2026 ballot measure forecast

Maryland Question 3

Remove constitutional limits on congressional districting

Limits districting requirements to state legislative districts, sets no constitutional criteria for congressional maps, and lets the General Assembly give the Supreme Court of Maryland original jurisdiction over congressional map challenges; enables mid-decade congressional redistricting. The forecast has Yes at 45.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 19% chance to pass.

Likely to failConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureRedistrictingUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

19%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

45.2%

80% range 39 to 52

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

37.0%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 69.5% Yes
Polls: 37.0% Yes
Forecast: 45.2% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Simple majority. Ballot text rewritten by Supreme Court of Maryland order of Sept 3, 2026.

The campaign

Fight Back Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore, Democrats and unions support; Protect Maryland Votes (spokesman Doug Mayer) opposes; passed in August 2026 special session; no money totals found.

Also on the Maryland ballot

Question 1

Require budget to fund state worker contracts

>99%

Question 2

Temporary appointments to judicial disabilities commission

91%

Question 3 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +229,938 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide No +9.7, a 228,015 vote marginNo +457,953 net votes from 21 counties

Projected vote

2,354,427 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	1,063,206	45.2%
No	1,291,221	54.8%
Total	2,354,427	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Montgomery County	221,259	184,993	406,252	54.5%
Prince George's County	222,916	97,539	320,455	69.6%
Baltimore County	127,815	190,047	317,862	40.2%
Anne Arundel County	85,800	152,780	238,580	36.0%
Baltimore city	129,912	61,617	191,529	67.8%
Howard County	69,459	74,284	143,743	48.3%
Frederick County	39,846	77,303	117,149	34.0%
Harford County	29,315	82,570	111,885	26.2%
Carroll County	17,226	58,750	75,976	22.7%
Charles County	32,522	35,885	68,407	47.5%
Washington County	13,106	43,145	56,251	23.3%
St. Mary's County	10,923	32,560	43,483	25.1%
Calvert County	11,059	29,695	40,754	27.1%
Cecil County	8,095	30,605	38,700	20.9%
Wicomico County	10,472	25,686	36,158	29.0%
Allegany County	4,601	20,772	25,373	18.1%
Worcester County	5,933	19,175	25,108	23.6%
Queen Anne's County	5,216	18,653	23,869	21.9%
Talbot County	5,547	12,444	17,991	30.8%
Dorchester County	3,380	9,635	13,015	26.0%
Garrett County	1,752	10,621	12,373	14.2%
Caroline County	2,301	9,956	12,257	18.8%
Kent County	2,642	6,203	8,845	29.9%
Somerset County	2,109	6,303	8,412	25.1%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

3 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
UMBC Institute of Politics	776 LV	2026-09-27	25	53	19	32.3%
Ragnar Research Partners (R) and Lincoln Park Strategies (D) · for the No side	600 LV	2026-09-13	28	40	31	42.7%
Hart Research Associates · for the Yes side	600 LV	2026-09-10	40	35	25	44.3%

How this is built

Question 3 is forecast as a redistricting measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Maryland's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.maryland.gov , marylandmatters.org , nbcwashington.com. All measures.