2026 forecast · North Dakota Public Service Commission, Two-Year Unexpired Term
Jill Kringstad is all but certain to win North Dakota's public service commission, two-year unexpired term race.
Scot Kelsh vs Jill Kringstad, with Jill Kringstad running again. The model has Kringstad ahead by 22.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +22.8Updated October 22, 2026
Scot Kelsh
Democrat
37.4%
100,977 projected votes
Jill Kringstad
Republican
60.2%
162,656 projected votes
100%Kringstad
0%Kelsh
Kringstad all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Kringstad wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kelsh +5,745 net votes from 3 countiesStatewide R +22.8, a 61,674 vote marginKringstad +67,419 net votes from 50 counties
Projected statewide vote
270,170 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jill Kringstad R | 162,656 | 60.2% |
| Scot Kelsh D | 100,977 | 37.4% |
| Other candidates | 6,537 | 2.4% |
| Total | 270,170 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
53 counties| County | Kelsh | Kringstad | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 100,981 | 162,655 | 6,534 | 270,170 | R +22.8 |
| Cass County | 34,918 | 31,169 | 1,638 | 67,725 | D +5.5 |
| Burleigh County | 11,692 | 22,223 | 841 | 34,756 | R +30.3 |
| Grand Forks County | 12,118 | 13,123 | 625 | 25,866 | R +3.9 |
| Ward County | 7,423 | 15,567 | 571 | 23,561 | R +34.6 |
| Williams County | 2,475 | 9,654 | 300 | 12,429 | R +57.8 |
| Morton County | 3,315 | 8,125 | 284 | 11,724 | R +41.0 |
| Stark County | 2,303 | 8,280 | 262 | 10,845 | R +55.1 |
| Stutsman County | 2,582 | 4,978 | 188 | 7,748 | R +30.9 |
| Richland County | 2,148 | 3,556 | 141 | 5,845 | R +24.1 |
| McKenzie County | 863 | 3,472 | 107 | 4,442 | R +58.7 |
| Ramsey County | 1,414 | 2,483 | 97 | 3,994 | R +26.8 |
| Barnes County | 1,490 | 2,307 | 94 | 3,891 | R +21.0 |
| Rolette County | 2,499 | 1,050 | 87 | 3,636 | D +39.8 |
| Walsh County | 1,165 | 2,331 | 86 | 3,582 | R +32.5 |
| McLean County | 913 | 2,492 | 84 | 3,489 | R +45.3 |
| Mountrail County | 1,051 | 1,912 | 73 | 3,036 | R +28.4 |
| Mercer County | 564 | 2,241 | 70 | 2,875 | R +58.3 |
| Traill County | 1,112 | 1,589 | 66 | 2,767 | R +17.2 |
| Pembina County | 679 | 1,652 | 58 | 2,389 | R +40.7 |
| Bottineau County | 606 | 1,574 | 55 | 2,235 | R +43.3 |
| Ransom County | 848 | 1,096 | 48 | 1,992 | R +12.5 |
| McHenry County | 410 | 1,323 | 43 | 1,776 | R +51.4 |
| Benson County | 822 | 873 | 42 | 1,737 | R +2.9 |
| Dickey County | 498 | 1,175 | 41 | 1,714 | R +39.5 |
| LaMoure County | 395 | 999 | 34 | 1,428 | R +42.3 |
| Pierce County | 397 | 968 | 34 | 1,399 | R +40.8 |
| Sargent County | 548 | 782 | 33 | 1,363 | R +17.1 |
| Dunn County | 263 | 1,049 | 32 | 1,344 | R +58.5 |
| Wells County | 310 | 998 | 33 | 1,341 | R +51.3 |
| Cavalier County | 389 | 856 | 31 | 1,276 | R +36.6 |
| Foster County | 303 | 851 | 28 | 1,182 | R +46.4 |
| Emmons County | 166 | 974 | 28 | 1,168 | R +69.1 |
| Sioux County | 815 | 268 | 27 | 1,110 | D +49.3 |
| Nelson County | 430 | 620 | 26 | 1,076 | R +17.7 |
| Bowman County | 169 | 791 | 24 | 984 | R +63.3 |
| McIntosh County | 195 | 698 | 22 | 915 | R +55.0 |
| Hettinger County | 171 | 699 | 22 | 892 | R +59.1 |
| Kidder County | 184 | 630 | 20 | 834 | R +53.5 |
| Eddy County | 273 | 528 | 20 | 821 | R +31.1 |
| Renville County | 161 | 636 | 20 | 817 | R +58.1 |
| Griggs County | 238 | 545 | 19 | 802 | R +38.3 |
| Grant County | 159 | 613 | 20 | 792 | R +57.3 |
| Divide County | 213 | 555 | 19 | 787 | R +43.5 |
| Adams County | 173 | 556 | 18 | 747 | R +51.3 |
| Burke County | 116 | 574 | 18 | 708 | R +64.7 |
| Towner County | 230 | 456 | 17 | 703 | R +32.2 |
| Logan County | 100 | 532 | 16 | 648 | R +66.8 |
| Steele County | 276 | 344 | 15 | 635 | R +10.8 |
| Oliver County | 115 | 483 | 15 | 613 | R +59.9 |
| Golden Valley County | 96 | 467 | 14 | 577 | R +64.4 |
| Sheridan County | 87 | 389 | 12 | 488 | R +61.9 |
| Billings County | 68 | 300 | 8 | 376 | R +61.7 |
| Slope County | 33 | 249 | 8 | 290 | R +74.5 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +13.7 and R +32.0. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket | R +18.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +26.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +20.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +23.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +22.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +13.7 and R +32.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kelsh | Kringstad | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||