2026 forecast
Illinois Governor forecast
JB Pritzker vs Darren Bailey. The model has Pritzker ahead by 24.1 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
102 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +31.2 and D +17.0. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +22.9 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Chicago News Weekly | 569 LV | 8d | D +20.1 |
| Victory Research | 1,208 LV | 318d | D +19.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pritzker | Bailey |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 55.4 | 38.4 |
| Women | 54% | 62.0 | 31.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 62.4 | 31.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 58.6 | 35.2 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 57.2 | 36.6 |
| 65+ | 28% | 59.5 | 34.2 |
| RaceWhite | 69% | 49.0 | 44.4 |
| Black | 14% | 88.3 | 6.7 |
| Latino | 11% | 73.2 | 21.6 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 78.9 | 14.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 31% | 43.7 | 49.8 |
| White women | 38% | 53.4 | 40.0 |
| Black men | 6% | 87.4 | 7.5 |
| Black women | 7% | 89.1 | 6.0 |
| Latino men | 5% | 70.4 | 24.3 |
| Latino women | 6% | 75.8 | 18.9 |
| All other races | 7% | 78.9 | 14.5 |