2026 forecast · Wisconsin Secretary Of State
JoCasta Zamarripa is favored to win Wisconsin's secretary of state race.
JoCasta Zamarripa vs Jay Schroeder, an open seat. The model has Zamarripa ahead by 6.5 points, with a 82 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +6.5Updated October 22, 2026
JoCasta Zamarripa
Democrat
51.3%
1,540,942 projected votes
Jay Schroeder
Republican
44.8%
1,346,770 projected votes
82%Zamarripa
18%Schroeder
Zamarripa favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Zamarripa wins about 82 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Zamarripa +469,559 net votes from 18 countiesStatewide D +6.5, a 194,169 vote marginSchroeder +275,390 net votes from 54 counties
Projected statewide vote
3,006,001 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| JoCasta Zamarripa D | 1,540,942 | 51.3% |
| Jay Schroeder R | 1,346,770 | 44.8% |
| Pete Karas | 118,287 | 3.9% |
| Total | 3,006,001 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
72 counties| County | Zamarripa | Schroeder | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,540,943 | 1,346,774 | 118,284 | 3,006,001 | D +6.5 |
| Milwaukee County | 308,113 | 92,867 | 16,426 | 417,406 | D +51.6 |
| Dane County | 257,958 | 57,884 | 12,938 | 328,780 | D +60.9 |
| Waukesha County | 95,666 | 136,195 | 9,497 | 241,358 | R +16.8 |
| Brown County | 59,523 | 65,916 | 5,138 | 130,577 | R +4.9 |
| Outagamie County | 44,058 | 49,316 | 3,824 | 97,198 | R +5.4 |
| Racine County | 45,582 | 44,883 | 3,706 | 94,171 | D +0.7 |
| Winnebago County | 40,222 | 41,195 | 3,335 | 84,752 | R +1.1 |
| Washington County | 24,549 | 51,700 | 3,123 | 79,372 | R +34.2 |
| Kenosha County | 37,963 | 36,922 | 3,068 | 77,953 | D +1.3 |
| Rock County | 42,781 | 30,516 | 3,003 | 76,300 | D +16.1 |
| Marathon County | 27,893 | 38,636 | 2,725 | 69,254 | R +15.5 |
| La Crosse County | 36,215 | 24,329 | 2,480 | 63,024 | D +18.9 |
| Sheboygan County | 24,575 | 32,867 | 2,353 | 59,795 | R +13.9 |
| Ozaukee County | 25,117 | 28,552 | 2,198 | 55,867 | R +6.2 |
| Eau Claire County | 30,799 | 22,358 | 2,178 | 55,335 | D +15.3 |
| Walworth County | 20,554 | 30,173 | 2,077 | 52,804 | R +18.2 |
| Fond du Lac County | 18,411 | 31,278 | 2,035 | 51,724 | R +24.9 |
| St. Croix County | 20,849 | 27,429 | 1,978 | 50,256 | R +13.1 |
| Dodge County | 15,358 | 26,972 | 1,733 | 44,063 | R +26.4 |
| Jefferson County | 18,386 | 23,626 | 1,721 | 43,733 | R +12.0 |
| Manitowoc County | 15,599 | 23,462 | 1,600 | 40,661 | R +19.3 |
| Portage County | 19,182 | 17,262 | 1,493 | 37,937 | D +5.1 |
| Wood County | 15,155 | 20,282 | 1,452 | 36,889 | R +13.9 |
| Chippewa County | 13,446 | 18,465 | 1,307 | 33,218 | R +15.1 |
| Sauk County | 17,185 | 14,277 | 1,289 | 32,751 | D +8.9 |
| Columbia County | 15,360 | 14,047 | 1,205 | 30,612 | D +4.3 |
| Calumet County | 11,363 | 15,638 | 1,106 | 28,107 | R +15.2 |
| Waupaca County | 9,042 | 16,198 | 1,034 | 26,274 | R +27.2 |
| Polk County | 8,614 | 14,108 | 931 | 23,653 | R +23.2 |
| Grant County | 10,513 | 12,189 | 929 | 23,631 | R +7.1 |
| Barron County | 8,235 | 14,071 | 914 | 23,220 | R +25.1 |
| Oneida County | 9,228 | 12,028 | 871 | 22,127 | R +12.7 |
| Dunn County | 9,463 | 11,593 | 862 | 21,918 | R +9.7 |
| Douglas County | 12,272 | 8,745 | 861 | 21,878 | D +16.1 |
| Oconto County | 6,923 | 13,628 | 842 | 21,393 | R +31.3 |
| Pierce County | 9,190 | 11,279 | 838 | 21,307 | R +9.8 |
| Marinette County | 6,551 | 13,801 | 834 | 21,186 | R +34.2 |
| Shawano County | 6,205 | 13,351 | 801 | 20,357 | R +35.1 |
| Monroe County | 7,993 | 11,317 | 791 | 20,101 | R +16.5 |
| Green County | 10,441 | 8,254 | 766 | 19,461 | D +11.2 |
| Door County | 9,665 | 8,378 | 739 | 18,782 | D +6.8 |
| Lincoln County | 5,868 | 8,588 | 593 | 15,049 | R +18.1 |
| Vernon County | 7,215 | 6,912 | 579 | 14,706 | D +2.1 |
| Vilas County | 5,311 | 8,509 | 566 | 14,386 | R +22.2 |
| Trempealeau County | 5,929 | 7,322 | 542 | 13,793 | R +10.1 |
| Clark County | 4,106 | 8,794 | 528 | 13,428 | R +34.9 |
| Iowa County | 7,486 | 4,857 | 505 | 12,848 | D +20.5 |
| Waushara County | 4,320 | 7,836 | 498 | 12,654 | R +27.8 |
| Juneau County | 4,598 | 7,408 | 491 | 12,497 | R +22.5 |
| Adams County | 4,442 | 6,406 | 445 | 11,293 | R +17.4 |
| Kewaunee County | 3,740 | 6,721 | 428 | 10,889 | R +27.4 |
| Langlade County | 3,201 | 6,537 | 399 | 10,137 | R +32.9 |
| Bayfield County | 5,760 | 3,934 | 397 | 10,091 | D +18.1 |
| Sawyer County | 4,054 | 5,331 | 384 | 9,769 | R +13.1 |
| Taylor County | 2,457 | 6,921 | 384 | 9,762 | R +45.7 |
| Green Lake County | 3,055 | 6,289 | 383 | 9,727 | R +33.3 |
| Washburn County | 3,431 | 5,638 | 372 | 9,441 | R +23.4 |
| Burnett County | 3,261 | 5,674 | 366 | 9,301 | R +25.9 |
| Jackson County | 4,029 | 4,891 | 366 | 9,286 | R +9.3 |
| Marquette County | 2,992 | 4,876 | 322 | 8,190 | R +23.0 |
| Richland County | 3,871 | 3,916 | 319 | 8,106 | R +0.6 |
| Crawford County | 3,728 | 3,895 | 312 | 7,935 | R +2.1 |
| Ashland County | 4,309 | 3,270 | 310 | 7,889 | D +13.2 |
| Price County | 2,772 | 4,676 | 305 | 7,753 | R +24.6 |
| Lafayette County | 3,382 | 3,900 | 298 | 7,580 | R +6.8 |
| Rusk County | 2,355 | 4,531 | 282 | 7,168 | R +30.4 |
| Buffalo County | 2,801 | 3,846 | 272 | 6,919 | R +15.1 |
| Forest County | 1,574 | 2,848 | 181 | 4,603 | R +27.7 |
| Pepin County | 1,358 | 2,242 | 147 | 3,747 | R +23.6 |
| Iron County | 1,397 | 2,055 | 141 | 3,593 | R +18.3 |
| Florence County | 732 | 1,920 | 108 | 2,760 | R +43.0 |
| Menominee County | 1,212 | 244 | 60 | 1,516 | D +63.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.6 and R +2.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +2.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +6.7 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +6.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.6 and R +2.7.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Zamarripa | Schroeder | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||