2026 forecast
Massachusetts Governor forecast
Maura Healey vs Michael Minogue. The model has Healey ahead by 26.7 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
14 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +34.0 and D +19.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +24.1 | |
| MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon | 800 LV | 17d | D +21.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 564 LV | 18d | D +16.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 881 LV | 46d | D +24.2 |
| UMass Amherst / YouGov | 800 RV | 58d | D +19.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 623 LV | 108d | D +19.2 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 119d | D +24.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Healey | Minogue |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 57.3 | 40.6 |
| Women | 54% | 66.6 | 31.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 63.8 | 34.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 59.7 | 38.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 60.9 | 37.1 |
| 65+ | 28% | 65.4 | 32.5 |
| RaceWhite | 78% | 57.2 | 40.8 |
| Black | 6% | 88.8 | 9.3 |
| Latino | 8% | 72.9 | 25.0 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 82.5 | 15.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 50.4 | 47.6 |
| White women | 43% | 62.7 | 35.3 |
| Black men | 3% | 86.7 | 11.4 |
| Black women | 3% | 90.6 | 7.5 |
| Latino men | 4% | 70.8 | 27.1 |
| Latino women | 4% | 74.9 | 23.0 |
| All other races | 9% | 82.5 | 15.3 |