2026 ballot measure forecast
Missouri Proposition A
Keep 2025 Republican-drawn congressional map
A Yes vote approves HB 1 (2025 special session), replacing Missouri's congressional map with the 2025 boundaries; a No vote keeps the 2022 map. The 2026 election is being held under the 2022 map. The forecast has Yes at 49.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 44% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
44%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
49.0%80% range 40 to 58
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
46.0%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 53.1% Yes
- Polls
- 46.0% Yes
- Forecast
- 49.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. Referendum petition by People Not Politicians; SoS tried to block it, courts put it on the ballot.
The campaign
No (repeal map): People Not Politicians, about $800K in TV ads booked. Yes (keep map): Missouri GOP committee resolution, Act for Missouri; Put Missouri First PAC has spent $2.9M, mostly on petition-stage fights and litigation.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +246,392 net votes from 108 countiesStatewide Yes +1.8, a 32,223 vote marginNo +214,169 net votes from 7 counties
Projected vote
1,783,935 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 908,079 | 50.9% |
| No | 875,856 | 49.1% |
| Total | 1,783,935 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | 99,886 | 206,463 | 306,349 | 32.6% |
| Jackson County | 82,867 | 108,549 | 191,416 | 43.3% |
| St. Charles County | 65,078 | 69,034 | 134,112 | 48.5% |
| Greene County | 42,690 | 42,437 | 85,127 | 50.1% |
| Clay County | 33,792 | 43,190 | 76,982 | 43.9% |
| St. Louis County | 12,602 | 62,793 | 75,395 | 16.7% |
| Jefferson County | 39,669 | 29,734 | 69,403 | 57.2% |
| Boone County | 20,888 | 34,341 | 55,229 | 37.8% |
| Cass County | 19,154 | 15,640 | 34,794 | 55.0% |
| Platte County | 14,821 | 19,733 | 34,554 | 42.9% |
| Franklin County | 19,851 | 12,452 | 32,303 | 61.5% |
| Jasper County | 19,507 | 11,982 | 31,489 | 61.9% |
| Christian County | 19,348 | 10,588 | 29,936 | 64.6% |
| Cape Girardeau County | 14,796 | 9,160 | 23,956 | 61.8% |
| Cole County | 13,367 | 10,453 | 23,820 | 56.1% |
| Buchanan County | 11,101 | 9,743 | 20,844 | 53.3% |
| Lincoln County | 12,461 | 6,266 | 18,727 | 66.5% |
| Newton County | 11,620 | 5,473 | 17,093 | 68.0% |
| St. Francois County | 10,650 | 5,944 | 16,594 | 64.2% |
| Taney County | 10,760 | 4,988 | 15,748 | 68.3% |
| Camden County | 9,755 | 5,106 | 14,861 | 65.6% |
| Johnson County | 8,207 | 5,822 | 14,029 | 58.5% |
| Callaway County | 7,547 | 4,975 | 12,522 | 60.3% |
| Warren County | 7,405 | 4,307 | 11,712 | 63.2% |
| Webster County | 8,110 | 3,489 | 11,599 | 69.9% |
| Phelps County | 6,873 | 4,569 | 11,442 | 60.1% |
| Stone County | 7,729 | 3,408 | 11,137 | 69.4% |
| Howell County | 8,022 | 3,043 | 11,065 | 72.5% |
| Pettis County | 6,906 | 4,065 | 10,971 | 62.9% |
| Lawrence County | 7,621 | 3,139 | 10,760 | 70.8% |
| Butler County | 7,372 | 3,045 | 10,417 | 70.8% |
| Scott County | 6,965 | 3,278 | 10,243 | 68.0% |
| Lafayette County | 6,347 | 3,730 | 10,077 | 63.0% |
| Laclede County | 7,222 | 2,733 | 9,955 | 72.5% |
| Pulaski County | 6,124 | 3,493 | 9,617 | 63.7% |
| Barry County | 6,647 | 2,760 | 9,407 | 70.7% |
| Polk County | 6,473 | 2,821 | 9,294 | 69.6% |
| Stoddard County | 6,098 | 1,846 | 7,944 | 76.8% |
| Marion County | 4,988 | 2,692 | 7,680 | 64.9% |
| Miller County | 5,547 | 2,066 | 7,613 | 72.9% |
| Ray County | 4,232 | 2,503 | 6,735 | 62.8% |
| Texas County | 5,081 | 1,654 | 6,735 | 75.4% |
| Clinton County | 4,079 | 2,449 | 6,528 | 62.5% |
| Randolph County | 4,143 | 2,268 | 6,411 | 64.6% |
| Henry County | 4,091 | 2,222 | 6,313 | 64.8% |
| Crawford County | 4,376 | 1,889 | 6,265 | 69.8% |
| Benton County | 4,219 | 1,975 | 6,194 | 68.1% |
| Adair County | 3,433 | 2,729 | 6,162 | 55.7% |
| Audrain County | 3,794 | 2,291 | 6,085 | 62.4% |
| Washington County | 4,229 | 1,683 | 5,912 | 71.5% |
| Dunklin County | 4,083 | 1,783 | 5,866 | 69.6% |
| Andrew County | 3,713 | 2,049 | 5,762 | 64.4% |
| Nodaway County | 3,474 | 2,278 | 5,752 | 60.4% |
| Perry County | 4,046 | 1,688 | 5,734 | 70.6% |
| Ste. Genevieve County | 3,445 | 2,197 | 5,642 | 61.1% |
| Morgan County | 3,852 | 1,768 | 5,620 | 68.5% |
| Saline County | 3,234 | 2,261 | 5,495 | 58.9% |
| McDonald County | 4,030 | 1,441 | 5,471 | 73.7% |
| Wright County | 4,119 | 1,160 | 5,279 | 78.0% |
| Vernon County | 3,558 | 1,641 | 5,199 | 68.4% |
| Cooper County | 3,174 | 1,995 | 5,169 | 61.4% |
| Dallas County | 3,493 | 1,410 | 4,903 | 71.2% |
| Bates County | 3,379 | 1,477 | 4,856 | 69.6% |
| Gasconade County | 3,195 | 1,449 | 4,644 | 68.8% |
| Osage County | 3,501 | 1,084 | 4,585 | 76.4% |
| Macon County | 3,175 | 1,397 | 4,572 | 69.4% |
| Pike County | 3,068 | 1,477 | 4,545 | 67.5% |
| Douglas County | 3,250 | 1,049 | 4,299 | 75.6% |
| Moniteau County | 2,986 | 1,261 | 4,247 | 70.3% |
| Cedar County | 3,119 | 1,083 | 4,202 | 74.2% |
| Dent County | 3,090 | 1,051 | 4,141 | 74.6% |
| Livingston County | 2,696 | 1,300 | 3,996 | 67.5% |
| New Madrid County | 2,588 | 1,384 | 3,972 | 65.2% |
| Bollinger County | 2,809 | 821 | 3,630 | 77.4% |
| Barton County | 2,676 | 861 | 3,537 | 75.7% |
| Montgomery County | 2,397 | 1,090 | 3,487 | 68.7% |
| Ripley County | 2,602 | 810 | 3,412 | 76.3% |
| Wayne County | 2,586 | 818 | 3,404 | 76.0% |
| Ralls County | 2,289 | 1,065 | 3,354 | 68.2% |
| Madison County | 2,381 | 953 | 3,334 | 71.4% |
| Linn County | 2,218 | 1,079 | 3,297 | 67.3% |
| Pemiscot County | 1,946 | 1,150 | 3,096 | 62.9% |
| Hickory County | 2,047 | 910 | 2,957 | 69.2% |
| Howard County | 1,778 | 1,148 | 2,926 | 60.8% |
| St. Clair County | 1,993 | 894 | 2,887 | 69.0% |
| DeKalb County | 1,973 | 835 | 2,808 | 70.3% |
| Maries County | 2,047 | 757 | 2,804 | 73.0% |
| Ozark County | 2,060 | 708 | 2,768 | 74.4% |
| Caldwell County | 1,907 | 840 | 2,747 | 69.4% |
| Oregon County | 1,989 | 704 | 2,693 | 73.9% |
| Carroll County | 1,882 | 764 | 2,646 | 71.1% |
| Lewis County | 1,807 | 821 | 2,628 | 68.8% |
| Iron County | 1,837 | 784 | 2,621 | 70.1% |
| Mississippi County | 1,709 | 910 | 2,619 | 65.3% |
| Grundy County | 1,801 | 748 | 2,549 | 70.7% |
| Monroe County | 1,744 | 797 | 2,541 | 68.6% |
| Dade County | 1,771 | 665 | 2,436 | 72.7% |
| Chariton County | 1,593 | 795 | 2,388 | 66.7% |
| Shannon County | 1,719 | 627 | 2,346 | 73.3% |
| Daviess County | 1,609 | 672 | 2,281 | 70.5% |
| Harrison County | 1,687 | 552 | 2,239 | 75.3% |
| Clark County | 1,339 | 588 | 1,927 | 69.5% |
| Gentry County | 1,342 | 585 | 1,927 | 69.6% |
| Shelby County | 1,372 | 540 | 1,912 | 71.8% |
| Reynolds County | 1,304 | 472 | 1,776 | 73.4% |
| Carter County | 1,292 | 389 | 1,681 | 76.9% |
| Atchison County | 1,083 | 494 | 1,577 | 68.7% |
| Sullivan County | 1,034 | 401 | 1,435 | 72.1% |
| Putnam County | 1,036 | 354 | 1,390 | 74.5% |
| Holt County | 1,015 | 361 | 1,376 | 73.8% |
| Schuyler County | 806 | 324 | 1,130 | 71.3% |
| Scotland County | 773 | 337 | 1,110 | 69.6% |
| Mercer County | 805 | 250 | 1,055 | 76.3% |
| Knox County | 751 | 302 | 1,053 | 71.3% |
| Worth County | 459 | 185 | 644 | 71.3% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
2 pollsHow this is built
Proposition A is forecast as a redistricting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Missouri's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.mo.gov, slu.edu, kctv5.com, kcur.org. All measures.