SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Alaska Ballot Measure 2

Repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting

Repeals the top four open primary and ranked choice general elections, restoring party primaries, and repeals 2020 campaign finance disclosure rules. The forecast has Yes at 47.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 31% chance to pass.

Leans failCitizen initiated statuteRanked choice and primariesUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
31%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
47.6%
80% range 42 to 54
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
48.1%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
45.8% Yes
Polls
48.1% Yes
Forecast
47.6% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Repeal Now (yes) raised 1.1 million, 846,000 from Aurora Action Network; No on 2 / Protect Alaska's Elections raised 5.75 million, 4 million from Unite America. 2024 repeal failed by 737 votes.

Also on the Alaska ballot

Ballot Measure 3
Only U.S. citizens may vote
>99%

Ballot Measure 2 by county

Wrangell City and BoroughKusilvak Census AreaBristol Bay BoroughHoonah-Angoon Census AreaPetersburg BoroughNorthwest Arctic BoroughHaines BoroughAleutians East BoroughKodiak Island BoroughLake and Peninsula BoroughYukon-Koyukuk Census AreaSoutheast Fairbanks Census AreaPrince of Wales-Hyder Census AreaSitka City and BoroughNorth Slope BoroughBethel Census AreaFairbanks North Star BoroughDillingham Census AreaKetchikan Gateway BoroughYakutat City and BoroughJuneau City and BoroughDenali BoroughMatanuska-Susitna BoroughAnchorage MunicipalityAleutians West Census AreaKenai Peninsula BoroughNome Census AreaSkagway MunicipalityCopper River Census AreaChugach Census AreaAnchorage MunicipalityMatanuska-SusitnaFairbanks North StarKenai PeninsulaJuneau City andKetchikan GatewayKodiak IslandBethel Census AreaSitka City andSoutheast Fairbanks Census AreaNome Census AreaNorth Slope
No +30Yes +30Click a borough to zoom · arrow keys step through boroughs by size
Where the margin is won
Matanuska-Susitna Borough: Yes +12,616Kenai Peninsula Borough: Yes +5,218Fairbanks North Star Borough: Yes +1,388Southeast Fairbanks Census Area: Yes +1,386Copper River Census Area: Yes +287Wrangell City and Borough: Yes +139Kodiak Island Borough: Yes +111Ketchikan Gateway Borough: Yes +100Denali Borough: Yes +73Petersburg Borough: Yes +70Aleutians East Borough: Yes +67Chugach Census Area: Yes +37Bristol Bay Borough: Yes +18Anchorage Municipality: No +13,498Juneau City and Borough: No +3,769Bethel Census Area: No +1,251Nome Census Area: No +719Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area: No +676Sitka City and Borough: No +637Kusilvak Census Area: No +617Hoonah-Angoon Census Area: No +349Skagway Municipality: No +280Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area: No +238Northwest Arctic Borough: No +227Dillingham Census Area: No +192Aleutians West Census Area: No +182Haines Borough: No +172North Slope Borough: No +88Yakutat City and Borough: No +71Lake and Peninsula Borough: No +32
Yes +21,510 net votes from 13 boroughsStatewide No +0.5, a 1,488 vote marginNo +22,998 net votes from 17 boroughs

Projected vote

272,612 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes135,56249.7%
No137,05050.3%
Total272,612100%
BoroughYesNoTotalYes share
Anchorage Municipality48,64762,145110,79243.9%
Matanuska-Susitna Borough26,54713,93140,47865.6%
Fairbanks North Star Borough17,84116,45334,29452.0%
Kenai Peninsula Borough15,47210,25425,72660.1%
Juneau City and Borough4,7678,53613,30335.8%
Ketchikan Gateway Borough2,6742,5745,24851.0%
Kodiak Island Borough2,3822,2714,65351.2%
Bethel Census Area1,6002,8514,45135.9%
Sitka City and Borough1,3792,0163,39540.6%
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area2,1357492,88474.0%
Nome Census Area1,0051,7242,72936.8%
Chugach Census Area1,3401,3032,64350.7%
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area1,1431,3812,52445.3%
North Slope Borough1,0601,1482,20848.0%
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area7571,4332,19034.6%
Kusilvak Census Area6261,2431,86933.5%
Northwest Arctic Borough7239501,67343.2%
Dillingham Census Area6718631,53443.7%
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area5108591,36937.3%
Petersburg Borough6816111,29252.7%
Haines Borough5126841,19642.8%
Copper River Census Area7094221,13162.7%
Aleutians West Census Area4486301,07841.6%
Wrangell City and Borough53639793357.4%
Denali Borough48040788754.1%
Skagway Municipality18446464828.4%
Aleutians East Borough27921249156.8%
Lake and Peninsula Borough17821038845.9%
Bristol Bay Borough17816033852.7%
Yakutat City and Borough9816926736.7%

Projected 2026 votes: each borough's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Data for Progress694 LV2026-10-164848449.3%
Alaska Survey Research1,512 LV2026-10-034753047.0%
How this is built
Ballot Measure 2 is forecast as a ranked choice and primaries measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alaska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: alaskapublic.org, alaskabeacon.com, akcommonground.org. All measures.