2026 forecast
Iowa Governor forecast
Rob Sand vs Zach Lahn, an open seat. The model has Sand ahead by 8.1 points, winning 93 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
99 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.5 and D +1.0. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +7.3 | |
| Emerson College/Nexstar Media | 650 LV | 3d | D +5.3 |
| CNN/SSRS | 801 LV | 4d | D +8.0 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 5d | D +10.7 |
| New York Times/Siena | 606 LV | 8d | D +10.7 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 1,008 LV | 11d | D +8.4 |
| NPR/Marist | 1,050 RV | 19d | D +9.4 |
| co/efficient (R) | 831 LV | 23d | D +7.7 |
| Cygnal (R) | 500 LV | 28d | D +5.4 |
| YouGov | 2,041 LV | 31d | D +9.1 |
| Emerson College | 750 LV | 38d | D +4.3 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 600 LV | 41d | D +6.2 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 47d | D +2.8 |
| Emerson College | 712 LV | 66d | D +6.3 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,003 RV | 104d | D +8.7 |
| New York Times/Siena | 600 LV | 104d | D +0.7 |
| Cygnal (R) | 600 LV | 112d | D +6.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Sand | Lahn |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 48.0 | 49.4 |
| Women | 54% | 56.9 | 40.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 59.5 | 37.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 53.5 | 44.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 49.3 | 48.2 |
| 65+ | 31% | 52.7 | 44.8 |
| RaceWhite | 90% | 50.0 | 47.5 |
| Black | 3% | 90.7 | 6.8 |
| Latino | 3% | 68.7 | 28.8 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 79.3 | 17.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 44.4 | 53.0 |
| White women | 49% | 54.6 | 42.8 |
| Black men | 1% | 89.2 | 8.3 |
| Black women | 2% | 92.1 | 5.4 |
| Latino men | 2% | 66.9 | 30.5 |
| Latino women | 2% | 70.5 | 27.0 |
| All other races | 4% | 79.3 | 17.7 |