2026 forecast
Georgia Senate forecast
Jon Ossoff vs Mike Collins. The model has Ossoff ahead by 11.1 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
159 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +16.9 and D +5.5. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +11.0 | |
| Wedgewood Polls | 600 LV | 6d | D +11.2 |
| Big Data Poll | 678 LV | 16d | D +10.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 16d | D +8.0 |
| YouGov | 3,303 LV | 21d | D +9.1 |
| Quantus Insights | 645 LV | 23d | D +5.7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,019 LV | 25d | D +8.5 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,091 LV | 27d | D +7.4 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 800 LV | 53d | D +8.8 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | 1,060 LV | 85d | D +10.3 |
| Wick | 1,175 LV | 101d | D +4.4 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,002 RV | 104d | D +11.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 624 RV | 392d | D +1.7 |
| TIPP Insights | 2,956 RV | 434d | R +0.9 |
| Cygnal (R) | 800 RV | 510d | D +4.5 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,426 RV | 530d | D +6.7 |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | 500 RV | 632d | D +11.6 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Ossoff | Collins |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 50.9 | 47.9 |
| Women | 53% | 58.5 | 40.2 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 56.7 | 42.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 54.7 | 44.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 54.7 | 44.0 |
| 65+ | 27% | 54.5 | 44.3 |
| RaceWhite | 58% | 36.1 | 62.6 |
| Black | 32% | 85.3 | 13.6 |
| Latino | 5% | 59.8 | 38.9 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 72.6 | 25.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 27% | 30.7 | 68.1 |
| White women | 31% | 40.8 | 57.9 |
| Black men | 15% | 81.6 | 17.3 |
| Black women | 17% | 88.5 | 10.3 |
| Latino men | 3% | 59.0 | 39.7 |
| Latino women | 3% | 60.6 | 38.1 |
| All other races | 6% | 72.6 | 25.8 |