2026 forecast
Alaska Governor forecast
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs Bernadette Wilson, an open seat. The model has Kreiss-Tomkins ahead by 16.4 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
30 boroughsD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +22.6 and D +10.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +3.6 | |
| Alaska Survey Research | 1,512 LV | 6d | D +7.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | 504 LV | 8d | D +3.6 |
| Cygnal (R) | 502 LV | 12d | D +5.3 |
| co/efficient (R) | 799 LV | 22d | D +3.7 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 800 LV | 28d | R +1.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 48.9 | 20.3 |
| Women | 51% | 55.3 | 17.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 17% | 55.5 | 16.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 26% | 52.8 | 18.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 49.3 | 20.2 |
| 65+ | 25% | 52.9 | 18.8 |
| RaceWhite | 70% | 45.9 | 21.9 |
| Black | 3% | 80.4 | 3.3 |
| Latino | 5% | 59.9 | 14.9 |
| Asian and other | 22% | 66.2 | 12.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 40.2 | 24.6 |
| White women | 37% | 51.2 | 19.4 |
| Black men | 2% | 77.9 | 3.9 |
| Black women | 2% | 82.8 | 2.8 |
| Latino men | 3% | 56.6 | 16.7 |
| Latino women | 3% | 63.6 | 12.8 |
| All other races | 22% | 66.2 | 12.0 |