2026 forecast · Arkansas Secretary Of State
Kim Hammer is all but certain to win Arkansas's secretary of state race.
Kelly Grappe vs Kim Hammer, an open seat. The model has Hammer ahead by 18.4 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +18.4Polls R +4.4Updated October 22, 2026
Kelly Grappe
Democrat
40.0%
393,870 projected votes
Kim Hammer
Republican
58.5%
575,244 projected votes
100%Hammer
0%Grappe
Hammer all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Hammer wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Grappe +74,476 net votes from 10 countiesStatewide R +18.4, a 181,369 vote marginHammer +255,845 net votes from 65 counties
Projected statewide vote
983,873 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Kim Hammer R | 575,244 | 58.5% |
| Kelly Grappe D | 393,870 | 40.0% |
| Michael Pakko | 14,758 | 1.5% |
| Total | 983,873 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
75 counties| County | Grappe | Hammer | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 393,872 | 575,241 | 14,758 | 983,871 | R +18.4 |
| Pulaski County | 92,815 | 39,812 | 2,019 | 134,646 | D +39.4 |
| Benton County | 39,934 | 58,707 | 1,502 | 100,143 | R +18.8 |
| Washington County | 42,881 | 35,356 | 1,191 | 79,428 | D +9.5 |
| Saline County | 16,021 | 29,885 | 698 | 46,604 | R +29.8 |
| Faulkner County | 17,501 | 26,373 | 668 | 44,542 | R +19.9 |
| Sebastian County | 12,982 | 24,012 | 564 | 37,558 | R +29.4 |
| Garland County | 12,888 | 21,910 | 530 | 35,328 | R +25.5 |
| Craighead County | 11,551 | 19,333 | 470 | 31,354 | R +24.8 |
| White County | 6,104 | 18,812 | 380 | 25,296 | R +50.2 |
| Lonoke County | 6,793 | 17,480 | 369 | 24,642 | R +43.4 |
| Pope County | 5,433 | 14,036 | 297 | 19,766 | R +43.5 |
| Crawford County | 4,731 | 14,417 | 291 | 19,439 | R +49.8 |
| Jefferson County | 12,837 | 5,936 | 287 | 19,060 | D +36.2 |
| Baxter County | 3,929 | 12,689 | 253 | 16,871 | R +51.9 |
| Boone County | 2,848 | 10,709 | 207 | 13,764 | R +57.1 |
| Greene County | 3,102 | 9,775 | 197 | 13,074 | R +51.0 |
| Miller County | 3,457 | 9,145 | 192 | 12,794 | R +44.5 |
| Union County | 4,772 | 7,602 | 189 | 12,563 | R +22.5 |
| Crittenden County | 7,153 | 4,779 | 182 | 12,114 | D +19.6 |
| Independence County | 2,759 | 8,657 | 174 | 11,590 | R +50.9 |
| Hot Spring County | 3,037 | 7,347 | 158 | 10,542 | R +40.9 |
| Cleburne County | 2,023 | 8,355 | 158 | 10,536 | R +60.1 |
| Carroll County | 3,575 | 5,798 | 143 | 9,516 | R +23.4 |
| Mississippi County | 3,897 | 5,246 | 139 | 9,282 | R +14.5 |
| Johnson County | 2,155 | 5,264 | 113 | 7,532 | R +41.3 |
| Ouachita County | 3,377 | 3,833 | 110 | 7,320 | R +6.2 |
| Conway County | 2,481 | 4,576 | 107 | 7,164 | R +29.3 |
| Polk County | 1,266 | 5,707 | 105 | 7,078 | R +62.7 |
| Logan County | 1,540 | 5,166 | 103 | 6,809 | R +53.3 |
| Grant County | 1,316 | 5,329 | 102 | 6,747 | R +59.5 |
| Columbia County | 2,486 | 4,126 | 101 | 6,713 | R +24.4 |
| Clark County | 3,059 | 3,531 | 100 | 6,690 | R +7.0 |
| Van Buren County | 1,549 | 4,767 | 96 | 6,412 | R +50.2 |
| Marion County | 1,457 | 4,845 | 96 | 6,398 | R +53.0 |
| Sharp County | 1,361 | 4,799 | 94 | 6,254 | R +55.0 |
| Madison County | 1,435 | 4,599 | 92 | 6,126 | R +51.7 |
| Poinsett County | 1,428 | 4,496 | 90 | 6,014 | R +51.0 |
| Ashley County | 1,703 | 4,010 | 87 | 5,800 | R +39.8 |
| Franklin County | 1,407 | 4,243 | 86 | 5,736 | R +49.5 |
| Randolph County | 1,242 | 4,284 | 84 | 5,610 | R +54.2 |
| Yell County | 1,312 | 4,182 | 84 | 5,578 | R +51.5 |
| Drew County | 2,100 | 3,365 | 83 | 5,548 | R +22.8 |
| St. Francis County | 3,195 | 2,181 | 81 | 5,457 | D +18.6 |
| Cross County | 1,551 | 3,714 | 81 | 5,346 | R +40.5 |
| Hempstead County | 1,776 | 3,334 | 78 | 5,188 | R +30.0 |
| Stone County | 1,168 | 3,909 | 77 | 5,154 | R +53.2 |
| Izard County | 1,056 | 3,826 | 74 | 4,956 | R +55.9 |
| Lawrence County | 1,116 | 3,710 | 74 | 4,900 | R +53.0 |
| Arkansas County | 1,603 | 3,082 | 72 | 4,757 | R +31.1 |
| Phillips County | 3,018 | 1,353 | 66 | 4,437 | D +37.5 |
| Jackson County | 1,343 | 2,942 | 65 | 4,350 | R +36.8 |
| Clay County | 1,029 | 3,183 | 64 | 4,276 | R +50.4 |
| Fulton County | 974 | 3,182 | 64 | 4,220 | R +52.3 |
| Little River County | 1,053 | 2,983 | 62 | 4,098 | R +47.1 |
| Sevier County | 825 | 3,058 | 59 | 3,942 | R +56.6 |
| Perry County | 1,042 | 2,766 | 58 | 3,866 | R +44.6 |
| Howard County | 1,186 | 2,565 | 57 | 3,808 | R +36.2 |
| Pike County | 679 | 3,059 | 56 | 3,794 | R +62.7 |
| Searcy County | 564 | 2,648 | 49 | 3,261 | R +63.9 |
| Chicot County | 2,002 | 1,178 | 48 | 3,228 | D +25.5 |
| Montgomery County | 704 | 2,447 | 48 | 3,199 | R +54.5 |
| Newton County | 698 | 2,396 | 46 | 3,140 | R +54.1 |
| Lincoln County | 962 | 2,114 | 48 | 3,124 | R +36.9 |
| Desha County | 1,807 | 1,257 | 48 | 3,112 | D +17.7 |
| Scott County | 486 | 2,477 | 45 | 3,008 | R +66.2 |
| Cleveland County | 557 | 2,302 | 43 | 2,902 | R +60.1 |
| Prairie County | 574 | 2,174 | 42 | 2,790 | R +57.3 |
| Bradley County | 1,015 | 1,714 | 42 | 2,771 | R +25.2 |
| Nevada County | 915 | 1,573 | 38 | 2,526 | R +26.0 |
| Lee County | 1,395 | 822 | 33 | 2,250 | D +25.5 |
| Monroe County | 1,088 | 1,041 | 31 | 2,160 | D +2.2 |
| Dallas County | 807 | 1,233 | 31 | 2,071 | R +20.6 |
| Woodruff County | 848 | 1,175 | 31 | 2,054 | R +15.9 |
| Lafayette County | 758 | 1,228 | 31 | 2,017 | R +23.3 |
| Calhoun County | 381 | 1,322 | 25 | 1,728 | R +54.4 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +9.9 and R +26.9. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +14.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +20.3 |
| Blend of every leg | R +16.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +19.8 |
| With polls, 7% weight | R +18.4 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +9.9 and R +26.9.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Grappe | Hammer | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 2026-08-12 | 40 | 43 | R +3.0 |