2026 forecast
Arkansas Governor forecast
Fredrick Love vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders. The model has Sanders ahead by 14.2 points, winning 98 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
75 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +6.5 and R +21.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +3.8 | |
| J.L. Partners (R) | 803 LV | 52d | R +2.4 |
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 58d | R +4.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Love | Sanders |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 36.5 | 58.4 |
| Women | 53% | 43.8 | 51.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 43.2 | 51.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 41.3 | 53.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 38.3 | 56.6 |
| 65+ | 32% | 40.6 | 54.4 |
| RaceWhite | 77% | 31.1 | 63.7 |
| Black | 14% | 80.7 | 15.2 |
| Latino | 4% | 52.8 | 42.1 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 62.1 | 31.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 36% | 26.1 | 68.7 |
| White women | 41% | 35.3 | 59.4 |
| Black men | 7% | 77.0 | 18.9 |
| Black women | 7% | 84.1 | 11.9 |
| Latino men | 2% | 51.4 | 43.3 |
| Latino women | 2% | 54.1 | 40.9 |
| All other races | 5% | 62.1 | 31.7 |