2026 forecast
Idaho Governor forecast
Terri Pickens vs Brad Little. The model has Little ahead by 25.9 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
44 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +18.0 and R +33.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +20.4 | |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 700 RV | 23d | R +13.0 |
| Change Research for the Stegner campaign | 1,213 LV | 71d | R +20.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pickens | Little |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 30.6 | 65.5 |
| Women | 51% | 39.4 | 56.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 37.2 | 58.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 34.5 | 61.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 32.9 | 63.2 |
| 65+ | 29% | 36.8 | 59.2 |
| RaceWhite | 87% | 32.1 | 64.0 |
| Latino | 8% | 48.0 | 48.0 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 61.7 | 33.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 26.6 | 69.6 |
| White women | 45% | 37.2 | 58.8 |
| Latino men | 4% | 45.1 | 50.8 |
| Latino women | 4% | 51.3 | 44.8 |
| All other races | 5% | 61.7 | 33.8 |