2026 state legislative forecast
Minnesota House forecast
Democrats win control of the Minnesota House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations. All 134 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 6 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
78 to 88Median 83 ยท 68 for a majority
Favored to flip
17to D0to R
After 2024: 67 D, 67 R
Environment
D +12.5Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Minnesota House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 83 D to 51 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32A | Nolan West 2024 | Amanda Matchett vs Nolan West | R +7.4 | D +0.5 | 53% | 10,900 | 10,783 | 22,013 | Toss up |
| 33A | Patti Anderson 2024 | Angela Thompson vs Stacey Stout | R +7.6 | D +0.6 | 53% | 11,331 | 11,196 | 22,870 | Toss up |
| 7B | Cal Warwas 2024 | Dan Horoshak vs Cal Warwas | R +9.4 | D +1.4 | 58% | 10,248 | 9,963 | 20,519 | Toss up |
| 20A | Pam Altendorf 2024 | Heather Arndt vs Pam Altendorf | R +12.5 | R +1.4 | 40% | 10,312 | 10,607 | 21,238 | Toss up |
| 23B | Patricia Mueller 2024 | Christoph Dundas vs Patricia Mueller | R +11.3 | R +1.6 | 40% | 8,127 | 8,386 | 16,765 | Toss up |
| 3A | Roger J Skraba 2024 | Aaron Kania vs Roger J. Skraba | R +7.2 | D +1.6 | 60% | 11,020 | 10,665 | 22,015 | Toss up |
| 14A | Bernie Perryman 2024 | Abdi Daisane vs Mike Conway | R +6.6 | D +2.8 | 65% | 8,344 | 7,895 | 16,486 | Lean D |
| 48A | Jim Nash 2024 | Joe Brothers vs Jim Nash | R +9.4 | R +2.8 | 34% | 11,457 | 12,108 | 23,924 | Lean R |
| 37A | Kristin Robbins 2024 | Darci Smith vs Tom McKee | R +0.4 | D +5.1 | 78% | 12,340 | 11,136 | 23,833 | Lean D |
| 54B | Ben Bakeberg 2024 | Christopher Kartschoke vs Natalie Barnes | R +12.4 | R +5.9 | 19% | 10,384 | 11,677 | 22,397 | Lean R |
| 7A | Spencer Igo 2024 | Erin McCabe Ningen vs Spencer Igo | R +18.0 | R +7.1 | 15% | 9,315 | 10,730 | 20,350 | Likely R |
| 2A | Bidal Duran Jr 2024 | Reed J. Olson vs Bidal Duran Jr | R +7.1 | D +7.1 | 84% | 9,918 | 8,608 | 18,809 | Likely D |
| 58B | Drew Roach 2024 | Ed Fellows vs Drew Roach | R +19.6 | R +7.4 | 12% | 9,803 | 11,363 | 21,489 | Likely R |
| 31A | Harry Niska 2024 | Brian Walker vs Harry Niska | R +17.5 | R +7.7 | 13% | 9,992 | 11,654 | 21,976 | Likely R |
| 57A | Jon Koznick 2024 | JD Delgado vs Jon Koznick | R +15.4 | R +8.1 | 10% | 10,295 | 12,100 | 22,736 | Likely R |
| 45A | Andrew Myers 2024 | Tracey Breazeale vs Andrew Myers | D +1.7 | D +8.3 | 90% | 13,093 | 11,081 | 24,542 | Likely D |
| 11A | Jeff Dotseth 2024 | Chris Swanson vs Jeff Dotseth | R +3.8 | D +9.2 | 93% | 10,880 | 9,039 | 20,222 | Likely D |
| 34A | Danny Nadeau 2024 | Jason Heaser vs Danny Nadeau | D +0.9 | D +9.4 | 92% | 13,232 | 10,956 | 24,555 | Likely D |
| 36A | Elliott Engen 2024 | Jim DeMay vs Sebastian Stoss | D +2.1 | D +9.4 | 93% | 12,720 | 10,523 | 23,597 | Likely D |
| 26A | Aaron Repinski 2024 | Dan Wilson vs Aaron Repinski | R +0.3 | D +9.5 | 92% | 10,543 | 8,710 | 19,547 | Likely D |
| 18A | Erica Schwartz 2024 | Leah Hanson vs Erica Schwartz | R +1.3 | D +10.2 | 94% | 10,909 | 8,895 | 20,106 | Likely D |
| 41B | Tom Dippel 2024 | Jen Fox vs William Beck | R +2.0 | D +10.5 | 95% | 11,301 | 9,157 | 20,770 | Likely D |
| 57B | Jeff Witte 2024 | Brian Cohn vs Jeff Witte | D +2.1 | D +11.2 | 95% | 12,386 | 9,899 | 22,625 | Likely D |
Projected Minnesota House vote
134 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 1,569,613 | 58.4% |
| Republicans | 1,082,471 | 40.3% |
| Independents and others | 35,661 | 1.3% |
| Total | 2,687,750 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
Legislative ballot polls
Weight 0%| Pollster | Field end | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Polling | 2026-02-08 | 49 | 42 |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.