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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

Idaho House forecast

Republicans win control of the Idaho House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 70 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 4 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 70On the ballot 70Idaho SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
9 to 14
Median 12 ยท 36 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 9 D, 61 R
Environment
D +10.9
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Idaho House map

District 1A: Democrats <1%District 2A: Democrats <1%District 3A: Democrats <1%District 4A: Democrats <1%District 5A: Democrats <1%District 6A: Democrats 3%District 7A: Democrats <1%District 8A: Democrats <1%District 9A: Democrats <1%District 10A: Democrats <1%District 11A: Democrats <1%District 12A: Democrats <1%District 13A: Democrats <1%District 14A: Democrats <1%District 15A: Democrats 89%District 16A: Democrats >99%District 17A: Democrats >99%District 18A: Democrats >99%District 19A: Democrats >99%District 20A: Democrats <1%District 21A: Democrats <1%District 22A: Democrats <1%District 23A: Democrats <1%District 24A: Democrats <1%District 25A: Democrats <1%District 26A: Democrats 85%District 27A: Democrats <1%District 28A: Democrats <1%District 29A: Democrats 44%District 30A: Democrats <1%District 31A: Democrats <1%District 32A: Democrats <1%District 33A: Democrats <1%District 34A: Democrats <1%District 35A: Democrats <1%1A2A6A7A8A9A14A15A23A24A25A26A27A28A29A30A31A32A33A35A
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 12 D to 59 R
District 16A: Democrats win >99%District 16B: Democrats win >99%District 17A: Democrats win >99%District 18A: Democrats win >99%District 18B: Democrats win >99%District 19A: Democrats win >99%District 17B: Democrats win >99%District 19B: Democrats win 97%District 15A: Democrats win 89%District 26A: Democrats win 85%District 26B: Democrats win 58%District 29A: Democrats win 44%District 29B: Democrats win 39%District 15B: Democrats win 39%District 6A: Democrats win 3%District 33A: Democrats win <1%District 11B: Democrats win <1%District 4B: Democrats win <1%District 22A: Democrats win <1%District 4A: Democrats win <1%District 21A: Democrats win <1%District 1A: Democrats win <1%District 1B: Democrats win <1%District 2A: Democrats win <1%District 2B: Democrats win <1%District 3A: Democrats win <1%District 3B: Democrats win <1%District 5A: Democrats win <1%District 5B: Democrats win <1%District 6B: Democrats win <1%District 7A: Democrats win <1%District 7B: Democrats win <1%District 8A: Democrats win <1%District 8B: Democrats win <1%District 9A: Democrats win <1%District 9B: Democrats win <1%District 10A: Democrats win <1%District 10B: Democrats win <1%District 11A: Democrats win <1%District 12A: Democrats win <1%District 12B: Democrats win <1%District 13A: Democrats win <1%District 13B: Democrats win <1%District 14A: Democrats win <1%District 14B: Democrats win <1%District 20A: Democrats win <1%District 20B: Democrats win <1%District 21B: Democrats win <1%District 22B: Democrats win <1%District 23A: Democrats win <1%District 23B: Democrats win <1%District 24A: Democrats win <1%District 24B: Democrats win <1%District 25A: Democrats win <1%District 25B: Democrats win <1%District 27A: Democrats win <1%District 27B: Democrats win <1%District 28A: Democrats win <1%District 28B: Democrats win <1%District 30A: Democrats win <1%District 30B: Democrats win <1%District 31A: Democrats win <1%District 31B: Democrats win <1%District 32A: Democrats win <1%District 32B: Democrats win <1%District 33B: Democrats win <1%District 34A: Democrats win <1%District 34B: Democrats win <1%District 35A: Democrats win <1%District 35B: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
36 for a majority518

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
29ADustin W Manwaring 2024Mary Shea vs Dustin W. ManwaringR +12.9R +0.744%8,5778,69617,536Toss up
26BJack Nelsen 2024Kevin Marsh vs Lyle JohnstoneR +16.3D +1.358%9,6549,41619,360Toss up
29BTanya Burgoyne 2024Nate Roberts vs Jennifer MilesR +19.7R +1.639%9,3859,68519,360Toss up
15BDori Healey 2024Jae Etchart vs Dori HealeyR +18.1R +1.839%9,3639,70619,360Toss up
26AMike Pohanka 2024Anita Janis vs Mike Pohanka ยท Bella Schiffler (I)R +5.4D +7.185%9,3488,10817,722Likely D
15ASteve Berch 2024Steve Berch vs Steve KeyserR +5.3D +8.889%10,4808,78419,557Likely D

Projected Idaho House vote

70 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats359,36529.0%
Republicans845,20168.1%
Independents and others36,4732.9%
Total1,241,047100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.