2026 ballot measure forecast
Utah Amendment B
60 percent vote for tax raising initiatives
Requires 60 percent voter approval for citizen initiatives that create, raise or expand taxes. The forecast has Yes at 56.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 82% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
82%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
56.0%80% range 48 to 65
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
61.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 49.0% Yes
- Polls
- 61.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 56.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Amendment B itself needs a simple majority.
The campaign
Sponsored by Sen. Lincoln Fillmore and Rep. Jason Kyle, backed by Utah Taxpayers Association and Taxpayer Shield PAC; opposed by Utahns Protecting Our Constitution (Better Boundaries), described as a million dollar campaign.
Also on the Utah ballot
Amendment A
Flexible publication of proposed amendments
91%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +121,222 net votes from 26 countiesStatewide Yes +12.1, a 114,680 vote marginNo +6,542 net votes from 3 counties
Projected vote
948,076 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 531,378 | 56.0% |
| No | 416,698 | 44.0% |
| Total | 948,076 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake County | 159,676 | 165,561 | 325,237 | 49.1% |
| Utah County | 114,734 | 77,081 | 191,815 | 59.8% |
| Davis County | 59,413 | 45,882 | 105,295 | 56.4% |
| Weber County | 39,483 | 30,885 | 70,368 | 56.1% |
| Washington County | 38,686 | 22,927 | 61,613 | 62.8% |
| Cache County | 22,679 | 16,035 | 38,714 | 58.6% |
| Tooele County | 12,767 | 8,492 | 21,259 | 60.1% |
| Box Elder County | 11,947 | 6,332 | 18,279 | 65.4% |
| Iron County | 11,422 | 6,383 | 17,805 | 64.2% |
| Summit County | 8,003 | 8,610 | 16,613 | 48.2% |
| Wasatch County | 6,661 | 5,039 | 11,700 | 56.9% |
| Uintah County | 6,979 | 3,056 | 10,035 | 69.5% |
| Sanpete County | 5,571 | 2,667 | 8,238 | 67.6% |
| Sevier County | 4,878 | 2,053 | 6,931 | 70.4% |
| Carbon County | 3,578 | 2,304 | 5,882 | 60.8% |
| Duchesne County | 4,005 | 1,681 | 5,686 | 70.4% |
| Morgan County | 2,812 | 1,505 | 4,317 | 65.1% |
| Juab County | 2,943 | 1,237 | 4,180 | 70.4% |
| Millard County | 2,880 | 1,207 | 4,087 | 70.5% |
| San Juan County | 2,177 | 1,813 | 3,990 | 54.6% |
| Grand County | 1,653 | 1,703 | 3,356 | 49.3% |
| Emery County | 2,211 | 957 | 3,168 | 69.8% |
| Kane County | 1,728 | 1,078 | 2,806 | 61.6% |
| Beaver County | 1,422 | 620 | 2,042 | 69.6% |
| Garfield County | 1,145 | 622 | 1,767 | 64.8% |
| Wayne County | 645 | 384 | 1,029 | 62.7% |
| Rich County | 620 | 295 | 915 | 67.8% |
| Piute County | 439 | 173 | 612 | 71.7% |
| Daggett County | 221 | 116 | 337 | 65.6% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | 602 RV | 2026-09-12 | 50 | 21 | 23 | 61.3% |
How this is built
Amendment B is forecast as a higher bars to pass measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Utah's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: deseret.com, ksl.com, axios.com. All measures.