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2026 ballot measure forecast

Wyoming Proposed Initiative Proposition Number One

50 percent homestead property tax exemption

Exempts 50 percent of the assessed value of a qualifying owner occupied primary residence from property tax. The forecast has Yes at 68.7 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteProperty taxUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
94%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
68.7%
80% range 56 to 79
Needs
53.2%
a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580
History and structure
68.7% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
68.7% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Must receive a majority of all ballots cast in the general election, not just votes on the question; blank votes effectively count as no.
The campaign

Sponsored by BCR Initiatives (Brent Bien, Cheryl Aguiar, Rich Weber); first Wyoming initiative on the ballot since 1996; state revenue loss about 92.6 million in FY2028; a group organized against it.

Proposed Initiative Proposition Number One by county

Albany CountyBig Horn CountyCampbell CountyCarbon CountyConverse CountyCrook CountyFremont CountyGoshen CountyHot Springs CountyJohnson CountyLaramie CountyLincoln CountyNatrona CountyNiobrara CountyPark CountyPlatte CountySheridan CountySublette CountySweetwater CountyTeton CountyUinta CountyWashakie CountyWeston CountyLaramieNatronaCampbellFremontAlbanyParkSweetwaterSheridanTetonLincolnUintaConverse
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Laramie County: Yes +10,393Natrona County: Yes +9,311Campbell County: Yes +6,879Park County: Yes +5,300Sweetwater County: Yes +4,925Sheridan County: Yes +4,707Fremont County: Yes +4,537Lincoln County: Yes +3,582Albany County: Yes +3,136Uinta County: Yes +2,986Converse County: Yes +2,470Big Horn County: Yes +2,085Goshen County: Yes +2,053Carbon County: Yes +1,999Platte County: Yes +1,680Johnson County: Yes +1,652Crook County: Yes +1,620Sublette County: Yes +1,539Weston County: Yes +1,374Washakie County: Yes +1,325Teton County: Yes +1,167Hot Springs County: Yes +872Niobrara County: Yes +540
Yes +76,132 net votes from 23 countiesStatewide Yes +37.3, a 76,132 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

204,008 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes140,07068.7%
No63,93831.3%
Total204,008100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Laramie County21,41611,02332,43966.0%
Natrona County17,1297,81824,94768.7%
Campbell County10,4053,52613,93174.7%
Fremont County9,0174,48013,49766.8%
Albany County8,2515,11513,36661.7%
Park County9,0833,78312,86670.6%
Sweetwater County8,7833,85812,64169.5%
Sheridan County8,5793,87212,45168.9%
Teton County5,5964,42910,02555.8%
Lincoln County5,7652,1837,94872.5%
Uinta County4,9621,9766,93871.5%
Converse County3,8321,3625,19473.8%
Goshen County3,4791,4264,90570.9%
Carbon County3,4501,4514,90170.4%
Big Horn County3,2551,1704,42573.6%
Johnson County2,7471,0953,84271.5%
Platte County2,7581,0783,83671.9%
Sublette County2,6071,0683,67570.9%
Crook County2,4238033,22675.1%
Washakie County2,1928673,05971.7%
Weston County2,0736992,77274.8%
Hot Springs County1,4766042,08071.0%
Niobrara County7922521,04475.9%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 53.2 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposed Initiative Proposition Number One is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Wyoming's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.wyo.gov, news.ballotpedia.org, sos.wyo.gov. All measures.