2026 forecast · North Carolina Associate Justice Of The Supreme Court, Seat 1
Anita Earls is all but certain to win North Carolina's associate justice of the supreme court, seat 1 race.
Anita Earls vs Sarah Stevens, with Anita Earls running again. The model has Earls ahead by 13.7 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +13.7Polls D +8.4Updated October 22, 2026
Anita Earls
Democrat
56.1%
2,483,019 projected votes
Sarah Stevens
Republican
42.4%
1,875,591 projected votes
100%Earls
0%Stevens
Earls all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Earls wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Earls +1,054,806 net votes from 37 countiesStatewide D +13.7, a 607,430 vote marginStevens +447,376 net votes from 63 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,424,985 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Anita Earls D | 2,483,019 | 56.1% |
| Sarah Stevens R | 1,875,591 | 42.4% |
| Other candidates | 66,374 | 1.5% |
| Total | 4,424,985 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
100 counties| County | Earls | Stevens | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,483,020 | 1,875,590 | 66,375 | 4,424,985 | D +13.7 |
| Wake County | 386,356 | 129,454 | 7,855 | 523,665 | D +49.1 |
| Mecklenburg County | 344,623 | 93,667 | 6,675 | 444,965 | D +56.4 |
| Guilford County | 157,356 | 62,734 | 3,351 | 223,441 | D +42.4 |
| Forsyth County | 104,141 | 52,686 | 2,389 | 159,216 | D +32.3 |
| Durham County | 135,833 | 14,218 | 2,285 | 152,336 | D +79.8 |
| Buncombe County | 94,993 | 36,595 | 2,004 | 133,592 | D +43.7 |
| New Hanover County | 61,244 | 46,465 | 1,641 | 109,350 | D +13.5 |
| Cumberland County | 72,635 | 34,429 | 1,631 | 108,695 | D +35.1 |
| Union County | 44,611 | 57,007 | 1,548 | 103,166 | R +12.0 |
| Johnston County | 37,834 | 51,719 | 1,364 | 90,917 | R +15.3 |
| Cabarrus County | 47,510 | 40,911 | 1,346 | 89,767 | D +7.3 |
| Gaston County | 34,728 | 52,561 | 1,329 | 88,618 | R +20.1 |
| Brunswick County | 33,476 | 47,952 | 1,240 | 82,668 | R +17.5 |
| Iredell County | 30,657 | 49,706 | 1,223 | 81,586 | R +23.4 |
| Orange County | 62,785 | 11,124 | 1,126 | 75,035 | D +68.8 |
| Alamance County | 35,242 | 33,523 | 1,047 | 69,812 | D +2.5 |
| Davidson County | 20,644 | 47,837 | 1,043 | 69,524 | R +39.1 |
| Pitt County | 41,121 | 25,267 | 1,011 | 67,399 | D +23.5 |
| Catawba County | 22,951 | 41,046 | 974 | 64,971 | R +27.9 |
| Onslow County | 22,782 | 36,774 | 907 | 60,463 | R +23.1 |
| Rowan County | 19,347 | 36,659 | 853 | 56,859 | R +30.4 |
| Randolph County | 13,051 | 42,872 | 852 | 56,775 | R +52.5 |
| Henderson County | 27,828 | 27,716 | 846 | 56,390 | D +0.2 |
| Moore County | 20,013 | 27,655 | 725 | 48,393 | R +15.8 |
| Harnett County | 19,711 | 25,970 | 695 | 46,376 | R +13.5 |
| Craven County | 19,044 | 23,517 | 648 | 43,209 | R +10.3 |
| Wayne County | 20,856 | 20,882 | 635 | 42,373 | R +0.1 |
| Chatham County | 27,147 | 14,431 | 633 | 42,211 | D +30.1 |
| Lincoln County | 12,444 | 28,447 | 623 | 41,514 | R +38.5 |
| Nash County | 23,793 | 16,685 | 617 | 41,095 | D +17.3 |
| Cleveland County | 14,525 | 23,765 | 583 | 38,873 | R +23.8 |
| Rockingham County | 14,171 | 22,965 | 566 | 37,702 | R +23.3 |
| Carteret County | 11,787 | 23,676 | 540 | 36,003 | R +33.0 |
| Burke County | 12,236 | 22,239 | 525 | 35,000 | R +28.6 |
| Robeson County | 16,006 | 17,511 | 511 | 34,028 | R +4.4 |
| Caldwell County | 9,806 | 22,210 | 487 | 32,503 | R +38.2 |
| Franklin County | 16,056 | 15,326 | 478 | 31,860 | D +2.3 |
| Wilson County | 18,148 | 12,116 | 461 | 30,725 | D +19.6 |
| Haywood County | 13,062 | 16,269 | 446 | 29,777 | R +10.8 |
| Surry County | 7,819 | 20,360 | 429 | 28,608 | R +43.8 |
| Pender County | 10,196 | 17,405 | 421 | 28,022 | R +25.7 |
| Wilkes County | 6,080 | 21,522 | 420 | 28,022 | R +55.1 |
| Stanly County | 6,379 | 20,597 | 411 | 27,387 | R +51.9 |
| Rutherford County | 8,428 | 18,022 | 403 | 26,853 | R +35.7 |
| Watauga County | 16,402 | 9,881 | 400 | 26,683 | D +24.4 |
| Granville County | 13,692 | 11,182 | 379 | 25,253 | D +9.9 |
| Lee County | 10,963 | 11,444 | 341 | 22,748 | R +2.1 |
| Lenoir County | 11,507 | 9,596 | 322 | 21,425 | D +8.9 |
| Sampson County | 8,333 | 12,536 | 318 | 21,187 | R +19.8 |
| Beaufort County | 8,073 | 12,579 | 314 | 20,966 | R +21.5 |
| Columbus County | 8,354 | 12,272 | 314 | 20,940 | R +18.7 |
| Stokes County | 5,286 | 15,032 | 309 | 20,627 | R +47.3 |
| Davie County | 5,825 | 14,252 | 306 | 20,383 | R +41.3 |
| Dare County | 9,107 | 10,245 | 294 | 19,646 | R +5.8 |
| Edgecombe County | 13,951 | 4,532 | 281 | 18,764 | D +50.2 |
| Halifax County | 13,409 | 4,973 | 280 | 18,662 | D +45.2 |
| McDowell County | 5,401 | 12,479 | 273 | 18,153 | R +39.0 |
| Jackson County | 9,114 | 8,177 | 263 | 17,554 | D +5.3 |
| Duplin County | 7,482 | 9,797 | 263 | 17,542 | R +13.2 |
| Macon County | 5,991 | 11,228 | 262 | 17,481 | R +29.9 |
| Transylvania County | 9,003 | 8,151 | 261 | 17,415 | D +4.9 |
| Person County | 7,676 | 9,251 | 258 | 17,185 | R +9.2 |
| Hoke County | 10,981 | 5,632 | 253 | 16,866 | D +31.7 |
| Alexander County | 3,591 | 12,622 | 247 | 16,460 | R +54.9 |
| Pasquotank County | 8,661 | 7,344 | 244 | 16,249 | D +8.1 |
| Yadkin County | 2,971 | 12,566 | 237 | 15,774 | R +60.8 |
| Vance County | 10,653 | 4,604 | 232 | 15,489 | D +39.0 |
| Richmond County | 7,205 | 7,585 | 226 | 15,016 | R +2.5 |
| Cherokee County | 3,093 | 10,544 | 207 | 13,844 | R +53.8 |
| Currituck County | 3,829 | 9,370 | 201 | 13,400 | R +41.4 |
| Bladen County | 6,276 | 6,701 | 197 | 13,174 | R +3.2 |
| Ashe County | 4,006 | 8,787 | 195 | 12,988 | R +36.8 |
| Scotland County | 6,445 | 4,838 | 172 | 11,455 | D +14.0 |
| Madison County | 5,028 | 5,775 | 165 | 10,968 | R +6.8 |
| Polk County | 4,514 | 5,804 | 157 | 10,475 | R +12.3 |
| Montgomery County | 3,704 | 6,222 | 152 | 10,078 | R +25.0 |
| Martin County | 5,420 | 4,021 | 144 | 9,585 | D +14.6 |
| Yancey County | 3,716 | 5,487 | 140 | 9,343 | R +18.9 |
| Caswell County | 4,372 | 4,801 | 140 | 9,313 | R +4.6 |
| Anson County | 5,256 | 2,996 | 126 | 8,378 | D +27.0 |
| Warren County | 5,928 | 2,097 | 122 | 8,147 | D +47.0 |
| Hertford County | 5,879 | 1,740 | 116 | 7,735 | D +53.5 |
| Avery County | 2,049 | 5,531 | 115 | 7,695 | R +45.3 |
| Northampton County | 5,454 | 1,971 | 113 | 7,538 | D +46.2 |
| Bertie County | 5,298 | 1,949 | 110 | 7,357 | D +45.5 |
| Mitchell County | 1,701 | 5,345 | 108 | 7,154 | R +50.9 |
| Greene County | 3,549 | 3,216 | 103 | 6,868 | D +4.8 |
| Pamlico County | 2,591 | 3,856 | 98 | 6,545 | R +19.3 |
| Chowan County | 2,924 | 3,094 | 91 | 6,109 | R +2.8 |
| Clay County | 1,565 | 4,450 | 91 | 6,106 | R +47.2 |
| Perquimans County | 2,070 | 3,908 | 91 | 6,069 | R +30.3 |
| Swain County | 2,572 | 2,825 | 82 | 5,479 | R +4.6 |
| Alleghany County | 1,403 | 3,877 | 80 | 5,360 | R +46.1 |
| Camden County | 1,419 | 3,303 | 72 | 4,794 | R +39.3 |
| Washington County | 3,081 | 1,508 | 70 | 4,659 | D +33.8 |
| Gates County | 2,274 | 2,303 | 70 | 4,647 | R +0.6 |
| Jones County | 1,926 | 2,301 | 65 | 4,292 | R +8.7 |
| Graham County | 896 | 2,884 | 57 | 3,837 | R +51.8 |
| Hyde County | 1,004 | 937 | 30 | 1,971 | D +3.4 |
| Tyrrell County | 692 | 697 | 21 | 1,410 | R +0.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +20.1 and D +7.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate | D +12.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +16.4 |
| With polls, 31% weight | D +13.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 55%, Approval fundamentals 27%, Gallup, relaxed 18%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +20.1 and D +7.3.
Polls of the race
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Earls | Stevens | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling (R) | 608 LV | 2026-09-15 | 47 | 36 | D +11.0 |
| YouGov | 660 LV | 2026-08-12 | 47 | 44 | D +3.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-10 | 43 | 40 | D +3.0 |
| Change Research (D) | 967 LV | 2026-08-01 | 45 | 39 | D +6.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 759 LV | 2026-07-11 | 44 | 42 | D +2.0 |
| YouGov | 906 LV | 2026-06-10 | 40 | 35 | D +5.0 |