,89064,95254.0%
Yakima County28,73926,08454,82352.4%
Skagit County22,59124,86947,46047.6%
Cowlitz County20,31317,60437,91753.6%
Island County16,65019,55736,20746.0%
Clallam County15,99217,46133,45347.8%
Lewis County16,93513,05229,98756.5%
Chelan County14,74713,96228,70951.4%
Grays Harbor County12,38212,05724,43950.7%
Mason County12,19912,23324,43249.9%
Grant County13,2589,77623,03457.6%
Walla Walla County10,2459,80920,05451.1%
Franklin County10,6068,98619,59254.1%
Stevens County11,3017,82419,12559.1%
Jefferson County7,07710,87017,94739.4%
Kittitas County9,3088,43517,74352.5%
Okanogan County7,2466,54713,79352.5%
Whitman County6,5387,20813,74647.6%
Douglas County7,5696,16713,73655.1%
Pacific County4,8214,9189,73949.5%
San Juan County3,6386,0029,64037.7%
Klickitat County4,8524,5969,44851.4%
Asotin County4,0923,3747,46654.8%
Pend Oreille County3,3002,3925,69258.0%
Lincoln County3,1162,0265,14260.6%
Skamania County2,6342,4595,09351.7%
Adams County2,0541,4373,49158.8%
Ferry County1,5691,2102,77956.5%
Wahkiakum County1,1369992,13553.2%
Columbia County1,0587361,79459.0%
Garfield County6104051,01560.1%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Initiative Measure No. IL26-001 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Washington's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theurbanist.org, kxly.com. All measures.