2026 forecast · New York State Comptroller
Tom DiNapoli is all but certain to win New York's state comptroller race.
Tom DiNapoli vs Joseph Hernandez, with Tom DiNapoli running again. The model has DiNapoli ahead by 22.4 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +22.4Polls D +24.2Updated October 22, 2026
Tom DiNapoli
Democrat
60.4%
4,201,199 projected votes
Joseph Hernandez
Republican
37.9%
2,638,435 projected votes
100%DiNapoli
0%Hernandez
DiNapoli all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, DiNapoli wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
DiNapoli +1,799,995 net votes from 21 countiesStatewide D +22.5, a 1,562,765 vote marginHernandez +237,230 net votes from 41 counties
Projected statewide vote
6,960,852 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Tom DiNapoli D | 4,201,199 | 60.4% |
| Joseph Hernandez R | 2,638,435 | 37.9% |
| Other candidates | 121,216 | 1.7% |
| Total | 6,960,852 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
62 counties| County | DiNapoli | Hernandez | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 4,201,198 | 2,638,433 | 121,221 | 6,960,852 | D +22.5 |
| Kings County | 586,868 | 141,744 | 12,913 | 741,525 | D +60.0 |
| Suffolk County | 302,117 | 315,038 | 10,937 | 628,092 | R +2.1 |
| Queens County | 422,073 | 162,170 | 10,354 | 594,597 | D +43.7 |
| Nassau County | 299,196 | 272,533 | 10,132 | 581,861 | D +4.6 |
| New York County | 505,919 | 65,703 | 10,131 | 581,753 | D +75.7 |
| Erie County | 222,620 | 154,325 | 6,680 | 383,625 | D +17.8 |
| Westchester County | 255,309 | 117,902 | 6,614 | 379,825 | D +36.2 |
| Monroe County | 182,482 | 120,473 | 5,369 | 308,324 | D +20.1 |
| Bronx County | 234,609 | 45,517 | 4,964 | 285,090 | D +66.3 |
| Onondaga County | 114,931 | 72,726 | 3,326 | 190,983 | D +22.1 |
| Richmond County | 69,652 | 93,847 | 2,898 | 166,397 | R +14.5 |
| Orange County | 70,050 | 70,625 | 2,493 | 143,168 | R +0.4 |
| Albany County | 84,763 | 42,332 | 2,252 | 129,347 | D +32.8 |
| Dutchess County | 68,079 | 57,120 | 2,219 | 127,418 | D +8.6 |
| Rockland County | 62,401 | 57,785 | 2,130 | 122,316 | D +3.8 |
| Saratoga County | 57,370 | 51,589 | 1,931 | 110,890 | D +5.2 |
| Niagara County | 38,341 | 45,287 | 1,482 | 85,110 | R +8.2 |
| Oneida County | 33,801 | 49,513 | 1,477 | 84,791 | R +18.5 |
| Ulster County | 51,426 | 30,662 | 1,454 | 83,542 | D +24.9 |
| Broome County | 38,434 | 36,790 | 1,333 | 76,557 | D +2.1 |
| Rensselaer County | 35,117 | 31,151 | 1,175 | 67,443 | D +5.9 |
| Schenectady County | 34,417 | 25,741 | 1,066 | 61,224 | D +14.2 |
| Putnam County | 23,734 | 28,611 | 927 | 53,272 | R +9.2 |
| Ontario County | 24,498 | 24,782 | 874 | 50,154 | R +0.6 |
| Chautauqua County | 19,212 | 28,103 | 839 | 48,154 | R +18.5 |
| Oswego County | 16,864 | 27,447 | 785 | 45,096 | R +23.5 |
| Tompkins County | 31,576 | 8,862 | 716 | 41,154 | D +55.2 |
| St. Lawrence County | 15,926 | 21,725 | 667 | 38,318 | R +15.1 |
| Steuben County | 12,450 | 24,687 | 659 | 37,796 | R +32.4 |
| Jefferson County | 13,633 | 22,838 | 647 | 37,118 | R +24.8 |
| Wayne County | 13,719 | 22,593 | 643 | 36,955 | R +24.0 |
| Chemung County | 12,704 | 18,156 | 547 | 31,407 | R +17.4 |
| Columbia County | 18,159 | 12,035 | 536 | 30,730 | D +19.9 |
| Clinton County | 15,366 | 14,607 | 531 | 30,504 | D +2.5 |
| Warren County | 14,652 | 14,975 | 525 | 30,152 | R +1.1 |
| Cayuga County | 13,321 | 16,252 | 524 | 30,097 | R +9.7 |
| Cattaraugus County | 9,595 | 18,754 | 502 | 28,851 | R +31.8 |
| Sullivan County | 12,628 | 15,592 | 500 | 28,720 | R +10.3 |
| Madison County | 12,640 | 15,376 | 497 | 28,513 | R +9.6 |
| Livingston County | 10,018 | 15,860 | 458 | 26,336 | R +22.2 |
| Otsego County | 11,031 | 13,108 | 428 | 24,567 | R +8.4 |
| Herkimer County | 7,632 | 16,202 | 423 | 24,257 | R +35.3 |
| Washington County | 10,055 | 13,672 | 421 | 24,148 | R +15.0 |
| Genesee County | 7,853 | 15,756 | 419 | 24,028 | R +32.9 |
| Greene County | 9,091 | 11,993 | 374 | 21,458 | R +13.5 |
| Fulton County | 6,705 | 13,421 | 357 | 20,483 | R +32.8 |
| Tioga County | 7,969 | 12,139 | 357 | 20,465 | R +20.4 |
| Delaware County | 7,936 | 11,486 | 345 | 19,767 | R +18.0 |
| Chenango County | 6,504 | 11,727 | 323 | 18,554 | R +28.1 |
| Cortland County | 8,536 | 9,484 | 320 | 18,340 | R +5.2 |
| Montgomery County | 6,120 | 11,288 | 309 | 17,717 | R +29.2 |
| Allegany County | 4,800 | 12,205 | 302 | 17,307 | R +42.8 |
| Franklin County | 7,821 | 8,792 | 295 | 16,908 | R +5.7 |
| Essex County | 8,427 | 7,780 | 287 | 16,494 | D +3.9 |
| Wyoming County | 4,199 | 11,904 | 285 | 16,388 | R +47.0 |
| Orleans County | 4,487 | 10,478 | 265 | 15,230 | R +39.3 |
| Schoharie County | 4,735 | 8,651 | 238 | 13,624 | R +28.7 |
| Seneca County | 5,786 | 6,690 | 221 | 12,697 | R +7.1 |
| Lewis County | 2,730 | 8,219 | 194 | 11,143 | R +49.3 |
| Yates County | 3,796 | 5,116 | 158 | 9,070 | R +14.6 |
| Schuyler County | 3,293 | 4,633 | 141 | 8,067 | R +16.6 |
| Hamilton County | 1,022 | 1,861 | 52 | 2,935 | R +28.6 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +29.6 and D +15.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +16.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +26.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +19.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +22.5 |
| With polls, 21% weight | D +22.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +29.6 and D +15.3.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | DiNapoli | Hernandez | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 1,144 LV | 2026-09-17 | 56 | 33 | D +23.0 |
| Siena College | 811 LV | 2026-08-06 | 55 | 32 | D +23.0 |