2026 forecast · Idaho Secretary Of State
Phil McGrane is all but certain to win Idaho's secretary of state race.
Shawn Keenan vs Phil McGrane, with Phil McGrane running again. The model has McGrane ahead by 28.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +28.8Updated October 22, 2026
Shawn Keenan
Democrat
35.1%
255,612 projected votes
Phil McGrane
Republican
63.9%
465,198 projected votes
100%McGrane
0%Keenan
McGrane all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, McGrane wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Keenan +11,635 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide R +28.8, a 209,585 vote marginMcGrane +221,220 net votes from 40 counties
Projected statewide vote
728,092 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Phil McGrane R | 465,198 | 63.9% |
| Shawn Keenan D | 255,612 | 35.1% |
| Other candidates | 7,280 | 1.0% |
| Total | 728,092 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
44 counties| County | Keenan | McGrane | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 255,616 | 465,201 | 7,275 | 728,092 | R +28.8 |
| Ada County | 110,965 | 106,051 | 2,192 | 219,208 | D +2.2 |
| Canyon County | 23,166 | 54,074 | 780 | 78,020 | R +39.6 |
| Kootenai County | 20,623 | 54,673 | 761 | 76,057 | R +44.8 |
| Bonneville County | 12,357 | 31,917 | 447 | 44,721 | R +43.7 |
| Bannock County | 13,432 | 18,259 | 320 | 32,011 | R +15.1 |
| Twin Falls County | 8,142 | 21,791 | 302 | 30,235 | R +45.1 |
| Bonner County | 6,522 | 17,350 | 241 | 24,113 | R +44.9 |
| Latah County | 8,998 | 8,304 | 175 | 17,477 | D +4.0 |
| Nez Perce County | 5,444 | 10,895 | 165 | 16,504 | R +33.0 |
| Bingham County | 3,174 | 13,011 | 164 | 16,349 | R +60.2 |
| Jefferson County | 1,528 | 10,320 | 119 | 11,967 | R +73.5 |
| Madison County | 2,518 | 9,221 | 119 | 11,858 | R +56.5 |
| Blaine County | 7,996 | 3,016 | 111 | 11,123 | D +44.8 |
| Payette County | 1,816 | 7,577 | 95 | 9,488 | R +60.7 |
| Elmore County | 2,425 | 6,313 | 88 | 8,826 | R +44.0 |
| Gem County | 1,659 | 7,072 | 88 | 8,819 | R +61.4 |
| Idaho County | 1,355 | 6,934 | 84 | 8,373 | R +66.6 |
| Cassia County | 1,051 | 6,547 | 76 | 7,674 | R +71.6 |
| Jerome County | 1,463 | 4,864 | 63 | 6,390 | R +53.2 |
| Minidoka County | 1,109 | 5,215 | 64 | 6,388 | R +64.3 |
| Valley County | 2,655 | 3,263 | 59 | 5,977 | R +10.2 |
| Boundary County | 941 | 4,910 | 59 | 5,910 | R +67.2 |
| Franklin County | 558 | 4,999 | 56 | 5,613 | R +79.1 |
| Fremont County | 866 | 4,501 | 54 | 5,421 | R +67.0 |
| Teton County | 3,193 | 2,146 | 54 | 5,393 | D +19.4 |
| Shoshone County | 1,546 | 3,497 | 51 | 5,094 | R +38.3 |
| Gooding County | 1,068 | 3,854 | 50 | 4,972 | R +56.0 |
| Washington County | 889 | 3,692 | 46 | 4,627 | R +60.6 |
| Benewah County | 867 | 3,216 | 41 | 4,124 | R +57.0 |
| Lemhi County | 917 | 3,127 | 41 | 4,085 | R +54.1 |
| Owyhee County | 763 | 3,254 | 41 | 4,058 | R +61.4 |
| Boise County | 1,113 | 2,843 | 40 | 3,996 | R +43.3 |
| Clearwater County | 785 | 2,903 | 37 | 3,725 | R +56.9 |
| Bear Lake County | 424 | 2,299 | 27 | 2,750 | R +68.2 |
| Caribou County | 386 | 2,299 | 27 | 2,712 | R +70.5 |
| Power County | 644 | 1,790 | 25 | 2,459 | R +46.6 |
| Custer County | 532 | 1,708 | 23 | 2,263 | R +52.0 |
| Adams County | 564 | 1,661 | 22 | 2,247 | R +48.8 |
| Oneida County | 225 | 1,728 | 19 | 1,972 | R +76.2 |
| Lincoln County | 334 | 1,245 | 15 | 1,594 | R +57.2 |
| Lewis County | 267 | 1,274 | 15 | 1,556 | R +64.7 |
| Butte County | 177 | 970 | 12 | 1,159 | R +68.5 |
| Camas County | 123 | 398 | 5 | 526 | R +52.4 |
| Clark County | 36 | 220 | 2 | 258 | R +71.2 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +20.8 and R +36.8. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +28.3 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +25.9 |
| Blend of every leg | R +26.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +29.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +28.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +20.8 and R +36.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Keenan | McGrane | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||