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2026 ballot measure forecast

Idaho HJR 6

English as official state language

Adds a constitutional provision making English the official language of Idaho. The forecast has Yes at 66.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOtherUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
95%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
66.6%
80% range 54 to 77
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
66.6% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
66.6% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Referred by Republican legislature; opponents note state law already designates English.

Also on the Idaho ballot

Advisory Question
Advisory vote on official state gun
49%
HJR 4
Only Legislature may legalize marijuana and drugs
86%
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
Restore abortion access before viability
23%

HJR 6 by county

Ada CountyAdams CountyBannock CountyBear Lake CountyBenewah CountyBingham CountyBlaine CountyBoise CountyBonner CountyBonneville CountyBoundary CountyButte CountyCamas CountyCanyon CountyCaribou CountyCassia CountyClark CountyClearwater CountyCuster CountyElmore CountyFranklin CountyFremont CountyGem CountyGooding CountyIdaho CountyJefferson CountyJerome CountyKootenai CountyLatah CountyLemhi CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyMadison CountyMinidoka CountyNez Perce CountyOneida CountyOwyhee CountyPayette CountyPower CountyShoshone CountyTeton CountyTwin Falls CountyValley CountyWashington CountyAdaCanyonKootenaiBonnevilleBannockTwin FallsBonnerLatahNez PerceBinghamJeffersonMadison
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Ada County: Yes +53,327Kootenai County: Yes +26,709Canyon County: Yes +26,110Bonneville County: Yes +14,729Twin Falls County: Yes +10,297Bannock County: Yes +8,950Bonner County: Yes +8,031Bingham County: Yes +6,107Nez Perce County: Yes +5,154Jefferson County: Yes +5,034Madison County: Yes +4,619Latah County: Yes +4,178Payette County: Yes +3,652Gem County: Yes +3,479Idaho County: Yes +3,376Cassia County: Yes +3,107Elmore County: Yes +3,015Franklin County: Yes +2,471Minidoka County: Yes +2,468Boundary County: Yes +2,318Jerome County: Yes +2,288Fremont County: Yes +2,201Gooding County: Yes +1,882Shoshone County: Yes +1,763Washington County: Yes +1,759Owyhee County: Yes +1,645Blaine County: Yes +1,627Benewah County: Yes +1,575Valley County: Yes +1,575Lemhi County: Yes +1,466Clearwater County: Yes +1,444Boise County: Yes +1,425Bear Lake County: Yes +1,201Caribou County: Yes +1,130Teton County: Yes +1,109Oneida County: Yes +858Power County: Yes +818Adams County: Yes +808Custer County: Yes +798Lewis County: Yes +612Lincoln County: Yes +582Butte County: Yes +487Camas County: Yes +187Clark County: Yes +103
Yes +226,474 net votes from 44 countiesStatewide Yes +33.2, a 226,474 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

682,188 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes454,33166.6%
No227,85733.4%
Total682,188100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Ada County128,42775,100203,52763.1%
Canyon County49,77223,66273,43467.8%
Kootenai County49,37922,67072,04968.5%
Bonneville County28,22313,49441,71767.7%
Bannock County19,46210,51229,97464.9%
Twin Falls County19,3639,06628,42968.1%
Bonner County15,3637,33222,69567.7%
Latah County10,2346,05616,29062.8%
Nez Perce County10,3125,15815,47066.7%
Bingham County10,7434,63615,37969.9%
Jefferson County8,0873,05311,14072.6%
Madison County7,8533,23411,08770.8%
Blaine County6,0394,41210,45157.8%
Payette County6,3152,6638,97870.3%
Elmore County5,6822,6678,34968.1%
Gem County5,8962,4178,31370.9%
Idaho County5,6392,2637,90271.4%
Cassia County5,1492,0427,19171.6%
Jerome County4,1791,8916,07068.8%
Minidoka County4,2541,7866,04070.4%
Valley County3,5822,0075,58964.1%
Boundary County3,9371,6195,55670.9%
Franklin County3,8411,3705,21173.7%
Fremont County3,6411,4405,08171.7%
Teton County3,0731,9645,03761.0%
Shoshone County3,3051,5424,84768.2%
Gooding County3,2991,4174,71670.0%
Washington County3,0661,3074,37370.1%
Benewah County2,7451,1703,91570.1%
Owyhee County2,7611,1163,87771.2%
Lemhi County2,6571,1913,84869.0%
Boise County2,5951,1703,76568.9%
Clearwater County2,4961,0523,54870.3%
Bear Lake County1,8836822,56573.4%
Caribou County1,8407102,55072.2%
Power County1,5737552,32867.6%
Adams County1,4696612,13069.0%
Custer County1,4626642,12668.8%
Oneida County1,3464881,83473.4%
Lincoln County1,0464641,51069.3%
Lewis County1,0444321,47670.7%
Butte County7873001,08772.4%
Camas County34015349369.0%
Clark County1726924171.4%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
HJR 6 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: legislature.idaho.gov, kmvt.com. All measures.