2026 forecast
Massachusetts Senate forecast
Ed Markey vs John Deaton. The model has Markey ahead by 32.7 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
14 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +39.3 and D +25.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +28.9 | |
| MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon | 800 LV | 17d | D +25.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 564 LV | 18d | D +23.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 881 LV | 46d | D +19.2 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 800 RV | 58d | D +20.4 |
| University of New Hampshire | 623 LV | 108d | D +16.2 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 119d | D +24.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 603 LV | 172d | D +23.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 620 LV | 235d | D +29.2 |
| Cygnal (R) | 800 LV | 257d | D +25.1 |
| Suffolk University | 500 RV | 320d | D +22.2 |
| SurveyUSA | 775 RV | 584d | D +19.2 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Markey | Deaton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 59.5 | 36.5 |
| Women | 54% | 68.4 | 27.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 66.5 | 29.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 62.1 | 34.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 62.8 | 33.2 |
| 65+ | 28% | 66.9 | 29.2 |
| RaceWhite | 78% | 59.8 | 36.3 |
| Black | 6% | 89.3 | 7.1 |
| Latino | 8% | 74.1 | 21.7 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 81.1 | 14.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 53.3 | 42.8 |
| White women | 43% | 65.0 | 31.1 |
| Black men | 3% | 87.6 | 8.8 |
| Black women | 3% | 90.7 | 5.8 |
| Latino men | 4% | 72.1 | 23.8 |
| Latino women | 4% | 76.1 | 19.8 |
| All other races | 9% | 81.1 | 14.6 |