2026 forecast · South Carolina Secretary Of State
Mark Hammond is all but certain to win South Carolina's secretary of state race.
Jason Belton vs Mark Hammond, with Mark Hammond running again. The model has Hammond ahead by 18.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +18.6Updated October 22, 2026
Jason Belton
Democrat
40.2%
817,064 projected votes
Mark Hammond
Republican
58.8%
1,196,071 projected votes
100%Hammond
0%Belton
Hammond all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Hammond wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Belton +100,399 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide R +18.6, a 379,010 vote marginHammond +479,409 net votes from 34 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,033,471 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Hammond R | 1,196,071 | 58.8% |
| Jason Belton D | 817,064 | 40.2% |
| Other candidates | 20,334 | 1.0% |
| Total | 2,033,471 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
46 counties| County | Belton | Hammond | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 817,064 | 1,196,074 | 20,332 | 2,033,470 | R +18.6 |
| Greenville County | 76,529 | 132,568 | 2,112 | 211,209 | R +26.5 |
| Charleston County | 98,120 | 79,115 | 1,791 | 179,026 | D +10.6 |
| Horry County | 45,352 | 110,742 | 1,577 | 157,671 | R +41.5 |
| Richland County | 106,718 | 48,906 | 1,572 | 157,196 | D +36.8 |
| Spartanburg County | 36,547 | 81,409 | 1,191 | 119,147 | R +37.6 |
| Lexington County | 35,852 | 80,585 | 1,175 | 117,612 | R +38.0 |
| York County | 45,981 | 68,090 | 1,151 | 115,222 | R +19.2 |
| Berkeley County | 35,747 | 51,340 | 879 | 87,966 | R +17.7 |
| Beaufort County | 34,302 | 49,857 | 850 | 85,009 | R +18.3 |
| Anderson County | 18,831 | 57,246 | 769 | 76,846 | R +50.0 |
| Aiken County | 22,697 | 43,696 | 671 | 67,064 | R +31.3 |
| Dorchester County | 26,046 | 33,998 | 606 | 60,650 | R +13.1 |
| Florence County | 21,846 | 27,166 | 495 | 49,507 | R +10.8 |
| Pickens County | 10,600 | 37,788 | 488 | 48,876 | R +55.6 |
| Lancaster County | 14,098 | 27,076 | 416 | 41,590 | R +31.2 |
| Sumter County | 19,688 | 16,801 | 369 | 36,858 | D +7.8 |
| Oconee County | 7,206 | 25,946 | 335 | 33,487 | R +56.0 |
| Orangeburg County | 19,502 | 11,046 | 308 | 30,856 | D +27.4 |
| Georgetown County | 11,949 | 18,493 | 308 | 30,750 | R +21.3 |
| Kershaw County | 8,589 | 17,466 | 263 | 26,318 | R +33.7 |
| Greenwood County | 8,511 | 16,655 | 254 | 25,420 | R +32.0 |
| Laurens County | 6,406 | 17,199 | 239 | 23,844 | R +45.3 |
| Darlington County | 10,088 | 13,514 | 238 | 23,840 | R +14.4 |
| Cherokee County | 4,168 | 15,089 | 195 | 19,452 | R +56.1 |
| Newberry County | 4,479 | 10,105 | 147 | 14,731 | R +38.2 |
| Chesterfield County | 5,181 | 9,313 | 146 | 14,640 | R +28.2 |
| Colleton County | 6,050 | 8,363 | 146 | 14,559 | R +15.9 |
| Jasper County | 6,216 | 7,266 | 136 | 13,618 | R +7.7 |
| Clarendon County | 5,912 | 7,058 | 131 | 13,101 | R +8.8 |
| Chester County | 4,761 | 6,853 | 118 | 11,732 | R +17.8 |
| Williamsburg County | 7,281 | 4,290 | 117 | 11,688 | D +25.6 |
| Edgefield County | 3,363 | 7,266 | 107 | 10,736 | R +36.4 |
| Marion County | 5,924 | 4,334 | 104 | 10,362 | D +15.3 |
| Union County | 3,287 | 6,505 | 99 | 9,891 | R +32.5 |
| Abbeville County | 2,698 | 6,992 | 98 | 9,788 | R +43.9 |
| Dillon County | 4,271 | 4,995 | 94 | 9,360 | R +7.7 |
| Fairfield County | 5,529 | 3,619 | 92 | 9,240 | D +20.7 |
| Marlboro County | 4,463 | 3,584 | 81 | 8,128 | D +10.8 |
| Barnwell County | 3,132 | 4,323 | 76 | 7,531 | R +15.8 |
| Saluda County | 1,939 | 5,340 | 73 | 7,352 | R +46.2 |
| Hampton County | 3,816 | 2,754 | 66 | 6,636 | D +16.0 |
| Calhoun County | 2,747 | 3,562 | 63 | 6,372 | R +12.8 |
| Lee County | 3,893 | 2,352 | 63 | 6,308 | D +24.4 |
| McCormick County | 2,038 | 2,964 | 50 | 5,052 | R +18.3 |
| Bamberg County | 2,874 | 1,851 | 48 | 4,773 | D +21.4 |
| Allendale County | 1,837 | 594 | 25 | 2,456 | D +50.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +9.4 and R +27.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +3.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +41.3 |
| Blend of every leg | R +15.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +18.8 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +18.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +9.4 and R +27.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Belton | Hammond | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||