2026 forecast · Oklahoma Commissioner Of Labor
Kevin West is all but certain to win Oklahoma's commissioner of labor race.
Kevin Dawson vs Kevin West, an open seat. The model has West ahead by 21.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +21.9Updated October 22, 2026
Kevin Dawson
Democrat
37.5%
491,619 projected votes
Kevin West
Republican
59.4%
778,819 projected votes
100%West
0%Dawson
West all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, West wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Dawson +33,417 net votes from 1 countiesStatewide R +21.9, a 287,194 vote marginWest +320,611 net votes from 76 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,310,145 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin West R | 778,819 | 59.4% |
| Kevin Dawson D | 491,619 | 37.5% |
| Mike Hall | 39,705 | 3.0% |
| Total | 1,310,145 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
77 counties| County | Dawson | West | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 491,626 | 778,820 | 39,696 | 1,310,142 | R +21.9 |
| Oklahoma County | 137,618 | 104,201 | 7,557 | 249,376 | D +13.4 |
| Tulsa County | 103,001 | 108,983 | 6,625 | 218,609 | R +2.7 |
| Cleveland County | 49,146 | 51,281 | 3,139 | 103,566 | R +2.1 |
| Canadian County | 20,235 | 36,249 | 1,766 | 58,250 | R +27.5 |
| Rogers County | 9,512 | 27,467 | 1,155 | 38,134 | R +47.1 |
| Wagoner County | 8,396 | 21,747 | 942 | 31,085 | R +43.0 |
| Comanche County | 12,423 | 16,171 | 894 | 29,488 | R +12.7 |
| Payne County | 11,165 | 14,167 | 792 | 26,124 | R +11.5 |
| Creek County | 6,280 | 18,244 | 766 | 25,290 | R +47.3 |
| Pottawatomie County | 7,000 | 15,897 | 715 | 23,612 | R +37.7 |
| Grady County | 4,638 | 15,040 | 614 | 20,292 | R +51.3 |
| Muskogee County | 6,986 | 12,615 | 612 | 20,213 | R +27.9 |
| Logan County | 5,663 | 13,259 | 591 | 19,513 | R +38.9 |
| Washington County | 5,118 | 13,618 | 586 | 19,322 | R +44.0 |
| Garfield County | 4,978 | 12,875 | 557 | 18,410 | R +42.9 |
| McClain County | 3,873 | 12,741 | 520 | 17,134 | R +51.8 |
| Osage County | 5,387 | 11,011 | 512 | 16,910 | R +33.3 |
| Carter County | 4,217 | 10,815 | 470 | 15,502 | R +42.6 |
| Cherokee County | 5,899 | 9,036 | 467 | 15,402 | R +20.4 |
| Stephens County | 3,190 | 11,326 | 454 | 14,970 | R +54.3 |
| Delaware County | 3,271 | 11,170 | 452 | 14,893 | R +53.0 |
| Le Flore County | 2,752 | 11,447 | 444 | 14,643 | R +59.4 |
| Pittsburg County | 3,478 | 10,616 | 440 | 14,534 | R +49.1 |
| Bryan County | 3,665 | 10,206 | 433 | 14,304 | R +45.7 |
| Mayes County | 3,196 | 10,518 | 429 | 14,143 | R +51.8 |
| Kay County | 3,917 | 9,602 | 423 | 13,942 | R +40.8 |
| Pontotoc County | 4,163 | 8,117 | 384 | 12,664 | R +31.2 |
| Lincoln County | 2,766 | 9,257 | 375 | 12,398 | R +52.4 |
| Sequoyah County | 2,792 | 9,052 | 370 | 12,214 | R +51.3 |
| Okmulgee County | 3,838 | 7,658 | 359 | 11,855 | R +32.2 |
| McCurtain County | 1,853 | 7,287 | 286 | 9,426 | R +57.6 |
| Garvin County | 1,936 | 6,755 | 271 | 8,962 | R +53.8 |
| Ottawa County | 2,390 | 6,193 | 267 | 8,850 | R +43.0 |
| Custer County | 2,304 | 6,163 | 265 | 8,732 | R +44.2 |
| Caddo County | 2,557 | 5,056 | 238 | 7,851 | R +31.8 |
| McIntosh County | 1,927 | 4,870 | 211 | 7,008 | R +42.0 |
| Seminole County | 1,892 | 4,626 | 203 | 6,721 | R +40.7 |
| Jackson County | 1,608 | 4,905 | 203 | 6,716 | R +49.1 |
| Beckham County | 1,277 | 4,827 | 190 | 6,294 | R +56.4 |
| Woodward County | 1,148 | 4,810 | 186 | 6,144 | R +59.6 |
| Adair County | 1,289 | 4,522 | 181 | 5,992 | R +54.0 |
| Pawnee County | 1,382 | 4,026 | 168 | 5,576 | R +47.4 |
| Kingfisher County | 953 | 4,363 | 166 | 5,482 | R +62.2 |
| Marshall County | 1,084 | 3,890 | 156 | 5,130 | R +54.7 |
| Craig County | 1,228 | 3,568 | 150 | 4,946 | R +47.3 |
| Murray County | 1,149 | 3,475 | 144 | 4,768 | R +48.8 |
| Atoka County | 890 | 3,585 | 140 | 4,615 | R +58.4 |
| Choctaw County | 972 | 3,479 | 139 | 4,590 | R +54.6 |
| Texas County | 887 | 3,339 | 132 | 4,358 | R +56.3 |
| Noble County | 1,058 | 2,912 | 124 | 4,094 | R +45.3 |
| Hughes County | 925 | 2,936 | 121 | 3,982 | R +50.5 |
| Haskell County | 706 | 3,102 | 119 | 3,927 | R +61.0 |
| Washita County | 672 | 3,109 | 117 | 3,898 | R +62.5 |
| Pushmataha County | 666 | 2,998 | 115 | 3,779 | R +61.7 |
| Nowata County | 700 | 2,874 | 112 | 3,686 | R +59.0 |
| Johnston County | 765 | 2,543 | 103 | 3,411 | R +52.1 |
| Okfuskee County | 870 | 2,362 | 101 | 3,333 | R +44.8 |
| Latimer County | 761 | 2,462 | 101 | 3,324 | R +51.2 |
| Love County | 660 | 2,487 | 99 | 3,246 | R +56.3 |
| Blaine County | 680 | 2,382 | 95 | 3,157 | R +53.9 |
| Woods County | 701 | 2,325 | 95 | 3,121 | R +52.0 |
| Major County | 399 | 2,435 | 88 | 2,922 | R +69.7 |
| Kiowa County | 695 | 1,921 | 82 | 2,698 | R +45.4 |
| Coal County | 394 | 1,613 | 63 | 2,070 | R +58.9 |
| Tillman County | 494 | 1,510 | 62 | 2,066 | R +49.1 |
| Cotton County | 439 | 1,536 | 62 | 2,037 | R +53.9 |
| Alfalfa County | 336 | 1,515 | 59 | 1,910 | R +61.8 |
| Dewey County | 267 | 1,544 | 57 | 1,868 | R +68.4 |
| Jefferson County | 336 | 1,442 | 56 | 1,834 | R +60.3 |
| Beaver County | 224 | 1,531 | 55 | 1,810 | R +72.2 |
| Grant County | 303 | 1,371 | 52 | 1,726 | R +61.9 |
| Greer County | 372 | 1,132 | 46 | 1,550 | R +49.0 |
| Ellis County | 239 | 1,262 | 47 | 1,548 | R +66.1 |
| Roger Mills County | 220 | 1,167 | 43 | 1,430 | R +66.2 |
| Harper County | 189 | 1,006 | 37 | 1,232 | R +66.4 |
| Cimarron County | 100 | 701 | 25 | 826 | R +72.9 |
| Harmon County | 166 | 517 | 21 | 704 | R +49.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +12.8 and R +31.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +29.5 |
| Blend of every leg | R +22.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +22.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +21.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +12.8 and R +31.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Dawson | West | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||