2026 forecast
Connecticut Governor forecast
Ned Lamont vs Ryan Fazio. The model has Lamont ahead by 18.8 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
8 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +26.9 and D +10.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +18.4 | |
| University of New Hampshire | 540 LV | 18d | D +17.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 809 LV | 46d | D +15.2 |
| Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider | 1,000 RV | 75d | D +19.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 828 LV | 108d | D +13.2 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Lamont | Fazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 53.7 | 45.0 |
| Women | 54% | 63.1 | 35.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 59.0 | 39.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 55.2 | 43.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 57.8 | 40.9 |
| 65+ | 29% | 62.3 | 36.4 |
| RaceWhite | 73% | 51.6 | 47.1 |
| Black | 10% | 86.9 | 11.9 |
| Latino | 11% | 70.0 | 28.8 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 78.9 | 19.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 44.6 | 54.0 |
| White women | 40% | 57.3 | 41.3 |
| Black men | 5% | 84.2 | 14.6 |
| Black women | 5% | 89.2 | 9.6 |
| Latino men | 6% | 67.9 | 30.8 |
| Latino women | 6% | 71.9 | 26.8 |
| All other races | 6% | 78.9 | 19.6 |