2026 forecast · New Mexico Treasurer
Laura Montoya is all but certain to win New Mexico's treasurer race.
Laura Montoya vs Jim Ellison, with Laura Montoya running again. The model has Montoya ahead by 24.4 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +24.4Polls D +10.8Updated October 22, 2026
Laura Montoya
Democrat
61.7%
503,557 projected votes
Jim Ellison
Republican
37.3%
304,070 projected votes
100%Montoya
0%Ellison
Montoya all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Montoya wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Montoya +246,128 net votes from 17 countiesStatewide D +24.5, a 199,488 vote marginEllison +46,640 net votes from 16 counties
Projected statewide vote
815,786 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Laura Montoya D | 503,557 | 61.7% |
| Jim Ellison R | 304,070 | 37.3% |
| Other candidates | 8,157 | 1.0% |
| Total | 815,786 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
33 counties| County | Montoya | Ellison | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 503,555 | 304,067 | 8,166 | 815,788 | D +24.5 |
| Bernalillo County | 192,883 | 81,924 | 2,776 | 277,583 | D +40.0 |
| Santa Fe County | 63,792 | 11,847 | 764 | 76,403 | D +68.0 |
| Doña Ana County | 47,717 | 24,892 | 733 | 73,342 | D +31.1 |
| Sandoval County | 39,532 | 28,190 | 684 | 68,406 | D +16.6 |
| San Juan County | 18,856 | 25,858 | 452 | 45,166 | R +15.5 |
| Valencia County | 14,766 | 13,726 | 288 | 28,780 | D +3.6 |
| McKinley County | 17,185 | 5,499 | 230 | 22,914 | D +51.0 |
| Otero County | 9,268 | 12,104 | 216 | 21,588 | R +13.1 |
| Eddy County | 5,533 | 14,039 | 198 | 19,770 | R +43.0 |
| Chaves County | 6,675 | 12,621 | 196 | 19,492 | R +30.5 |
| Lea County | 4,176 | 13,484 | 179 | 17,839 | R +52.2 |
| Taos County | 12,936 | 2,312 | 154 | 15,402 | D +69.0 |
| Rio Arriba County | 10,545 | 3,796 | 145 | 14,486 | D +46.6 |
| Curry County | 4,578 | 8,590 | 133 | 13,301 | R +30.2 |
| Grant County | 7,931 | 4,660 | 127 | 12,718 | D +25.7 |
| Los Alamos County | 7,738 | 2,955 | 108 | 10,801 | D +44.3 |
| San Miguel County | 8,154 | 2,363 | 107 | 10,624 | D +54.5 |
| Lincoln County | 3,366 | 5,642 | 91 | 9,099 | R +25.0 |
| Cibola County | 5,077 | 3,117 | 83 | 8,277 | D +23.7 |
| Luna County | 3,456 | 3,551 | 71 | 7,078 | R +1.4 |
| Socorro County | 3,777 | 2,615 | 65 | 6,457 | D +18.0 |
| Torrance County | 2,239 | 3,873 | 62 | 6,174 | R +26.5 |
| Roosevelt County | 1,862 | 3,836 | 58 | 5,756 | R +34.3 |
| Colfax County | 2,758 | 2,452 | 53 | 5,263 | D +5.8 |
| Sierra County | 2,417 | 2,753 | 53 | 5,223 | R +6.4 |
| Quay County | 1,174 | 2,116 | 34 | 3,324 | R +28.4 |
| Mora County | 1,711 | 616 | 23 | 2,350 | D +46.6 |
| Catron County | 645 | 1,450 | 21 | 2,116 | R +38.0 |
| Guadalupe County | 1,142 | 579 | 18 | 1,739 | D +32.4 |
| Hidalgo County | 834 | 807 | 16 | 1,657 | D +1.6 |
| Union County | 455 | 1,063 | 16 | 1,534 | R +39.6 |
| De Baca County | 223 | 511 | 8 | 742 | R +38.8 |
| Harding County | 154 | 226 | 4 | 384 | R +18.8 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +32.9 and D +16.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +22.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +23.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +22.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +25.7 |
| With polls, 7% weight | D +24.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +32.9 and D +16.0.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Montoya | Ellison | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. for Albuquerque Journal | 516 LV | 2026-08-28 | 46 | 37 | D +9.0 |