2026 forecast
Arkansas Senate forecast
Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton. The model has Cotton ahead by 13.9 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
75 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +6.8 and R +20.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +10.5 | |
| J.L. Partners | 803 LV | 52d | R +15.1 |
| Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 58d | D +1.6 |
| 2040 Strategy Group (D) | 586 LV | 76d | R +4.5 |
| GrayHouse (R) | 550 LV | 242d | R +19.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Shoffner | Cotton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 37.1 | 58.9 |
| Women | 53% | 44.6 | 51.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 44.0 | 51.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 42.1 | 53.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 39.0 | 57.1 |
| 65+ | 31% | 41.2 | 54.9 |
| RaceWhite | 77% | 31.7 | 64.2 |
| Black | 14% | 81.6 | 15.3 |
| Latino | 4% | 53.7 | 42.3 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 63.2 | 31.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 26.8 | 69.3 |
| White women | 41% | 36.1 | 59.9 |
| Black men | 7% | 77.9 | 19.0 |
| Black women | 7% | 85.0 | 11.9 |
| Latino men | 2% | 52.3 | 43.5 |
| Latino women | 2% | 55.0 | 41.1 |
| All other races | 5% | 63.2 | 31.9 |