2026 forecast · Maryland Comptroller
Brooke Lierman is all but certain to win Maryland's comptroller race.
Brooke Lierman vs Sonya Dunn, with Brooke Lierman running again. The model has Lierman ahead by 42.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +42.8Updated October 22, 2026
Brooke Lierman
Democrat
70.8%
1,774,172 projected votes
Sonya Dunn
Republican
28.0%
702,093 projected votes
100%Lierman
0%Dunn
Lierman all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Lierman wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Lierman +1,167,106 net votes from 10 countiesStatewide D +42.8, a 1,072,080 vote marginDunn +95,026 net votes from 14 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,504,709 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Brooke Lierman D | 1,774,172 | 70.8% |
| Sonya Dunn R | 702,093 | 28.0% |
| Other candidates | 28,442 | 1.1% |
| Total | 2,504,709 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
24 counties| County | Lierman | Dunn | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,774,175 | 702,095 | 28,439 | 2,504,709 | D +42.8 |
| Montgomery County | 367,613 | 59,662 | 4,908 | 432,183 | D +71.3 |
| Prince George's County | 319,754 | 17,285 | 3,871 | 340,910 | D +88.7 |
| Baltimore County | 245,055 | 89,256 | 3,840 | 338,151 | D +46.1 |
| Anne Arundel County | 162,065 | 88,862 | 2,882 | 253,809 | D +28.8 |
| Baltimore city | 190,070 | 11,370 | 2,314 | 203,754 | D +87.7 |
| Howard County | 119,579 | 31,603 | 1,736 | 152,918 | D +57.5 |
| Frederick County | 70,194 | 53,018 | 1,415 | 124,627 | D +13.8 |
| Harford County | 54,115 | 63,560 | 1,351 | 119,026 | R +7.9 |
| Carroll County | 32,971 | 46,937 | 918 | 80,826 | R +17.3 |
| Charles County | 56,351 | 15,596 | 826 | 72,773 | D +56.0 |
| Washington County | 23,259 | 35,902 | 680 | 59,841 | R +21.1 |
| St. Mary's County | 19,928 | 25,806 | 525 | 46,259 | R +12.7 |
| Calvert County | 20,386 | 22,477 | 492 | 43,355 | R +4.8 |
| Cecil County | 14,418 | 26,285 | 467 | 41,170 | R +28.8 |
| Wicomico County | 18,328 | 19,701 | 437 | 38,466 | R +3.6 |
| Allegany County | 8,663 | 18,023 | 306 | 26,992 | R +34.7 |
| Worcester County | 9,961 | 16,447 | 303 | 26,711 | R +24.3 |
| Queen Anne's County | 9,800 | 15,304 | 289 | 25,393 | R +21.7 |
| Talbot County | 10,543 | 8,379 | 217 | 19,139 | D +11.3 |
| Dorchester County | 5,521 | 8,168 | 157 | 13,846 | R +19.1 |
| Garrett County | 2,948 | 10,065 | 149 | 13,162 | R +54.1 |
| Caroline County | 4,063 | 8,828 | 148 | 13,039 | R +36.5 |
| Kent County | 5,108 | 4,195 | 107 | 9,410 | D +9.7 |
| Somerset County | 3,482 | 5,366 | 101 | 8,949 | R +21.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +50.1 and D +35.5. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +36.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +40.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +41.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +43.3 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +42.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +50.1 and D +35.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Lierman | Dunn | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||