2026 ballot measure forecast
Florida Amendment 3
Large homestead property tax cut toward elimination
Exempts the first $250,000 of homestead value from non school levies on a schedule toward full elimination, limits local property tax uses and future business assessments, and requires five years residency for new residents to get the larger exemption. The forecast has Yes at 61.4 percent against the 60 percent it needs, a 62% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
62%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
61.4%80% range 56 to 66
Needs
60%60 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
59.8%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 60
2035506580- History and structure
- 69.1% Yes
- Polls
- 59.8% Yes
- Forecast
- 61.4% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure. Placed by HJR 1F.
The campaign
Yes on 3 backed by RPOF, Gov. DeSantis and Florida Realtors, which has spent about $18M; opposed by the Florida Democratic Party, many local officials, sheriffs and public employee unions; Florida Policy Institute estimates $12B recurring local revenue loss.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,915,730 net votes from 67 countiesStatewide Yes +22.8, a 1,915,730 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
8,395,016 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5,155,373 | 61.4% |
| No | 3,239,643 | 38.6% |
| Total | 8,395,016 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade County | 469,797 | 298,779 | 768,576 | 61.1% |
| Broward County | 379,474 | 287,001 | 666,475 | 56.9% |
| Palm Beach County | 343,956 | 235,574 | 579,530 | 59.4% |
| Hillsborough | 317,177 | 212,250 | 529,427 | 59.9% |
| Orange County | 271,416 | 201,088 | 472,504 | 57.4% |
| Pinellas County | 256,269 | 169,260 | 425,529 | 60.2% |
| Duval County | 225,886 | 152,630 | 378,516 | 59.7% |
| Lee County | 192,078 | 109,775 | 301,853 | 63.6% |
| Brevard County | 175,366 | 105,170 | 280,536 | 62.5% |
| Polk County | 164,127 | 98,545 | 262,672 | 62.5% |
| Volusia County | 150,982 | 90,036 | 241,018 | 62.6% |
| Pasco County | 151,947 | 88,597 | 240,544 | 63.2% |
| Sarasota County | 137,172 | 83,676 | 220,848 | 62.1% |
| Seminole County | 117,290 | 78,253 | 195,543 | 60.0% |
| Manatee County | 112,868 | 66,569 | 179,437 | 62.9% |
| Lake County | 108,237 | 63,362 | 171,599 | 63.1% |
| Collier County | 108,697 | 60,213 | 168,910 | 64.4% |
| Marion County | 106,306 | 59,452 | 165,758 | 64.1% |
| St. Johns County | 95,222 | 53,331 | 148,553 | 64.1% |
| St. Lucie County | 83,557 | 53,921 | 137,478 | 60.8% |
| Leon County | 73,614 | 57,404 | 131,018 | 56.2% |
| Escambia County | 80,225 | 48,504 | 128,729 | 62.3% |
| Osceola County | 72,315 | 48,868 | 121,183 | 59.7% |
| Alachua County | 62,669 | 48,642 | 111,311 | 56.3% |
| Clay County | 63,095 | 33,449 | 96,544 | 65.4% |
| Charlotte County | 61,871 | 34,063 | 95,934 | 64.5% |
| Okaloosa County | 57,554 | 29,793 | 87,347 | 65.9% |
| Sumter County | 56,581 | 30,382 | 86,963 | 65.1% |
| Hernando County | 55,131 | 29,704 | 84,835 | 65.0% |
| Santa Rosa County | 56,155 | 27,216 | 83,371 | 67.4% |
| Indian River County | 49,919 | 28,725 | 78,644 | 63.5% |
| Martin County | 49,977 | 28,052 | 78,029 | 64.0% |
| Citrus County | 51,547 | 26,042 | 77,589 | 66.4% |
| Bay County | 49,872 | 24,867 | 74,739 | 66.7% |
| Flagler County | 38,971 | 22,294 | 61,265 | 63.6% |
| Nassau County | 32,596 | 16,323 | 48,919 | 66.6% |
| Highlands County | 27,222 | 14,291 | 41,513 | 65.6% |
| Walton County | 25,716 | 11,757 | 37,473 | 68.6% |
| Monroe County | 21,623 | 13,177 | 34,800 | 62.1% |
| Putnam County | 19,199 | 9,555 | 28,754 | 66.8% |
| Columbia County | 17,821 | 8,701 | 26,522 | 67.2% |
| Levy County | 12,779 | 6,239 | 19,018 | 67.2% |
| Gadsden County | 10,243 | 8,459 | 18,702 | 54.8% |
| Jackson County | 12,094 | 6,102 | 18,196 | 66.5% |
| Suwannee County | 12,139 | 5,395 | 17,534 | 69.2% |
| Wakulla County | 10,384 | 5,304 | 15,688 | 66.2% |
| Okeechobee County | 8,469 | 4,016 | 12,485 | 67.8% |
| Baker County | 8,430 | 3,274 | 11,704 | 72.0% |
| Bradford County | 7,601 | 3,498 | 11,099 | 68.5% |
| DeSoto County | 6,630 | 3,425 | 10,055 | 65.9% |
| Washington County | 7,044 | 2,991 | 10,035 | 70.2% |
| Hendry County | 6,424 | 3,429 | 9,853 | 65.2% |
| Gilchrist County | 5,886 | 2,423 | 8,309 | 70.8% |
| Taylor County | 5,671 | 2,552 | 8,223 | 69.0% |
| Madison County | 4,780 | 2,724 | 7,504 | 63.7% |
| Holmes County | 5,517 | 1,927 | 7,444 | 74.1% |
| Jefferson County | 4,464 | 2,716 | 7,180 | 62.2% |
| Gulf County | 4,703 | 2,223 | 6,926 | 67.9% |
| Dixie County | 4,747 | 1,905 | 6,652 | 71.4% |
| Hardee County | 4,503 | 2,087 | 6,590 | 68.3% |
| Franklin County | 3,677 | 1,885 | 5,562 | 66.1% |
| Calhoun County | 3,704 | 1,535 | 5,239 | 70.7% |
| Union County | 3,662 | 1,507 | 5,169 | 70.8% |
| Hamilton County | 3,120 | 1,658 | 4,778 | 65.3% |
| Glades County | 2,905 | 1,384 | 4,289 | 67.7% |
| Lafayette County | 2,277 | 849 | 3,126 | 72.8% |
| Liberty County | 2,023 | 845 | 2,868 | 70.5% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 60.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
11 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 1,471 LV | 2026-10-19 | 50 | 30 | 14 | 58.2% |
| MDW Communications / EDGE Communications | 2,351 LV | 2026-10-10 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 57.7% |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 716 LV | 2026-10-09 | 56 | 21 | 23 | 63.7% |
| St. Pete Polls | 836 LV | 2026-10-07 | 42 | 35 | 23 | 49.7% |
| Targoz Market Research | 857 LV | 2026-10-04 | 63 | 21 | 15 | 68.7% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | 2026-10-01 | 55 | 26 | 19 | 61.3% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 800 LV | 2026-10-01 | 53 | 28 | 19 | 59.3% |
| Sachs Media | 800 RV | 2026-08-18 | 63 | 37 | 63.0% | |
| Sachs Media | 2026-08-03 | 64 | ||||
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2026-07-17 | 61 | 32 | 63.3% | ||
| Sachs Media | 850 RV | 2026-06-24 | 64 | 36 | 64.0% |
How this is built
Amendment 3 is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Florida's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov, cpapracticeadvisor.com, rismedia.com. All measures.