2026 forecast · Minnesota Auditor
Zack Filipovich is very likely to win Minnesota's auditor race.
Zack Filipovich vs Scott Jensen, an open seat. The model has Filipovich ahead by 8.3 points, with a 94 percent chance of winning.
Likely DModel D +8.3Polls R +0.3Updated October 22, 2026
Zack Filipovich
Democrat
49.8%
1,392,822 projected votes
Scott Jensen
Republican
41.6%
1,162,002 projected votes
94%Filipovich
6%Jensen
Filipovich very likelyEach square is one simulated election night, Filipovich wins about 94 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Filipovich +496,272 net votes from 12 countiesStatewide D +8.3, a 230,821 vote marginJensen +265,451 net votes from 75 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,794,235 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Filipovich D | 1,392,822 | 49.8% |
| Scott Jensen R | 1,162,002 | 41.6% |
| Jay Reeves | 239,410 | 8.6% |
| Total | 2,794,235 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
87 counties| County | Filipovich | Jensen | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,392,823 | 1,162,002 | 239,412 | 2,794,237 | D +8.3 |
| Hennepin County | 437,779 | 148,638 | 54,952 | 641,369 | D +45.1 |
| Ramsey County | 173,907 | 54,075 | 21,364 | 249,346 | D +48.1 |
| Dakota County | 117,971 | 85,519 | 19,069 | 222,559 | D +14.6 |
| Anoka County | 78,985 | 81,955 | 15,080 | 176,020 | R +1.7 |
| Washington County | 71,698 | 59,417 | 12,287 | 143,402 | D +8.6 |
| St. Louis County | 59,347 | 35,170 | 8,857 | 103,374 | D +23.4 |
| Olmsted County | 41,562 | 29,877 | 6,695 | 78,134 | D +15.0 |
| Scott County | 31,671 | 37,252 | 6,459 | 75,382 | R +7.4 |
| Stearns County | 24,030 | 43,459 | 6,325 | 73,814 | R +26.3 |
| Wright County | 22,394 | 43,269 | 6,153 | 71,816 | R +29.1 |
| Carver County | 24,419 | 28,241 | 4,934 | 57,594 | R +6.6 |
| Sherburne County | 13,861 | 29,227 | 4,038 | 47,126 | R +32.6 |
| Crow Wing County | 11,142 | 21,549 | 3,063 | 35,754 | R +29.1 |
| Rice County | 14,144 | 14,644 | 2,698 | 31,486 | R +1.6 |
| Blue Earth County | 14,651 | 13,959 | 2,681 | 31,291 | D +2.2 |
| Otter Tail County | 9,710 | 18,668 | 2,658 | 31,036 | R +28.9 |
| Chisago County | 9,457 | 16,891 | 2,469 | 28,817 | R +25.8 |
| Clay County | 13,776 | 11,256 | 2,345 | 27,377 | D +9.2 |
| Goodhue County | 9,960 | 12,669 | 2,120 | 24,749 | R +10.9 |
| Winona County | 10,613 | 11,027 | 2,028 | 23,668 | R +1.8 |
| Itasca County | 9,201 | 11,953 | 1,982 | 23,136 | R +11.9 |
| Douglas County | 5,923 | 13,563 | 1,826 | 21,312 | R +35.9 |
| Beltrami County | 9,464 | 9,664 | 1,792 | 20,920 | R +1.0 |
| Isanti County | 5,912 | 13,153 | 1,786 | 20,851 | R +34.7 |
| Kandiyohi County | 6,567 | 11,732 | 1,715 | 20,014 | R +25.8 |
| Benton County | 5,363 | 11,738 | 1,602 | 18,703 | R +34.1 |
| Steele County | 6,237 | 10,101 | 1,532 | 17,870 | R +21.6 |
| McLeod County | 4,631 | 11,636 | 1,525 | 17,792 | R +39.4 |
| Carlton County | 8,696 | 7,463 | 1,514 | 17,673 | D +7.0 |
| Morrison County | 3,289 | 12,178 | 1,449 | 16,916 | R +52.5 |
| Nicollet County | 7,773 | 7,657 | 1,446 | 16,876 | D +0.7 |
| Becker County | 5,159 | 9,955 | 1,416 | 16,530 | R +29.0 |
| Cass County | 5,098 | 9,989 | 1,415 | 16,502 | R +29.6 |
| Mower County | 7,092 | 7,562 | 1,374 | 16,028 | R +2.9 |
| Le Sueur County | 4,554 | 8,727 | 1,244 | 14,525 | R +28.7 |
| Freeborn County | 5,509 | 7,438 | 1,213 | 14,160 | R +13.6 |
| Pine County | 3,872 | 8,883 | 1,195 | 13,950 | R +35.9 |
| Polk County | 4,193 | 7,494 | 1,095 | 12,782 | R +25.8 |
| Brown County | 3,561 | 7,940 | 1,078 | 12,579 | R +34.8 |
| Mille Lacs County | 3,362 | 7,969 | 1,063 | 12,394 | R +37.2 |
| Todd County | 2,407 | 8,212 | 995 | 11,614 | R +50.0 |
| Meeker County | 2,938 | 7,660 | 994 | 11,592 | R +40.7 |
| Hubbard County | 3,774 | 6,807 | 992 | 11,573 | R +26.2 |
| Wabasha County | 3,882 | 6,598 | 982 | 11,462 | R +23.7 |
| Lyon County | 3,461 | 6,646 | 947 | 11,054 | R +28.8 |
| Fillmore County | 3,875 | 5,576 | 887 | 10,338 | R +16.5 |
| Dodge County | 3,432 | 5,970 | 882 | 10,284 | R +24.7 |
| Houston County | 3,932 | 4,818 | 820 | 9,570 | R +9.3 |
| Martin County | 2,463 | 5,892 | 783 | 9,138 | R +37.5 |
| Aitkin County | 2,889 | 5,318 | 770 | 8,977 | R +27.1 |
| Waseca County | 2,812 | 5,346 | 765 | 8,923 | R +28.4 |
| Kanabec County | 2,208 | 5,010 | 676 | 7,894 | R +35.5 |
| Sibley County | 1,772 | 4,801 | 615 | 7,188 | R +42.1 |
| Roseau County | 1,729 | 4,746 | 607 | 7,082 | R +42.6 |
| Redwood County | 1,694 | 4,754 | 604 | 7,052 | R +43.4 |
| Nobles County | 2,063 | 4,323 | 598 | 6,984 | R +32.4 |
| Renville County | 1,841 | 4,350 | 580 | 6,771 | R +37.1 |
| Wadena County | 1,494 | 4,559 | 568 | 6,621 | R +46.3 |
| Faribault County | 1,937 | 4,101 | 566 | 6,604 | R +32.8 |
| Pennington County | 2,072 | 3,512 | 524 | 6,108 | R +23.6 |
| Pope County | 1,971 | 3,583 | 520 | 6,074 | R +26.6 |
| Lake County | 3,148 | 2,366 | 517 | 6,031 | D +13.0 |
| Koochiching County | 2,202 | 3,080 | 495 | 5,777 | R +15.2 |
| Chippewa County | 1,729 | 3,175 | 460 | 5,364 | R +27.0 |
| Cottonwood County | 1,371 | 3,261 | 434 | 5,066 | R +37.3 |
| Jackson County | 1,325 | 3,128 | 417 | 4,870 | R +37.0 |
| Yellow Medicine County | 1,293 | 2,931 | 396 | 4,620 | R +35.5 |
| Rock County | 1,241 | 2,906 | 389 | 4,536 | R +36.7 |
| Stevens County | 1,481 | 2,565 | 378 | 4,424 | R +24.5 |
| Swift County | 1,341 | 2,622 | 371 | 4,334 | R +29.6 |
| Marshall County | 1,029 | 2,905 | 368 | 4,302 | R +43.6 |
| Watonwan County | 1,439 | 2,422 | 361 | 4,222 | R +23.3 |
| Murray County | 1,085 | 2,683 | 354 | 4,122 | R +38.8 |
| Pipestone County | 962 | 2,806 | 353 | 4,121 | R +44.7 |
| Clearwater County | 959 | 2,664 | 339 | 3,962 | R +43.0 |
| Lac qui Parle County | 1,125 | 1,967 | 290 | 3,382 | R +24.9 |
| Cook County | 2,218 | 857 | 289 | 3,364 | D +40.5 |
| Grant County | 1,031 | 1,783 | 264 | 3,078 | R +24.5 |
| Wilkin County | 833 | 1,760 | 243 | 2,836 | R +32.7 |
| Norman County | 1,063 | 1,485 | 238 | 2,786 | R +15.2 |
| Lincoln County | 755 | 1,708 | 231 | 2,694 | R +35.4 |
| Big Stone County | 837 | 1,465 | 216 | 2,518 | R +25.0 |
| Kittson County | 775 | 1,141 | 180 | 2,096 | R +17.5 |
| Lake of the Woods County | 514 | 1,293 | 169 | 1,976 | R +39.5 |
| Mahnomen County | 833 | 890 | 161 | 1,884 | R +3.0 |
| Red Lake County | 541 | 1,067 | 151 | 1,759 | R +29.9 |
| Traverse County | 514 | 933 | 136 | 1,583 | R +26.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +15.2 and D +1.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +12.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +14.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +15.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +15.0 |
| With polls, 39% weight | D +8.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.2 and D +1.3.
Polls of the race
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Filipovich | Jensen | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 718 LV | 2026-10-12 | 41 | 40 | D +1.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 654 LV | 2026-09-14 | 36 | 43 | R +7.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 661 LV | 2026-08-17 | 39 | 39 | R +0.0 |