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2026 ballot measure forecast

Maryland Question 2

Temporary appointments to judicial disabilities commission

Allows temporary substitute or recalled members on the Commission on Judicial Disabilities when a member is recused or a term expires. The forecast has Yes at 63.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 91% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOtherUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
91%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
63.4%
80% range 51 to 75
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
63.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
63.4% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority.
The campaign

No organized campaign reported.

Also on the Maryland ballot

Question 1
Require budget to fund state worker contracts
>99%
Question 3
Remove constitutional limits on congressional districting
19%

Question 2 by county

Allegany CountyAnne Arundel CountyBaltimore CountyCalvert CountyCaroline CountyCarroll CountyCecil CountyCharles CountyDorchester CountyFrederick CountyGarrett CountyHarford CountyHoward CountyKent CountyMontgomery CountyPrince George's CountyQueen Anne's CountySt. Mary's CountySomerset CountyTalbot CountyWashington CountyWicomico CountyWorcester CountyBaltimore cityMontgomeryPrince George'sBaltimoreAnne ArundelBaltimoreHowardFrederickHarfordCarrollCharlesWashingtonSt. Mary's
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Montgomery County: Yes +108,986Prince George's County: Yes +85,969Baltimore County: Yes +85,274Anne Arundel County: Yes +64,004Baltimore city: Yes +51,381Howard County: Yes +38,563Frederick County: Yes +31,428Harford County: Yes +30,015Carroll County: Yes +20,382Charles County: Yes +18,351Washington County: Yes +15,090St. Mary's County: Yes +11,665Calvert County: Yes +10,933Cecil County: Yes +10,382Wicomico County: Yes +9,700Allegany County: Yes +6,807Worcester County: Yes +6,736Queen Anne's County: Yes +6,403Talbot County: Yes +4,827Dorchester County: Yes +3,491Garrett County: Yes +3,319Caroline County: Yes +3,288Kent County: Yes +2,373Somerset County: Yes +2,256
Yes +631,623 net votes from 24 countiesStatewide Yes +26.8, a 631,623 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

2,354,425 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,493,02463.4%
No861,40136.6%
Total2,354,425100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Montgomery County257,619148,633406,25263.4%
Prince George's County203,212117,243320,45563.4%
Baltimore County201,568116,294317,86263.4%
Anne Arundel County151,29287,288238,58063.4%
Baltimore city121,45570,074191,52963.4%
Howard County91,15352,590143,74363.4%
Frederick County74,28942,861117,15063.4%
Harford County70,95040,935111,88563.4%
Carroll County48,17927,79775,97663.4%
Charles County43,37925,02868,40763.4%
Washington County35,67020,58056,25063.4%
St. Mary's County27,57415,90943,48363.4%
Calvert County25,84314,91040,75363.4%
Cecil County24,54114,15938,70063.4%
Wicomico County22,92913,22936,15863.4%
Allegany County16,0909,28325,37363.4%
Worcester County15,9229,18625,10863.4%
Queen Anne's County15,1368,73323,86963.4%
Talbot County11,4096,58217,99163.4%
Dorchester County8,2534,76213,01563.4%
Garrett County7,8464,52712,37363.4%
Caroline County7,7724,48412,25663.4%
Kent County5,6093,2368,84563.4%
Somerset County5,3343,0788,41263.4%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Question 2 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Maryland's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.maryland.gov. All measures.