2026 forecast · Massachusetts Secretary Of State
William F. Galvin is all but certain to win Massachusetts's secretary of state race.
William F. Galvin vs Anne Brensley, with William F. Galvin running again. The model has Galvin ahead by 38.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +38.6Polls D +36.7Updated October 22, 2026
William F. Galvin
Democrat
67.6%
1,931,463 projected votes
Anne Brensley
Republican
29.0%
827,647 projected votes
100%Galvin
0%Brensley
Galvin all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Galvin wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Galvin +1,103,816 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide D +38.6, a 1,103,816 vote marginBrensley +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected statewide vote
2,858,014 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| William F. Galvin D | 1,931,463 | 67.6% |
| Anne Brensley R | 827,647 | 29.0% |
| Other candidates | 98,903 | 3.5% |
| Total | 2,858,014 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
14 counties| County | Galvin | Brensley | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 1,931,463 | 827,647 | 98,904 | 2,858,014 | D +38.6 |
| Middlesex County | 507,056 | 150,695 | 23,577 | 681,328 | D +52.3 |
| Worcester County | 199,995 | 126,947 | 11,720 | 338,662 | D +21.6 |
| Essex County | 210,820 | 103,998 | 11,285 | 326,103 | D +32.8 |
| Norfolk County | 218,342 | 89,459 | 11,033 | 318,834 | D +40.4 |
| Suffolk County | 217,779 | 34,905 | 9,058 | 261,742 | D +69.9 |
| Plymouth County | 140,778 | 91,378 | 8,322 | 240,478 | D +20.5 |
| Bristol County | 124,230 | 86,537 | 7,556 | 218,323 | D +17.3 |
| Hampden County | 97,725 | 64,040 | 5,799 | 167,564 | D +20.1 |
| Barnstable County | 79,432 | 40,731 | 4,307 | 124,470 | D +31.1 |
| Hampshire County | 54,977 | 15,925 | 2,541 | 73,443 | D +53.2 |
| Berkshire County | 42,334 | 12,157 | 1,953 | 56,444 | D +53.5 |
| Franklin County | 25,701 | 7,784 | 1,201 | 34,686 | D +51.7 |
| Dukes County | 8,161 | 1,660 | 352 | 10,173 | D +63.9 |
| Nantucket County | 4,133 | 1,431 | 200 | 5,764 | D +46.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +46.3 and D +30.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +30.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +48.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +37.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +40.7 |
| With polls, 19% weight | D +38.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +46.3 and D +30.9.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Galvin | Brensley | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-10-12 | 59 | 26 | D +33.0 |