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2026 ballot measure forecast

Utah Amendment A

Flexible publication of proposed amendments

Replaces the two month newspaper publication rule for proposed amendments, letting lawmakers set the format if notice is given 60 days before the election. The forecast has Yes at 63.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 91% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOtherUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
91%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
63.4%
80% range 51 to 75
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
63.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
63.4% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Passed Legislature unanimously; no opposition campaign.

Also on the Utah ballot

Amendment B
60 percent vote for tax raising initiatives
82%

Amendment A by county

Beaver CountyBox Elder CountyCache CountyCarbon CountyDaggett CountyDavis CountyDuchesne CountyEmery CountyGarfield CountyGrand CountyIron CountyJuab CountyKane CountyMillard CountyMorgan CountyPiute CountyRich CountySalt Lake CountySan Juan CountySanpete CountySevier CountySummit CountyTooele CountyUintah CountyUtah CountyWasatch CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWeber CountySalt LakeUtahDavisWeberWashingtonCacheTooeleBox ElderIronSummitWasatchUintah
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Salt Lake County: Yes +87,251Utah County: Yes +51,459Davis County: Yes +28,247Weber County: Yes +18,878Washington County: Yes +16,529Cache County: Yes +10,386Tooele County: Yes +5,703Box Elder County: Yes +4,904Iron County: Yes +4,776Summit County: Yes +4,457Wasatch County: Yes +3,139Uintah County: Yes +2,692Sanpete County: Yes +2,210Sevier County: Yes +1,860Carbon County: Yes +1,578Duchesne County: Yes +1,526Morgan County: Yes +1,158Juab County: Yes +1,122Millard County: Yes +1,097San Juan County: Yes +1,070Grand County: Yes +900Emery County: Yes +850Kane County: Yes +752Beaver County: Yes +548Garfield County: Yes +474Wayne County: Yes +276Rich County: Yes +245Piute County: Yes +164Daggett County: Yes +91
Yes +254,342 net votes from 29 countiesStatewide Yes +26.8, a 254,342 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

948,076 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes601,20963.4%
No346,86736.6%
Total948,076100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Salt Lake County206,244118,993325,23763.4%
Utah County121,63770,178191,81563.4%
Davis County66,77138,524105,29563.4%
Weber County44,62325,74570,36863.4%
Washington County39,07122,54261,61363.4%
Cache County24,55014,16438,71463.4%
Tooele County13,4817,77821,25963.4%
Box Elder County11,5916,68718,27863.4%
Iron County11,2906,51417,80463.4%
Summit County10,5356,07816,61363.4%
Wasatch County7,4194,28011,69963.4%
Uintah County6,3643,67210,03663.4%
Sanpete County5,2243,0148,23863.4%
Sevier County4,3962,5366,93263.4%
Carbon County3,7302,1525,88263.4%
Duchesne County3,6062,0805,68663.4%
Morgan County2,7371,5794,31663.4%
Juab County2,6511,5294,18063.4%
Millard County2,5921,4954,08763.4%
San Juan County2,5301,4603,99063.4%
Grand County2,1281,2283,35663.4%
Emery County2,0091,1593,16863.4%
Kane County1,7791,0272,80663.4%
Beaver County1,2957472,04263.4%
Garfield County1,1216471,76863.4%
Wayne County6533771,03063.4%
Rich County58033591563.4%
Piute County38822461263.4%
Daggett County21412333763.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment A is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Utah's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: deseret.com. All measures.