2026 forecast · South Dakota Secretary Of State
Heather Baxter is very likely to win South Dakota's secretary of state race.
Terrence Davis vs Heather Baxter, an open seat. The model has Baxter ahead by 10.3 points, with a 91 percent chance of winning.
Likely RModel R +10.3Updated October 22, 2026
Terrence Davis
Democrat
42.9%
164,837 projected votes
Heather Baxter
Republican
53.2%
204,614 projected votes
91%Baxter
9%Davis
Baxter very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Baxter wins about 91 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Davis +14,929 net votes from 9 countiesStatewide R +10.3, a 39,781 vote marginBaxter +54,710 net votes from 57 counties
Projected statewide vote
384,435 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Heather Baxter R | 204,614 | 53.2% |
| Terrence Davis D | 164,837 | 42.9% |
| Tamara Lesnar | 14,983 | 3.9% |
| Total | 384,435 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
66 counties| County | Davis | Baxter | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 164,835 | 204,616 | 14,984 | 384,435 | R +10.3 |
| Minnehaha County | 44,127 | 35,908 | 3,246 | 83,281 | D +9.9 |
| Pennington County | 22,063 | 26,281 | 1,960 | 50,304 | R +8.4 |
| Lincoln County | 13,985 | 16,221 | 1,225 | 31,431 | R +7.1 |
| Brown County | 7,004 | 7,848 | 602 | 15,454 | R +5.5 |
| Brookings County | 6,533 | 6,873 | 544 | 13,950 | R +2.4 |
| Lawrence County | 5,232 | 7,789 | 528 | 13,549 | R +18.9 |
| Meade County | 3,973 | 8,695 | 514 | 13,182 | R +35.8 |
| Codington County | 4,379 | 7,208 | 470 | 12,057 | R +23.5 |
| Yankton County | 4,408 | 5,054 | 384 | 9,846 | R +6.6 |
| Davison County | 2,997 | 4,774 | 315 | 8,086 | R +22.0 |
| Hughes County | 3,090 | 4,509 | 308 | 7,907 | R +17.9 |
| Union County | 3,005 | 4,255 | 294 | 7,554 | R +16.5 |
| Beadle County | 2,461 | 3,766 | 253 | 6,480 | R +20.1 |
| Clay County | 3,472 | 1,946 | 220 | 5,638 | D +27.1 |
| Lake County | 2,161 | 2,951 | 208 | 5,320 | R +14.8 |
| Custer County | 1,850 | 3,257 | 207 | 5,314 | R +26.5 |
| Butte County | 1,159 | 3,214 | 177 | 4,550 | R +45.2 |
| Turner County | 1,333 | 2,568 | 158 | 4,059 | R +30.4 |
| Fall River County | 1,305 | 2,384 | 150 | 3,839 | R +28.1 |
| Roberts County | 1,840 | 1,817 | 148 | 3,805 | D +0.6 |
| Hutchinson County | 837 | 2,398 | 131 | 3,366 | R +46.4 |
| Charles Mix County | 1,210 | 2,009 | 131 | 3,350 | R +23.9 |
| Grant County | 1,155 | 2,044 | 130 | 3,329 | R +26.7 |
| Oglala Lakota County | 2,880 | 250 | 127 | 3,257 | D +80.8 |
| Hamlin County | 736 | 2,001 | 111 | 2,848 | R +44.4 |
| Spink County | 1,052 | 1,676 | 110 | 2,838 | R +22.0 |
| Moody County | 1,211 | 1,505 | 110 | 2,826 | R +10.4 |
| Bon Homme County | 905 | 1,772 | 109 | 2,786 | R +31.1 |
| McCook County | 889 | 1,678 | 104 | 2,671 | R +29.6 |
| Day County | 1,103 | 1,418 | 102 | 2,623 | R +12.0 |
| Kingsbury County | 899 | 1,580 | 101 | 2,580 | R +26.4 |
| Tripp County | 537 | 1,805 | 95 | 2,437 | R +52.0 |
| Walworth County | 617 | 1,541 | 88 | 2,246 | R +41.1 |
| Brule County | 803 | 1,337 | 87 | 2,227 | R +24.0 |
| Todd County | 1,842 | 291 | 87 | 2,220 | D +69.8 |
| Gregory County | 518 | 1,482 | 81 | 2,081 | R +46.3 |
| Deuel County | 653 | 1,335 | 81 | 2,069 | R +32.9 |
| Marshall County | 876 | 987 | 75 | 1,938 | R +5.7 |
| Edmunds County | 507 | 1,243 | 71 | 1,821 | R +40.4 |
| Hanson County | 485 | 1,150 | 66 | 1,701 | R +39.1 |
| Dewey County | 1,084 | 532 | 66 | 1,682 | D +32.8 |
| Clark County | 465 | 1,139 | 65 | 1,669 | R +40.3 |
| Hand County | 401 | 1,100 | 61 | 1,562 | R +44.7 |
| Stanley County | 496 | 984 | 60 | 1,540 | R +31.7 |
| Douglas County | 233 | 1,220 | 59 | 1,512 | R +65.2 |
| Perkins County | 281 | 1,110 | 56 | 1,447 | R +57.3 |
| Lyman County | 519 | 799 | 53 | 1,371 | R +20.4 |
| Aurora County | 382 | 808 | 48 | 1,238 | R +34.4 |
| Potter County | 247 | 882 | 46 | 1,175 | R +54.1 |
| McPherson County | 229 | 890 | 45 | 1,164 | R +56.8 |
| Corson County | 556 | 461 | 41 | 1,058 | D +8.9 |
| Sanborn County | 316 | 701 | 41 | 1,058 | R +36.3 |
| Miner County | 363 | 638 | 41 | 1,042 | R +26.4 |
| Bennett County | 472 | 526 | 41 | 1,039 | R +5.2 |
| Haakon County | 123 | 854 | 39 | 1,016 | R +71.9 |
| Faulk County | 219 | 753 | 40 | 1,012 | R +52.7 |
| Jackson County | 377 | 576 | 39 | 992 | R +20.1 |
| Jerauld County | 300 | 552 | 35 | 887 | R +28.4 |
| Sully County | 211 | 565 | 31 | 807 | R +43.9 |
| Ziebach County | 422 | 292 | 29 | 743 | D +17.6 |
| Campbell County | 141 | 562 | 28 | 731 | R +57.6 |
| Mellette County | 300 | 354 | 26 | 680 | R +8.0 |
| Harding County | 63 | 584 | 26 | 673 | R +77.4 |
| Hyde County | 152 | 428 | 24 | 604 | R +45.6 |
| Jones County | 81 | 379 | 19 | 479 | R +62.3 |
| Buffalo County | 310 | 107 | 17 | 434 | D +46.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +0.3 and R +20.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +10.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +18.3 |
| Blend of every leg | R +10.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +10.8 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +10.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +0.3 and R +20.4.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Davis | Baxter | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||