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2026 ballot measure forecast

Indiana Public Question #2

Let city or town judges live in adjacent county

Amends Article 6, Section 6 so a city or town court judge may reside in the county where the court sits or in the nearest bordering county. The forecast has Yes at 63.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 91% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOtherUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
91%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
63.4%
80% range 51 to 75
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
63.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
63.4% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Majority of voters on the question.
The campaign

No organized campaigns reported.

Also on the Indiana ballot

Public Question #1
Allow judges to deny bail to dangerous defendants
>99%

Public Question #2 by county

Adams CountyAllen CountyBartholomew CountyBenton CountyBlackford CountyBoone CountyBrown CountyCarroll CountyCass CountyClark CountyClay CountyClinton CountyCrawford CountyDaviess CountyDearborn CountyDecatur CountyDeKalb CountyDelaware CountyDubois CountyElkhart CountyFayette CountyFloyd CountyFountain CountyFranklin CountyFulton CountyGibson CountyGrant CountyGreene CountyHamilton CountyHancock CountyHarrison CountyHendricks CountyHenry CountyHoward CountyHuntington CountyJackson CountyJasper CountyJay CountyJefferson CountyJennings CountyJohnson CountyKnox CountyKosciusko CountyLaGrange CountyLake CountyLaPorte CountyLawrence CountyMadison CountyMarion CountyMarshall CountyMartin CountyMiami CountyMonroe CountyMontgomery CountyMorgan CountyNewton CountyNoble CountyOhio CountyOrange CountyOwen CountyParke CountyPerry CountyPike CountyPorter CountyPosey CountyPulaski CountyPutnam CountyRandolph CountyRipley CountyRush CountySt. Joseph CountyScott CountyShelby CountySpencer CountyStarke CountySteuben CountySullivan CountySwitzerland CountyTippecanoe CountyTipton CountyUnion CountyVanderburgh CountyVermillion CountyVigo CountyWabash CountyWarren CountyWarrick CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWells CountyWhite CountyWhitley CountyMarionLakeHamiltonAllenSt. JosephPorterHendricksJohnsonVanderburghTippecanoeElkhartMonroe
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Marion County: Yes +58,641Lake County: Yes +33,521Hamilton County: Yes +31,476Allen County: Yes +25,954St. Joseph County: Yes +17,820Porter County: Yes +13,300Hendricks County: Yes +13,179Johnson County: Yes +12,200Vanderburgh County: Yes +11,723Tippecanoe County: Yes +11,166Elkhart County: Yes +11,024Monroe County: Yes +10,023Clark County: Yes +9,149Madison County: Yes +8,711LaPorte County: Yes +7,477Delaware County: Yes +7,356Hancock County: Yes +6,913Vigo County: Yes +6,568Floyd County: Yes +6,420Boone County: Yes +6,331Howard County: Yes +6,027Bartholomew County: Yes +5,556Morgan County: Yes +5,454Kosciusko County: Yes +5,448Warrick County: Yes +5,149Wayne County: Yes +4,185Dearborn County: Yes +4,116Grant County: Yes +3,990Dubois County: Yes +3,305Lawrence County: Yes +3,276Henry County: Yes +3,200Harrison County: Yes +3,134Shelby County: Yes +3,063DeKalb County: Yes +3,055Marshall County: Yes +3,030Noble County: Yes +2,949Jackson County: Yes +2,902Huntington County: Yes +2,740Whitley County: Yes +2,737Putnam County: Yes +2,623Montgomery County: Yes +2,573Steuben County: Yes +2,549Gibson County: Yes +2,453Jasper County: Yes +2,444Knox County: Yes +2,365Greene County: Yes +2,248Ripley County: Yes +2,226Jefferson County: Yes +2,225Cass County: Yes +2,212Miami County: Yes +2,193Wells County: Yes +2,177Wabash County: Yes +2,170Adams County: Yes +2,165Posey County: Yes +1,995Washington County: Yes +1,954Clinton County: Yes +1,929Decatur County: Yes +1,878Clay County: Yes +1,865Franklin County: Yes +1,858Jennings County: Yes +1,826Daviess County: Yes +1,805White County: Yes +1,720LaGrange County: Yes +1,672Randolph County: Yes +1,626Starke County: Yes +1,608Spencer County: Yes +1,598Scott County: Yes +1,567Fayette County: Yes +1,526Owen County: Yes +1,519Carroll County: Yes +1,415Sullivan County: Yes +1,368Fulton County: Yes +1,366Perry County: Yes +1,335Orange County: Yes +1,325Brown County: Yes +1,321Jay County: Yes +1,253Tipton County: Yes +1,230Fountain County: Yes +1,229Rush County: Yes +1,181Vermillion County: Yes +1,115Parke County: Yes +1,035Newton County: Yes +1,018Pike County: Yes +922Pulaski County: Yes +886Blackford County: Yes +789Martin County: Yes +767Crawford County: Yes +764Warren County: Yes +671Switzerland County: Yes +653Benton County: Yes +610Union County: Yes +538Ohio County: Yes +473
Yes +466,101 net votes from 92 countiesStatewide Yes +26.8, a 466,101 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

1,737,405 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,101,75363.4%
No635,65236.6%
Total1,737,405100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Marion County138,61479,973218,58763.4%
Lake County79,23645,715124,95163.4%
Hamilton County74,40242,926117,32863.4%
Allen County61,34935,39596,74463.4%
St. Joseph County42,12224,30266,42463.4%
Porter County31,43918,13949,57863.4%
Hendricks County31,15217,97349,12563.4%
Johnson County28,83816,63845,47663.4%
Vanderburgh County27,71015,98743,69763.4%
Tippecanoe County26,39315,22741,62063.4%
Elkhart County26,05815,03441,09263.4%
Monroe County23,69213,66937,36163.4%
Clark County21,62512,47634,10163.4%
Madison County20,59111,88032,47163.4%
LaPorte County17,67510,19827,87363.4%
Delaware County17,38810,03227,42063.4%
Hancock County16,3419,42825,76963.4%
Vigo County15,5258,95724,48263.4%
Floyd County15,1768,75623,93263.4%
Boone County14,9668,63523,60163.4%
Howard County14,2458,21822,46363.4%
Bartholomew County13,1337,57720,71063.4%
Morgan County12,8927,43820,33063.4%
Kosciusko County12,8787,43020,30863.4%
Warrick County12,1707,02119,19163.4%
Wayne County9,8935,70815,60163.4%
Dearborn County9,7295,61315,34263.4%
Grant County9,4315,44114,87263.4%
Dubois County7,8124,50712,31963.4%
Lawrence County7,7434,46712,21063.4%
Henry County7,5644,36411,92863.4%
Harrison County7,4094,27511,68463.4%
Shelby County7,2414,17811,41963.4%
DeKalb County7,2204,16511,38563.4%
Marshall County7,1624,13211,29463.4%
Noble County6,9704,02110,99163.4%
Jackson County6,8603,95810,81863.4%
Huntington County6,4773,73710,21463.4%
Whitley County6,4703,73310,20363.4%
Putnam County6,2013,5789,77963.4%
Montgomery County6,0823,5099,59163.4%
Steuben County6,0263,4779,50363.4%
Gibson County5,7983,3459,14363.4%
Jasper County5,7783,3349,11263.4%
Knox County5,5903,2258,81563.4%
Greene County5,3153,0678,38263.4%
Ripley County5,2633,0378,30063.4%
Jefferson County5,2593,0348,29363.4%
Cass County5,2283,0168,24463.4%
Miami County5,1852,9928,17763.4%
Wells County5,1452,9688,11363.4%
Wabash County5,1282,9588,08663.4%
Adams County5,1192,9548,07363.4%
Posey County4,7172,7227,43963.4%
Washington County4,6202,6667,28663.4%
Clinton County4,5602,6317,19163.4%
Decatur County4,4392,5617,00063.4%
Clay County4,4092,5446,95363.4%
Franklin County4,3922,5346,92663.4%
Jennings County4,3172,4916,80863.4%
Daviess County4,2662,4616,72763.4%
White County4,0642,3446,40863.4%
LaGrange County3,9522,2806,23263.4%
Randolph County3,8452,2196,06463.4%
Starke County3,8022,1945,99663.4%
Spencer County3,7782,1805,95863.4%
Scott County3,7052,1385,84363.4%
Fayette County3,6062,0805,68663.4%
Owen County3,5902,0715,66163.4%
Carroll County3,3451,9305,27563.4%
Sullivan County3,2341,8665,10063.4%
Fulton County3,2291,8635,09263.4%
Perry County3,1561,8214,97763.4%
Orange County3,1331,8084,94163.4%
Brown County3,1211,8004,92163.4%
Jay County2,9611,7084,66963.4%
Tipton County2,9071,6774,58463.4%
Fountain County2,9051,6764,58163.4%
Rush County2,7911,6104,40163.4%
Vermillion County2,6361,5214,15763.4%
Parke County2,4461,4113,85763.4%
Newton County2,4071,3893,79663.4%
Pike County2,1781,2563,43463.4%
Pulaski County2,0931,2073,30063.4%
Blackford County1,8651,0762,94163.4%
Martin County1,8121,0452,85763.4%
Crawford County1,8051,0412,84663.4%
Warren County1,5859142,49963.4%
Switzerland County1,5438902,43363.4%
Benton County1,4428322,27463.4%
Union County1,2717332,00463.4%
Ohio County1,1186451,76363.4%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Public Question #2 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Indiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: fox19.com, in.gov, in.gov. All measures.