2026 forecast · Wyoming Secretary Of State
Robert Short is all but certain to win Wyoming's secretary of state race.
Bryan McCarty vs Robert Short, an open seat. The model has Short ahead by 35.1 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +35.1Updated October 22, 2026
Bryan McCarty
Democrat
28.6%
62,284 projected votes
Robert Short
Republican
63.8%
138,658 projected votes
100%Short
0%McCarty
Short all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Short wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
McCarty +5,629 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide R +35.1, a 76,375 vote marginShort +82,004 net votes from 21 counties
Projected statewide vote
217,402 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Short R | 138,658 | 63.8% |
| Bryan McCarty D | 62,284 | 28.6% |
| Other candidates | 16,458 | 7.6% |
| Total | 217,402 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
23 counties| County | McCarty | Short | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 62,286 | 138,661 | 16,453 | 217,400 | R +35.1 |
| Laramie County | 13,006 | 19,032 | 2,624 | 34,662 | R +17.4 |
| Natrona County | 7,376 | 17,171 | 2,011 | 26,558 | R +36.9 |
| Campbell County | 1,982 | 11,687 | 1,119 | 14,788 | R +65.6 |
| Albany County | 7,287 | 6,118 | 1,097 | 14,502 | D +8.1 |
| Fremont County | 4,491 | 8,783 | 1,087 | 14,361 | R +29.9 |
| Park County | 2,887 | 9,811 | 1,040 | 13,738 | R +50.4 |
| Sweetwater County | 3,863 | 8,533 | 1,014 | 13,410 | R +34.8 |
| Sheridan County | 3,190 | 9,093 | 1,005 | 13,288 | R +44.4 |
| Teton County | 7,229 | 2,769 | 818 | 10,816 | D +41.2 |
| Lincoln County | 1,403 | 6,386 | 639 | 8,428 | R +59.1 |
| Uinta County | 1,507 | 5,280 | 555 | 7,342 | R +51.4 |
| Converse County | 829 | 4,251 | 416 | 5,496 | R +62.3 |
| Carbon County | 1,213 | 3,599 | 394 | 5,206 | R +45.8 |
| Goshen County | 1,069 | 3,713 | 392 | 5,174 | R +51.1 |
| Big Horn County | 681 | 3,645 | 355 | 4,681 | R +63.3 |
| Johnson County | 702 | 3,081 | 309 | 4,092 | R +58.1 |
| Platte County | 807 | 2,931 | 306 | 4,044 | R +52.5 |
| Sublette County | 795 | 2,831 | 296 | 3,922 | R +51.9 |
| Crook County | 388 | 2,768 | 258 | 3,414 | R +69.7 |
| Washakie County | 557 | 2,438 | 245 | 3,240 | R +58.1 |
| Weston County | 400 | 2,317 | 223 | 2,940 | R +65.2 |
| Hot Springs County | 485 | 1,556 | 168 | 2,209 | R +48.5 |
| Niobrara County | 139 | 868 | 82 | 1,089 | R +66.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +26.3 and R +43.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +32.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +49.8 |
| Blend of every leg | R +38.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +38.0 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +35.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +26.3 and R +43.9.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | McCarty | Short | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||