Minnesota Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the Minnesota Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 67 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 3 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Minnesota Senate map
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 42 D to 25 REvery Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Zach Duckworth 2022 | Steven Schroer vs Zach Duckworth | R +6.7 | D +0.4 | 52% | 22,438 | 22,242 | 45,361 | Toss up |
| 24 | Carla Nelson 2022 | Simon Glaser vs Nels T. Pierson | R +3.8 | D +1.7 | 62% | 20,176 | 19,486 | 40,265 | Toss up |
| 54 | Eric Pratt 2022 | Rick Olson vs Ben Bakeberg | R +4.6 | D +2.3 | 65% | 20,809 | 19,861 | 41,289 | Lean D |
| 7 | Robert Farnsworth 2022 | Kim (Kotonias) McLaughlin vs Robert Farnsworth | R +13.7 | R +2.8 | 35% | 19,556 | 20,700 | 40,869 | Lean R |
| 58 | Bill Lieske 2022 | Mark Legvold vs Bill Lieske | R +6.5 | D +4.1 | 73% | 22,203 | 20,458 | 43,311 | Lean D |
| 2 | Steve Green 2022 | Dan R. Rogers vs Steve Green ยท Calvin Larson Jr (O) | R +16.5 | R +5.8 | 19% | 17,616 | 19,774 | 37,960 | Lean R |
| 32 | Michael Kreun 2022 | Chris Ford vs Michael Kreun | R +3.3 | D +5.9 | 82% | 22,055 | 19,582 | 42,271 | Lean D |
| 26 | Jeremy Miller 2022 | Jack Hedin vs Cherie Johnson | R +12.1 | R +6.0 | 18% | 18,767 | 21,183 | 40,558 | Likely R |
| 33 | Karin Housley 2022 | Nat Smith vs Karin Housley | D +0.6 | D +8.3 | 89% | 24,241 | 20,517 | 45,439 | Likely D |
| 48 | Julia Coleman 2022 | Dan Kessler vs Julia Coleman | D +0.2 | D +8.4 | 91% | 24,432 | 20,641 | 45,760 | Likely D |
| 14 | Aric Putnam 2022 | Aric Putnam vs Bernie Perryman | R +4.1 | D +9.4 | 93% | 18,144 | 15,035 | 33,685 | Likely D |
| 3 | Grant Hauschild 2022 | Grant Hauschild vs Andrea Zupancich | R +1.4 | D +9.4 | 92% | 23,991 | 19,876 | 44,536 | Likely D |
| 4 | Rob Kupec 2022 | Rob Kupec vs Austin Peterson | R +6.8 | D +10.8 | 95% | 19,814 | 15,967 | 36,326 | Likely D |
| 23 | Gene Dornink 2022 | Angie Hanson vs Gene Dornink | R +20.2 | R +11.9 | 4% | 15,703 | 19,957 | 36,203 | Likely R |
Projected Minnesota Senate vote
67 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 1,517,397 | 56.5% |
| Republicans | 1,132,182 | 42.1% |
| Independents and others | 38,171 | 1.4% |
| Total | 2,687,747 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.