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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

Idaho Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Idaho Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 35 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 35On the ballot 35Idaho HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
5 to 8
Median 7 · 18 for a majority
Favored to flip
1to D1to R
After 2024: 6 D, 29 R
Environment
D +10.9
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Idaho Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats 37%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats <1%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats 83%District 16: Democrats >99%District 17: Democrats >99%District 18: Democrats >99%District 19: Democrats >99%District 20: Democrats <1%District 21: Democrats <1%District 22: Democrats <1%District 23: Democrats <1%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats 92%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats 39%District 30: Democrats <1%District 31: Democrats <1%District 32: Democrats <1%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats <1%District 35: Democrats <1%12678914232425262728293031323335
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 7 D to 29 R
District 16: Democrats win >99%District 17: Democrats win >99%District 18: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win 92%District 15: Democrats win 83%District 29: Democrats win 39%District 6: Democrats win 37%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 20: Democrats win <1%District 21: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 32: Democrats win <1%District 34: Democrats win <1%District 35: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
18 for a majority21011

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
29James D Ruchti 2024James D. Ruchti vs John CrowderR +12.9R +1.939%8,4708,80317,536Toss up
6Dan Foreman 2024Robin Weldy vs Dan ForemanR +19.3R +2.137%10,48010,92521,731Lean R
15Codi Galloway 2024Nancy Gregory vs Desi BurbankR +5.3D +6.583%10,2599,00519,557Likely D
26Ron Taylor 2024Ron Taylor vs Bryan Hyde · Shaila Tate (I)R +5.4D +9.292%9,5297,92717,722Likely D

Projected Idaho Senate vote

35 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats221,93831.8%
Republicans455,07865.1%
Independents and others21,9463.1%
Total698,966100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.