2026 ballot measure forecast
Indiana Public Question #1
Allow judges to deny bail to dangerous defendants
Amends Article 1, Section 17 so courts may deny bail to people charged with offenses other than murder or treason when proof is evident and the state shows by clear and convincing evidence that no release conditions can protect the community. The forecast has Yes at 76.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
76.2%80% range 65 to 84
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 76.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 76.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Majority of voters on the question. SJR 1 first passed 2023, second passage Feb 2026 (House 75-11).
The campaign
Yes: Sen. Eric Koch and Rep. Chris Jeter, Republican legislative leadership. No: legislative Democrats and civil liberties critics; no organized campaign or money reported.
Also on the Indiana ballot
Public Question #2
Let city or town judges live in adjacent county
91%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +908,812 net votes from 92 countiesStatewide Yes +52.3, a 908,812 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
1,737,408 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1,323,110 | 76.2% |
| No | 414,298 | 23.8% |
| Total | 1,737,408 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion County | 150,021 | 68,566 | 218,587 | 68.6% |
| Lake County | 90,568 | 34,384 | 124,952 | 72.5% |
| Hamilton County | 87,227 | 30,101 | 117,328 | 74.3% |
| Allen County | 72,880 | 23,865 | 96,745 | 75.3% |
| St. Joseph County | 48,591 | 17,833 | 66,424 | 73.2% |
| Porter County | 37,196 | 12,382 | 49,578 | 75.0% |
| Hendricks County | 37,686 | 11,440 | 49,126 | 76.7% |
| Johnson County | 35,782 | 9,693 | 45,475 | 78.7% |
| Vanderburgh County | 32,927 | 10,771 | 43,698 | 75.4% |
| Tippecanoe County | 30,554 | 11,066 | 41,620 | 73.4% |
| Elkhart County | 32,203 | 8,890 | 41,093 | 78.4% |
| Monroe County | 25,092 | 12,270 | 37,362 | 67.2% |
| Clark County | 26,102 | 8,000 | 34,102 | 76.5% |
| Madison County | 25,182 | 7,288 | 32,470 | 77.6% |
| LaPorte County | 21,061 | 6,812 | 27,873 | 75.6% |
| Delaware County | 20,797 | 6,624 | 27,421 | 75.8% |
| Hancock County | 20,254 | 5,515 | 25,769 | 78.6% |
| Vigo County | 18,656 | 5,826 | 24,482 | 76.2% |
| Floyd County | 18,140 | 5,791 | 23,931 | 75.8% |
| Boone County | 17,909 | 5,692 | 23,601 | 75.9% |
| Howard County | 17,709 | 4,754 | 22,463 | 78.8% |
| Bartholomew County | 16,075 | 4,635 | 20,710 | 77.6% |
| Morgan County | 16,658 | 3,671 | 20,329 | 81.9% |
| Kosciusko County | 16,572 | 3,737 | 20,309 | 81.6% |
| Warrick County | 14,992 | 4,199 | 19,191 | 78.1% |
| Wayne County | 12,229 | 3,371 | 15,600 | 78.4% |
| Dearborn County | 12,677 | 2,665 | 15,342 | 82.6% |
| Grant County | 11,878 | 2,994 | 14,872 | 79.9% |
| Dubois County | 9,851 | 2,468 | 12,319 | 80.0% |
| Lawrence County | 9,936 | 2,274 | 12,210 | 81.4% |
| Henry County | 9,641 | 2,288 | 11,929 | 80.8% |
| Harrison County | 9,430 | 2,254 | 11,684 | 80.7% |
| Shelby County | 9,236 | 2,183 | 11,419 | 80.9% |
| DeKalb County | 9,190 | 2,195 | 11,385 | 80.7% |
| Marshall County | 9,049 | 2,245 | 11,294 | 80.1% |
| Noble County | 8,949 | 2,042 | 10,991 | 81.4% |
| Jackson County | 8,881 | 1,936 | 10,817 | 82.1% |
| Huntington County | 8,267 | 1,947 | 10,214 | 80.9% |
| Whitley County | 8,285 | 1,918 | 10,203 | 81.2% |
| Putnam County | 7,973 | 1,805 | 9,778 | 81.5% |
| Montgomery County | 7,761 | 1,830 | 9,591 | 80.9% |
| Steuben County | 7,594 | 1,909 | 9,503 | 79.9% |
| Gibson County | 7,446 | 1,696 | 9,142 | 81.4% |
| Jasper County | 7,465 | 1,647 | 9,112 | 81.9% |
| Knox County | 7,162 | 1,652 | 8,814 | 81.3% |
| Greene County | 6,858 | 1,524 | 8,382 | 81.8% |
| Ripley County | 6,903 | 1,397 | 8,300 | 83.2% |
| Jefferson County | 6,550 | 1,744 | 8,294 | 79.0% |
| Cass County | 6,640 | 1,604 | 8,244 | 80.5% |
| Miami County | 6,705 | 1,473 | 8,178 | 82.0% |
| Wells County | 6,698 | 1,415 | 8,113 | 82.6% |
| Wabash County | 6,575 | 1,511 | 8,086 | 81.3% |
| Adams County | 6,592 | 1,481 | 8,073 | 81.7% |
| Posey County | 5,959 | 1,480 | 7,439 | 80.1% |
| Washington County | 5,976 | 1,310 | 7,286 | 82.0% |
| Clinton County | 5,815 | 1,376 | 7,191 | 80.9% |
| Decatur County | 5,788 | 1,212 | 7,000 | 82.7% |
| Clay County | 5,728 | 1,224 | 6,952 | 82.4% |
| Franklin County | 5,799 | 1,127 | 6,926 | 83.7% |
| Jennings County | 5,632 | 1,175 | 6,807 | 82.7% |
| Daviess County | 5,632 | 1,095 | 6,727 | 83.7% |
| White County | 5,153 | 1,255 | 6,408 | 80.4% |
| LaGrange County | 5,133 | 1,099 | 6,232 | 82.4% |
| Randolph County | 4,962 | 1,102 | 6,064 | 81.8% |
| Starke County | 4,888 | 1,108 | 5,996 | 81.5% |
| Spencer County | 4,773 | 1,185 | 5,958 | 80.1% |
| Scott County | 4,759 | 1,084 | 5,843 | 81.4% |
| Fayette County | 4,677 | 1,009 | 5,686 | 82.3% |
| Owen County | 4,603 | 1,058 | 5,661 | 81.3% |
| Carroll County | 4,302 | 973 | 5,275 | 81.6% |
| Sullivan County | 4,165 | 936 | 5,101 | 81.7% |
| Fulton County | 4,144 | 948 | 5,092 | 81.4% |
| Perry County | 3,880 | 1,096 | 4,976 | 78.0% |
| Orange County | 4,029 | 912 | 4,941 | 81.5% |
| Brown County | 3,859 | 1,062 | 4,921 | 78.4% |
| Jay County | 3,833 | 836 | 4,669 | 82.1% |
| Tipton County | 3,728 | 855 | 4,583 | 81.3% |
| Fountain County | 3,800 | 781 | 4,581 | 83.0% |
| Rush County | 3,606 | 795 | 4,401 | 81.9% |
| Vermillion County | 3,340 | 816 | 4,156 | 80.4% |
| Parke County | 3,179 | 679 | 3,858 | 82.4% |
| Newton County | 3,127 | 669 | 3,796 | 82.4% |
| Pike County | 2,816 | 618 | 3,434 | 82.0% |
| Pulaski County | 2,701 | 599 | 3,300 | 81.8% |
| Blackford County | 2,390 | 551 | 2,941 | 81.3% |
| Martin County | 2,375 | 483 | 2,858 | 83.1% |
| Crawford County | 2,305 | 541 | 2,846 | 81.0% |
| Warren County | 2,061 | 439 | 2,500 | 82.4% |
| Switzerland County | 2,007 | 427 | 2,434 | 82.5% |
| Benton County | 1,836 | 438 | 2,274 | 80.7% |
| Union County | 1,647 | 357 | 2,004 | 82.2% |
| Ohio County | 1,448 | 315 | 1,763 | 82.1% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Public Question #1 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Indiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: indianacapitalchronicle.com, fox19.com, in.gov, in.gov. All measures.