2026 forecast · Connecticut Attorney General
William Tong is all but certain to win Connecticut's attorney general race.
William Tong vs John Bolton, with William Tong running again. The model has Tong ahead by 22.5 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe DModel D +22.5Polls D +28.4Updated October 22, 2026
William Tong
Democrat
60.5%
868,362 projected votes
John Bolton
Republican
38.0%
544,848 projected votes
100%Tong
0%Bolton
Tong all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Tong wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Tong +327,340 net votes from 6 countiesStatewide D +22.5, a 323,514 vote marginBolton +3,826 net votes from 2 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,435,542 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| William Tong D | 868,362 | 60.5% |
| John Bolton R | 544,848 | 38.0% |
| Other candidates | 22,330 | 1.6% |
| Total | 1,435,542 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
8 counties| County | Tong | Bolton | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 868,363 | 544,849 | 22,330 | 1,435,542 | D +22.5 |
| Hartford County | 256,992 | 133,875 | 6,176 | 397,043 | D +31.0 |
| Fairfield County | 204,098 | 110,957 | 4,978 | 320,033 | D +29.1 |
| New Haven County | 182,617 | 123,733 | 4,840 | 311,190 | D +18.9 |
| New London County | 75,974 | 49,779 | 1,988 | 127,741 | D +20.5 |
| Middlesex County | 50,677 | 33,488 | 1,330 | 85,495 | D +20.1 |
| Tolland County | 42,096 | 33,282 | 1,191 | 76,569 | D +11.5 |
| Litchfield County | 33,208 | 35,474 | 1,085 | 69,767 | R +3.3 |
| Windham County | 22,701 | 24,261 | 742 | 47,704 | R +3.3 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between D +30.7 and D +14.3. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +15.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +22.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +18.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +22.1 |
| With polls, 12% weight | D +22.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +30.7 and D +14.3.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Tong | Bolton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 540 LV | 2026-09-21 | 57 | 30 | D +27.0 |