2026 forecast · Alabama Associate Justice Of The Supreme Court, Place 8
Greg Shaw is all but certain to win Alabama's associate justice of the supreme court, place 8 race.
AshLeigh Dunham vs Greg Shaw, with Greg Shaw running again. The model has Shaw ahead by 30.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
Safe RModel R +30.6Updated October 22, 2026
AshLeigh Dunham
Democrat
34.2%
587,185 projected votes
Greg Shaw
Republican
64.8%
1,111,704 projected votes
100%Shaw
0%Dunham
Shaw all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Shaw wins about 100 of 100
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Dunham +89,201 net votes from 11 countiesStatewide R +30.6, a 524,512 vote marginShaw +613,713 net votes from 56 counties
Projected statewide vote
1,716,050 votes| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Shaw R | 1,111,704 | 64.8% |
| AshLeigh Dunham D | 587,185 | 34.2% |
| Other candidates | 17,160 | 1.0% |
| Total | 1,716,050 | 100% |
Expected votes at the projected turnout for this office, which runs a little below the top of the ticket because some voters skip down ballot races.
Projected vote by county
67 counties| County | Dunham | Shaw | Other | Total | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 587,189 | 1,111,701 | 17,159 | 1,716,049 | R +30.6 |
| Jefferson County | 139,005 | 94,144 | 2,355 | 235,504 | D +19.1 |
| Madison County | 65,074 | 78,632 | 1,452 | 145,158 | R +9.3 |
| Mobile County | 54,306 | 77,659 | 1,333 | 133,298 | R +17.5 |
| Baldwin County | 15,739 | 71,479 | 881 | 88,099 | R +63.3 |
| Shelby County | 24,025 | 58,094 | 829 | 82,948 | R +41.1 |
| Montgomery County | 48,336 | 24,578 | 736 | 73,650 | D +32.3 |
| Tuscaloosa County | 26,990 | 39,630 | 672 | 67,292 | R +18.8 |
| Lee County | 18,292 | 35,003 | 538 | 53,833 | R +31.0 |
| Morgan County | 8,020 | 30,818 | 393 | 39,231 | R +58.1 |
| Limestone County | 9,337 | 28,247 | 380 | 37,964 | R +49.8 |
| Calhoun County | 9,602 | 26,601 | 365 | 36,568 | R +46.5 |
| Houston County | 7,802 | 26,077 | 343 | 34,222 | R +53.4 |
| Etowah County | 6,844 | 25,748 | 330 | 32,922 | R +57.4 |
| St. Clair County | 4,935 | 27,305 | 326 | 32,566 | R +68.7 |
| Lauderdale County | 7,008 | 24,434 | 318 | 31,760 | R +54.9 |
| Cullman County | 2,586 | 28,533 | 314 | 31,433 | R +82.5 |
| Elmore County | 6,234 | 24,714 | 313 | 31,261 | R +59.1 |
| Marshall County | 3,379 | 25,593 | 292 | 29,264 | R +75.9 |
| Talladega County | 8,278 | 17,512 | 260 | 26,050 | R +35.5 |
| Walker County | 2,705 | 18,822 | 217 | 21,744 | R +74.1 |
| DeKalb County | 2,171 | 18,814 | 212 | 21,197 | R +78.5 |
| Autauga County | 4,697 | 16,200 | 211 | 21,108 | R +54.5 |
| Colbert County | 5,037 | 14,958 | 202 | 20,197 | R +49.1 |
| Blount County | 1,665 | 18,204 | 201 | 20,070 | R +82.4 |
| Coffee County | 2,669 | 14,312 | 172 | 17,153 | R +67.9 |
| Jackson County | 2,157 | 14,524 | 169 | 16,850 | R +73.4 |
| Russell County | 7,649 | 7,901 | 158 | 15,708 | R +1.6 |
| Tallapoosa County | 3,384 | 12,031 | 155 | 15,570 | R +55.5 |
| Dale County | 3,026 | 11,659 | 149 | 14,834 | R +58.2 |
| Chilton County | 1,761 | 12,831 | 148 | 14,740 | R +75.1 |
| Covington County | 1,456 | 11,713 | 133 | 13,302 | R +77.1 |
| Dallas County | 8,798 | 4,304 | 133 | 13,235 | D +34.0 |
| Lawrence County | 2,245 | 9,934 | 123 | 12,302 | R +62.5 |
| Escambia County | 2,744 | 8,857 | 117 | 11,718 | R +52.2 |
| Chambers County | 3,753 | 7,188 | 111 | 11,052 | R +31.1 |
| Pike County | 3,415 | 6,976 | 105 | 10,496 | R +33.9 |
| Marion County | 805 | 9,254 | 101 | 10,160 | R +83.2 |
| Clarke County | 3,874 | 5,771 | 97 | 9,742 | R +19.5 |
| Geneva County | 858 | 8,658 | 96 | 9,612 | R +81.1 |
| Cherokee County | 863 | 8,449 | 94 | 9,406 | R +80.7 |
| Franklin County | 1,019 | 7,975 | 91 | 9,085 | R +76.6 |
| Winston County | 546 | 7,672 | 82 | 8,300 | R +85.8 |
| Randolph County | 1,094 | 6,925 | 81 | 8,100 | R +72.0 |
| Marengo County | 3,859 | 3,976 | 79 | 7,914 | R +1.5 |
| Barbour County | 3,054 | 4,758 | 78 | 7,890 | R +21.6 |
| Monroe County | 2,819 | 4,944 | 78 | 7,841 | R +27.1 |
| Henry County | 1,539 | 5,888 | 75 | 7,502 | R +58.0 |
| Pickens County | 2,619 | 4,569 | 73 | 7,261 | R +26.9 |
| Bibb County | 1,232 | 5,858 | 72 | 7,162 | R +64.6 |
| Macon County | 5,601 | 1,182 | 69 | 6,852 | D +64.5 |
| Butler County | 2,359 | 4,415 | 69 | 6,843 | R +30.0 |
| Washington County | 1,232 | 5,291 | 65 | 6,588 | R +61.6 |
| Fayette County | 761 | 5,544 | 63 | 6,368 | R +75.1 |
| Hale County | 3,171 | 2,634 | 59 | 5,864 | D +9.2 |
| Cleburne County | 327 | 5,213 | 56 | 5,596 | R +87.3 |
| Choctaw County | 1,942 | 3,511 | 55 | 5,508 | R +28.5 |
| Crenshaw County | 962 | 4,147 | 51 | 5,160 | R +61.7 |
| Lamar County | 502 | 4,580 | 52 | 5,134 | R +79.4 |
| Clay County | 667 | 4,341 | 50 | 5,058 | R +72.7 |
| Conecuh County | 1,913 | 2,912 | 49 | 4,874 | R +20.5 |
| Lowndes County | 3,243 | 1,268 | 45 | 4,556 | D +43.4 |
| Sumter County | 3,347 | 1,150 | 45 | 4,542 | D +48.4 |
| Wilcox County | 2,798 | 1,459 | 43 | 4,300 | D +31.1 |
| Coosa County | 1,148 | 3,038 | 42 | 4,228 | R +44.7 |
| Perry County | 2,654 | 914 | 36 | 3,604 | D +48.3 |
| Greene County | 2,746 | 570 | 34 | 3,350 | D +65.0 |
| Bullock County | 2,511 | 806 | 33 | 3,350 | D +50.9 |
Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.
Range of outcomes
80 percent of simulations80 percent of simulations fall between R +21.7 and R +39.4. The white dot is the forecast; the line is a tie.
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +49.6 |
| Blend of every leg | R +28.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +30.9 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +30.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +21.7 and R +39.4.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Dunham | Shaw | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||