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2026 ballot measure forecast

Alaska Ballot Measure 3

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Amends state law to provide that only U.S. citizens may vote in any Alaska election. The forecast has Yes at 78.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteCitizen only votingUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
78.1%
80% range 67 to 86
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
78.1% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
78.1% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative (indirect statute); no campaign finance found.

Also on the Alaska ballot

Ballot Measure 2
Repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting
31%

Ballot Measure 3 by county

Wrangell City and BoroughKusilvak Census AreaBristol Bay BoroughHoonah-Angoon Census AreaPetersburg BoroughNorthwest Arctic BoroughHaines BoroughAleutians East BoroughKodiak Island BoroughLake and Peninsula BoroughYukon-Koyukuk Census AreaSoutheast Fairbanks Census AreaPrince of Wales-Hyder Census AreaSitka City and BoroughNorth Slope BoroughBethel Census AreaFairbanks North Star BoroughDillingham Census AreaKetchikan Gateway BoroughYakutat City and BoroughJuneau City and BoroughDenali BoroughMatanuska-Susitna BoroughAnchorage MunicipalityAleutians West Census AreaKenai Peninsula BoroughNome Census AreaSkagway MunicipalityCopper River Census AreaChugach Census AreaAnchorage MunicipalityMatanuska-SusitnaFairbanks North StarKenai PeninsulaJuneau City andKetchikan GatewayKodiak IslandBethel Census AreaSitka City andSoutheast Fairbanks Census AreaNome Census AreaNorth Slope
No +30Yes +30Click a borough to zoom · arrow keys step through boroughs by size
Where the margin is won
Anchorage Municipality: Yes +57,982Matanuska-Susitna Borough: Yes +30,309Fairbanks North Star Borough: Yes +21,230Kenai Peninsula Borough: Yes +18,018Juneau City and Borough: Yes +5,427Ketchikan Gateway Borough: Yes +3,188Kodiak Island Borough: Yes +2,839Southeast Fairbanks Census Area: Yes +2,354Bethel Census Area: Yes +1,823Sitka City and Borough: Yes +1,627Chugach Census Area: Yes +1,598Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area: Yes +1,365North Slope Borough: Yes +1,268Nome Census Area: Yes +1,155Northwest Arctic Borough: Yes +860Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area: Yes +848Copper River Census Area: Yes +819Petersburg Borough: Yes +809Dillingham Census Area: Yes +800Kusilvak Census Area: Yes +690Wrangell City and Borough: Yes +629Haines Borough: Yes +609Hoonah-Angoon Census Area: Yes +589Denali Borough: Yes +569Aleutians West Census Area: Yes +530Aleutians East Borough: Yes +328Lake and Peninsula Borough: Yes +212Bristol Bay Borough: Yes +211Skagway Municipality: Yes +179Yakutat City and Borough: Yes +114
Yes +158,979 net votes from 30 boroughsStatewide Yes +58.3, a 158,979 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 boroughs

Projected vote

272,611 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes215,79579.2%
No56,81620.8%
Total272,611100%
BoroughYesNoTotalYes share
Anchorage Municipality84,38726,405110,79276.2%
Matanuska-Susitna Borough35,3945,08540,47987.4%
Fairbanks North Star Borough27,7626,53234,29481.0%
Kenai Peninsula Borough21,8723,85425,72685.0%
Juneau City and Borough9,3653,93813,30370.4%
Ketchikan Gateway Borough4,2181,0305,24880.4%
Kodiak Island Borough3,7469074,65380.5%
Bethel Census Area3,1371,3144,45170.5%
Sitka City and Borough2,5118843,39574.0%
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area2,6192652,88490.8%
Nome Census Area1,9427872,72971.2%
Chugach Census Area2,1215232,64480.2%
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area1,9445792,52377.1%
North Slope Borough1,7384702,20878.7%
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area1,5196712,19069.4%
Kusilvak Census Area1,2795891,86868.5%
Northwest Arctic Borough1,2674071,67475.7%
Dillingham Census Area1,1673671,53476.1%
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area9793901,36971.5%
Petersburg Borough1,0502411,29181.3%
Haines Borough9032941,19775.4%
Copper River Census Area9751561,13186.2%
Aleutians West Census Area8042741,07874.6%
Wrangell City and Borough78115293383.7%
Denali Borough72815988782.1%
Skagway Municipality41323464763.8%
Aleutians East Borough4098149083.5%
Lake and Peninsula Borough3008838877.3%
Bristol Bay Borough2746333781.3%
Yakutat City and Borough1917726871.3%

Projected 2026 votes: each borough's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Ballot Measure 3 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alaska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org, akcommonground.org. All measures.