2026 forecast · Georgia Agriculture Commissioner
Katherine Juhan-Arnold is slightly favored to win Georgia's agriculture commissioner race.
Katherine Juhan-Arnold vs Tyler Harper, with Tyler Harper running again. The model has Juhan-Arnold ahead by 2.6 points, with a 68 percent chance of winning.
Lean DModel D +2.6Updated October 22, 2026
Katherine Juhan-Arnold
Democrat
50.8%
2,372,994 projected votes
Tyler Harper
Republican
48.2%
2,250,541 projected votes
68%Juhan-Arnold
32%Harper
Juhan-Arnold favoredEach square is one simulated election night, Juhan-Arnold wins about 68 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Juhan-Arnold +1,039,419 net votes from 30 countiesStatewide D +2.6, a 122,451 vote marginHarper +916,968 net votes from 129 counties
Projected statewide vote
4,670,238 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Katherine Juhan-Arnold D | 2,372,994 | 50.8% |
| Tyler Harper R | 2,250,541 | 48.2% |
| Other candidates | 46,702 | 1.0% |
| Total | 4,670,238 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
159 counties| County | Juhan-Arnold | Harper | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2,372,995 | 2,250,544 | 46,703 | 4,670,242 | D +2.6 |
| Fulton County | 377,690 | 109,710 | 4,924 | 492,324 | D +54.4 |
| Gwinnett County | 226,501 | 132,051 | 3,622 | 362,174 | D +26.1 |
| Cobb County | 213,503 | 137,986 | 3,551 | 355,040 | D +21.3 |
| DeKalb County | 295,570 | 44,485 | 3,435 | 343,490 | D +73.1 |
| Cherokee County | 39,407 | 95,907 | 1,366 | 136,680 | R +41.3 |
| Chatham County | 79,023 | 48,525 | 1,288 | 128,836 | D +23.7 |
| Forsyth County | 36,455 | 79,076 | 1,167 | 116,698 | R +36.5 |
| Henry County | 75,918 | 35,844 | 1,129 | 112,891 | D +35.5 |
| Clayton County | 97,706 | 10,635 | 1,094 | 109,435 | D +79.6 |
| Hall County | 21,262 | 64,071 | 863 | 86,196 | R +49.7 |
| Richmond County | 58,460 | 21,625 | 809 | 80,894 | D +45.5 |
| Paulding County | 29,648 | 48,688 | 791 | 79,127 | R +24.1 |
| Muscogee County | 50,465 | 25,448 | 767 | 76,680 | D +32.6 |
| Columbia County | 26,578 | 47,213 | 746 | 74,537 | R +27.7 |
| Coweta County | 23,562 | 48,810 | 731 | 73,103 | R +34.5 |
| Houston County | 31,381 | 39,157 | 712 | 71,250 | R +10.9 |
| Fayette County | 31,472 | 32,843 | 649 | 64,964 | R +2.1 |
| Bibb County | 41,921 | 22,212 | 647 | 64,780 | D +30.4 |
| Douglas County | 43,365 | 19,050 | 631 | 63,046 | D +38.6 |
| Carroll County | 14,430 | 36,993 | 519 | 51,942 | R +43.4 |
| Clarke County | 36,861 | 14,363 | 517 | 51,741 | D +43.5 |
| Newton County | 30,803 | 19,962 | 513 | 51,278 | D +21.1 |
| Walton County | 12,187 | 36,384 | 490 | 49,061 | R +49.3 |
| Bartow County | 11,305 | 36,377 | 482 | 48,164 | R +52.1 |
| Lowndes County | 18,553 | 24,991 | 440 | 43,984 | R +14.6 |
| Rockdale County | 31,659 | 9,499 | 416 | 41,574 | D +53.3 |
| Floyd County | 10,931 | 27,987 | 392 | 39,310 | R +43.4 |
| Glynn County | 14,213 | 24,274 | 388 | 38,875 | R +25.9 |
| Jackson County | 7,197 | 30,685 | 382 | 38,264 | R +61.4 |
| Barrow County | 9,783 | 25,937 | 362 | 36,082 | R +44.8 |
| Whitfield County | 8,594 | 25,007 | 339 | 33,940 | R +48.4 |
| Dougherty County | 24,612 | 8,089 | 330 | 33,031 | D +50.0 |
| Bulloch County | 10,864 | 19,503 | 307 | 30,674 | R +28.2 |
| Effingham County | 7,182 | 22,597 | 301 | 30,080 | R +51.3 |
| Catoosa County | 6,402 | 22,959 | 297 | 29,658 | R +55.8 |
| Spalding County | 12,043 | 16,848 | 292 | 29,183 | R +16.5 |
| Troup County | 10,491 | 17,224 | 280 | 27,995 | R +24.1 |
| Walker County | 5,305 | 22,014 | 275 | 27,594 | R +60.5 |
| Oconee County | 6,687 | 16,378 | 233 | 23,298 | R +41.6 |
| Gordon County | 3,705 | 19,215 | 232 | 23,152 | R +67.0 |
| Camden County | 6,982 | 15,350 | 226 | 22,558 | R +37.1 |
| Liberty County | 13,789 | 7,483 | 214 | 21,486 | D +29.4 |
| Laurens County | 7,021 | 13,989 | 212 | 21,222 | R +32.8 |
| Bryan County | 6,080 | 14,154 | 204 | 20,438 | R +39.5 |
| Habersham County | 2,749 | 17,147 | 202 | 20,098 | R +71.6 |
| Thomas County | 7,557 | 12,124 | 199 | 19,880 | R +23.0 |
| Harris County | 4,960 | 14,090 | 192 | 19,242 | R +47.4 |
| Baldwin County | 9,150 | 8,754 | 181 | 18,085 | D +2.2 |
| Pickens County | 2,543 | 14,882 | 176 | 17,601 | R +70.1 |
| Polk County | 3,102 | 13,231 | 165 | 16,498 | R +61.4 |
| Gilmer County | 2,504 | 13,387 | 161 | 16,052 | R +67.8 |
| Dawson County | 2,088 | 13,629 | 158 | 15,875 | R +72.7 |
| Lumpkin County | 2,762 | 12,725 | 156 | 15,643 | R +63.7 |
| Union County | 2,338 | 13,080 | 156 | 15,574 | R +69.0 |
| Tift County | 4,777 | 10,613 | 156 | 15,546 | R +37.5 |
| Lee County | 4,202 | 11,135 | 155 | 15,492 | R +44.8 |
| Monroe County | 3,812 | 11,462 | 155 | 15,429 | R +49.6 |
| Colquitt County | 3,649 | 11,470 | 153 | 15,272 | R +51.2 |
| Murray County | 1,918 | 12,611 | 147 | 14,676 | R +72.9 |
| Coffee County | 3,930 | 10,502 | 146 | 14,578 | R +45.1 |
| White County | 2,043 | 12,337 | 145 | 14,525 | R +70.9 |
| Madison County | 2,824 | 11,439 | 145 | 14,408 | R +59.8 |
| Fannin County | 2,114 | 11,822 | 141 | 14,077 | R +69.0 |
| Jones County | 4,414 | 9,354 | 140 | 13,908 | R +35.5 |
| Haralson County | 1,409 | 12,237 | 138 | 13,784 | R +78.5 |
| Ware County | 3,615 | 9,305 | 130 | 13,050 | R +43.6 |
| Hart County | 2,200 | 10,067 | 123 | 12,390 | R +63.5 |
| Peach County | 5,726 | 6,221 | 121 | 12,068 | R +4.1 |
| Wayne County | 2,169 | 9,713 | 120 | 12,002 | R +62.9 |
| Upson County | 3,566 | 8,292 | 120 | 11,978 | R +39.5 |
| Sumter County | 6,123 | 5,277 | 115 | 11,515 | D +7.3 |
| Butts County | 3,116 | 8,258 | 114 | 11,488 | R +44.8 |
| Putnam County | 3,074 | 8,299 | 114 | 11,487 | R +45.5 |
| Greene County | 3,693 | 7,650 | 115 | 11,458 | R +34.5 |
| Stephens County | 1,859 | 9,381 | 113 | 11,353 | R +66.3 |
| Morgan County | 2,802 | 8,367 | 113 | 11,282 | R +49.3 |
| Decatur County | 4,256 | 6,313 | 107 | 10,676 | R +19.3 |
| Franklin County | 1,075 | 9,258 | 105 | 10,438 | R +78.4 |
| Pike County | 1,178 | 9,036 | 104 | 10,318 | R +76.2 |
| Meriwether County | 3,794 | 6,324 | 102 | 10,220 | R +24.8 |
| Burke County | 4,832 | 5,106 | 100 | 10,038 | R +2.7 |
| Toombs County | 2,406 | 7,465 | 101 | 9,972 | R +50.7 |
| Grady County | 3,002 | 6,687 | 98 | 9,787 | R +37.6 |
| McDuffie County | 3,480 | 5,887 | 95 | 9,462 | R +25.4 |
| Chattooga County | 1,636 | 7,678 | 94 | 9,408 | R +64.2 |
| Rabun County | 1,760 | 7,310 | 91 | 9,161 | R +60.6 |
| Lamar County | 2,309 | 6,640 | 90 | 9,039 | R +47.9 |
| Washington County | 4,593 | 4,189 | 88 | 8,870 | D +4.5 |
| Emanuel County | 2,552 | 6,224 | 88 | 8,864 | R +41.4 |
| Banks County | 642 | 8,002 | 87 | 8,731 | R +84.3 |
| Elbert County | 2,295 | 6,147 | 86 | 8,528 | R +45.2 |
| Pierce County | 759 | 7,665 | 85 | 8,509 | R +81.2 |
| Worth County | 2,073 | 6,327 | 85 | 8,485 | R +50.1 |
| Mitchell County | 3,684 | 4,531 | 83 | 8,298 | R +10.2 |
| Tattnall County | 1,914 | 6,244 | 82 | 8,240 | R +52.5 |
| Dodge County | 1,886 | 5,947 | 79 | 7,912 | R +51.3 |
| Towns County | 1,312 | 6,406 | 78 | 7,796 | R +65.3 |
| Oglethorpe County | 2,120 | 5,449 | 76 | 7,645 | R +43.5 |
| Jasper County | 1,535 | 6,028 | 77 | 7,640 | R +58.8 |
| Crisp County | 2,744 | 4,775 | 76 | 7,595 | R +26.7 |
| Appling County | 1,298 | 6,196 | 76 | 7,570 | R +64.7 |
| Brantley County | 545 | 6,737 | 74 | 7,356 | R +84.2 |
| Berrien County | 975 | 6,190 | 73 | 7,238 | R +72.1 |
| Dade County | 1,175 | 5,767 | 70 | 7,012 | R +65.5 |
| Jefferson County | 3,656 | 3,198 | 69 | 6,923 | D +6.6 |
| Brooks County | 2,499 | 4,075 | 66 | 6,640 | R +23.7 |
| Cook County | 1,787 | 4,772 | 67 | 6,626 | R +45.1 |
| McIntosh County | 2,255 | 3,987 | 64 | 6,306 | R +27.5 |
| Screven County | 2,337 | 3,791 | 62 | 6,190 | R +23.5 |
| Ben Hill County | 2,082 | 4,010 | 62 | 6,154 | R +31.3 |
| Long County | 2,171 | 3,713 | 59 | 5,943 | R +25.9 |
| Crawford County | 1,432 | 4,087 | 56 | 5,575 | R +47.6 |
| Bleckley County | 1,119 | 4,358 | 55 | 5,532 | R +58.6 |
| Jeff Davis County | 762 | 4,514 | 54 | 5,330 | R +70.4 |
| Heard County | 720 | 4,479 | 53 | 5,252 | R +71.6 |
| Macon County | 2,947 | 1,628 | 46 | 4,621 | D +28.5 |
| Wilkes County | 1,873 | 2,680 | 46 | 4,599 | R +17.6 |
| Early County | 2,067 | 2,370 | 45 | 4,482 | R +6.8 |
| Wilkinson County | 1,893 | 2,453 | 44 | 4,390 | R +12.8 |
| Charlton County | 893 | 3,429 | 44 | 4,366 | R +58.1 |
| Bacon County | 497 | 3,790 | 43 | 4,330 | R +76.1 |
| Lincoln County | 1,167 | 3,107 | 43 | 4,317 | R +44.9 |
| Candler County | 1,075 | 3,037 | 42 | 4,154 | R +47.3 |
| Telfair County | 1,375 | 2,726 | 41 | 4,142 | R +32.6 |
| Dooly County | 1,960 | 2,090 | 41 | 4,091 | R +3.2 |
| Hancock County | 2,967 | 1,054 | 41 | 4,062 | D +47.1 |
| Terrell County | 2,243 | 1,759 | 40 | 4,042 | D +12.0 |
| Pulaski County | 1,160 | 2,816 | 40 | 4,016 | R +41.3 |
| Twiggs County | 1,818 | 2,074 | 40 | 3,932 | R +6.5 |
| Irwin County | 895 | 2,994 | 39 | 3,928 | R +53.4 |
| Evans County | 1,087 | 2,794 | 39 | 3,920 | R +43.5 |
| Johnson County | 1,011 | 2,757 | 38 | 3,806 | R +45.9 |
| Montgomery County | 846 | 2,793 | 37 | 3,676 | R +53.0 |
| Seminole County | 1,053 | 2,564 | 37 | 3,654 | R +41.4 |
| Taylor County | 1,246 | 2,334 | 36 | 3,616 | R +30.1 |
| Turner County | 1,244 | 2,268 | 36 | 3,548 | R +28.9 |
| Lanier County | 941 | 2,420 | 33 | 3,394 | R +43.6 |
| Jenkins County | 1,153 | 2,092 | 33 | 3,278 | R +28.6 |
| Marion County | 1,172 | 2,038 | 32 | 3,242 | R +26.7 |
| Wilcox County | 790 | 2,414 | 32 | 3,236 | R +50.2 |
| Talbot County | 1,857 | 1,213 | 31 | 3,101 | D +20.7 |
| Treutlen County | 825 | 1,935 | 27 | 2,787 | R +39.8 |
| Randolph County | 1,572 | 1,185 | 27 | 2,784 | D +13.9 |
| Atkinson County | 621 | 2,024 | 27 | 2,672 | R +52.5 |
| Clinch County | 587 | 1,906 | 25 | 2,518 | R +52.4 |
| Miller County | 578 | 1,846 | 24 | 2,448 | R +51.8 |
| Warren County | 1,304 | 1,062 | 24 | 2,390 | D +10.2 |
| Wheeler County | 671 | 1,684 | 24 | 2,379 | R +42.6 |
| Schley County | 374 | 1,710 | 20 | 2,104 | R +63.5 |
| Calhoun County | 1,248 | 805 | 21 | 2,074 | D +21.4 |
| Stewart County | 1,276 | 666 | 20 | 1,962 | D +31.1 |
| Glascock County | 108 | 1,323 | 15 | 1,446 | R +84.0 |
| Chattahoochee County | 680 | 743 | 15 | 1,438 | R +4.4 |
| Baker County | 579 | 757 | 13 | 1,349 | R +13.2 |
| Clay County | 742 | 553 | 13 | 1,308 | D +14.5 |
| Echols County | 116 | 1,113 | 12 | 1,241 | R +80.3 |
| Webster County | 515 | 688 | 11 | 1,214 | R +14.2 |
| Quitman County | 459 | 578 | 11 | 1,048 | R +11.4 |
| Taliaferro County | 506 | 301 | 8 | 815 | D +25.1 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +10.0 and R +4.7. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +4.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +4.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +2.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +10.0 and R +4.7.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Juhan-Arnold | Harper | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||