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2026 ballot measure forecast

Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act

Restore abortion access before viability

Creates a statutory right to reproductive decisions including abortion before fetal viability, with emergencies after, and protects contraception and IVF. The forecast has Yes at 42.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 23% chance to pass.

Likely to failCitizen initiated statuteAbortionUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
23%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
42.2%
80% range 30 to 56
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
42.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
42.2% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative led by organizer Melanie Folwell (Idahoans United for Women and Family); 75,478 signatures; opposed by Idaho Chooses Life.

Also on the Idaho ballot

Advisory Question
Advisory vote on official state gun
49%
HJR 4
Only Legislature may legalize marijuana and drugs
86%
HJR 6
English as official state language
95%

Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act by county

Ada CountyAdams CountyBannock CountyBear Lake CountyBenewah CountyBingham CountyBlaine CountyBoise CountyBonner CountyBonneville CountyBoundary CountyButte CountyCamas CountyCanyon CountyCaribou CountyCassia CountyClark CountyClearwater CountyCuster CountyElmore CountyFranklin CountyFremont CountyGem CountyGooding CountyIdaho CountyJefferson CountyJerome CountyKootenai CountyLatah CountyLemhi CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMadison CountyMinidoka CountyNez Perce CountyOneida CountyOwyhee CountyPayette CountyPower CountyShoshone CountyTeton CountyTwin Falls CountyValley CountyWashington CountyAdaCanyonKootenaiBonnevilleBannockTwin FallsBonnerLatahNez PerceBinghamJeffersonMadison
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ada County: Yes +14,567Blaine County: Yes +4,021Latah County: Yes +1,456Teton County: Yes +1,018Valley County: Yes +43Kootenai County: No +20,409Canyon County: No +17,218Bonneville County: No +9,443Twin Falls County: No +7,276Jefferson County: No +5,862Bingham County: No +5,632Bonner County: No +5,197Madison County: No +4,716Idaho County: No +3,608Gem County: No +3,582Payette County: No +3,556Cassia County: No +3,385Franklin County: No +3,046Nez Perce County: No +2,493Minidoka County: No +2,425Fremont County: No +2,407Boundary County: No +2,373Elmore County: No +2,109Jerome County: No +1,839Gooding County: No +1,755Owyhee County: No +1,737Washington County: No +1,671Benewah County: No +1,495Bear Lake County: No +1,461Bannock County: No +1,418Clearwater County: No +1,406Caribou County: No +1,280Shoshone County: No +1,265Lemhi County: No +1,214Boise County: No +1,158Oneida County: No +1,042Adams County: No +662Custer County: No +636Lewis County: No +618Butte County: No +560Power County: No +516Lincoln County: No +499Camas County: No +155Clark County: No +110
Yes +21,105 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide No +15.6, a 106,129 vote marginNo +127,234 net votes from 39 counties

Projected vote

682,187 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes288,02942.2%
No394,15857.8%
Total682,187100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Ada County109,04794,480203,52753.6%
Canyon County28,10845,32673,43438.3%
Kootenai County25,82046,22972,04935.8%
Bonneville County16,13725,58041,71738.7%
Bannock County14,27815,69629,97447.6%
Twin Falls County10,57617,85228,42837.2%
Bonner County8,74913,94622,69538.6%
Latah County8,8737,41716,29054.5%
Nez Perce County6,4898,98215,47141.9%
Bingham County4,87310,50515,37831.7%
Jefferson County2,6398,50111,14023.7%
Madison County3,1867,90211,08828.7%
Blaine County7,2363,21510,45169.2%
Payette County2,7116,2678,97830.2%
Elmore County3,1205,2298,34937.4%
Gem County2,3665,9488,31428.5%
Idaho County2,1475,7557,90227.2%
Cassia County1,9035,2887,19126.5%
Jerome County2,1153,9546,06934.8%
Minidoka County1,8074,2326,03929.9%
Valley County2,8162,7735,58950.4%
Boundary County1,5923,9655,55728.6%
Franklin County1,0834,1295,21220.8%
Fremont County1,3373,7445,08126.3%
Teton County3,0272,0095,03660.1%
Shoshone County1,7913,0564,84737.0%
Gooding County1,4803,2354,71531.4%
Washington County1,3513,0224,37330.9%
Benewah County1,2102,7053,91530.9%
Owyhee County1,0702,8073,87727.6%
Lemhi County1,3172,5313,84834.2%
Boise County1,3042,4623,76634.6%
Clearwater County1,0712,4773,54830.2%
Bear Lake County5522,0132,56521.5%
Caribou County6351,9152,55024.9%
Power County9061,4222,32838.9%
Adams County7341,3962,13034.5%
Custer County7451,3812,12635.0%
Oneida County3961,4381,83421.6%
Lincoln County5061,0051,51133.5%
Lewis County4291,0471,47629.1%
Butte County2638231,08624.2%
Camas County16932449334.3%
Clark County6517524027.1%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Boise State University School of Public Service (2026 Idaho Public Policy Survey) A61281264.4%
How this is built
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act is forecast as a abortion measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: kmvt.com, idahocapitalsun.com, idahocapitalsun.com. All measures.