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2026 ballot measure forecast

West Virginia Amendment 1

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Adds a requirement to the constitution that only U.S. citizens who are West Virginia residents may vote, barring local noncitizen voting. The forecast has Yes at 86.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCitizen only votingUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
86.8%
80% range 79 to 92
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
86.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
86.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

SJR 9 passed unanimously; Americans for Citizen Voting supports; League of Women Voters of WV and WV Citizen Action Group oppose; no money reported.

Amendment 1 by county

Barbour CountyBerkeley CountyBoone CountyBraxton CountyBrooke CountyCabell CountyCalhoun CountyClay CountyDoddridge CountyFayette CountyGilmer CountyGrant CountyGreenbrier CountyHampshire CountyHancock CountyHardy CountyHarrison CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyKanawha CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyLogan CountyMcDowell CountyMarion CountyMarshall CountyMason CountyMercer CountyMineral CountyMingo CountyMonongalia CountyMonroe CountyMorgan CountyNicholas CountyOhio CountyPendleton CountyPleasants CountyPocahontas CountyPreston CountyPutnam CountyRaleigh CountyRandolph CountyRitchie CountyRoane CountySummers CountyTaylor CountyTucker CountyTyler CountyUpshur CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWetzel CountyWirt CountyWood CountyWyoming CountyKanawhaBerkeleyMonongaliaCabellWoodRaleighHarrisonJeffersonPutnamMarionMercerOhio
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Kanawha County: Yes +36,991Berkeley County: Yes +27,374Wood County: Yes +20,845Monongalia County: Yes +20,421Cabell County: Yes +18,592Raleigh County: Yes +18,032Harrison County: Yes +15,983Putnam County: Yes +14,963Mercer County: Yes +14,213Jefferson County: Yes +13,273Marion County: Yes +12,998Ohio County: Yes +9,766Wayne County: Yes +9,179Fayette County: Yes +8,715Greenbrier County: Yes +8,663Preston County: Yes +8,589Marshall County: Yes +7,789Mineral County: Yes +7,528Jackson County: Yes +7,469Hancock County: Yes +7,349Logan County: Yes +7,112Randolph County: Yes +6,741Nicholas County: Yes +6,231Mason County: Yes +6,226Hampshire County: Yes +6,157Upshur County: Yes +5,923Mingo County: Yes +5,555Brooke County: Yes +5,507Boone County: Yes +5,000Morgan County: Yes +4,908Wyoming County: Yes +4,850Lincoln County: Yes +4,520Lewis County: Yes +4,237Taylor County: Yes +4,121Barbour County: Yes +3,828Monroe County: Yes +3,808Hardy County: Yes +3,756Wetzel County: Yes +3,624Grant County: Yes +3,549McDowell County: Yes +3,421Roane County: Yes +3,327Braxton County: Yes +3,121Summers County: Yes +3,100Ritchie County: Yes +2,517Tyler County: Yes +2,298Pocahontas County: Yes +2,286Tucker County: Yes +2,107Doddridge County: Yes +2,046Pleasants County: Yes +2,002Clay County: Yes +1,984Pendleton County: Yes +1,943Webster County: Yes +1,907Calhoun County: Yes +1,813Gilmer County: Yes +1,597Wirt County: Yes +1,561
Yes +421,415 net votes from 55 countiesStatewide Yes +73.6, a 421,415 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

572,297 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes496,85686.8%
No75,44113.2%
Total572,297100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Kanawha County47,42410,43357,85782.0%
Berkeley County32,8165,44238,25885.8%
Monongalia County27,8147,39335,20779.0%
Cabell County23,4154,82328,23882.9%
Wood County24,4303,58528,01587.2%
Raleigh County20,4572,42522,88289.4%
Harrison County18,8422,85921,70186.8%
Jefferson County17,1363,86320,99981.6%
Putnam County17,3612,39819,75987.9%
Marion County15,8132,81518,62884.9%
Mercer County15,9961,78317,77990.0%
Ohio County12,1082,34214,45083.8%
Fayette County10,2481,53311,78187.0%
Wayne County10,4391,26011,69989.2%
Greenbrier County10,1781,51511,69387.0%
Preston County9,6671,07810,74590.0%
Marshall County8,9411,15210,09388.6%
Hancock County8,5171,1689,68587.9%
Jackson County8,4299609,38989.8%
Mineral County8,4118839,29490.5%
Randolph County7,8241,0838,90787.8%
Logan County7,8157038,51891.7%
Mason County6,9897637,75290.2%
Nicholas County6,9597287,68790.5%
Hampshire County6,8356787,51391.0%
Upshur County6,6717487,41989.9%
Brooke County6,4229157,33787.5%
Mingo County5,9944396,43393.2%
Boone County5,6206206,24090.1%
Morgan County5,5496416,19089.6%
Wyoming County5,2453955,64093.0%
Lincoln County5,0144945,50891.0%
Taylor County4,7125915,30388.9%
Lewis County4,7425055,24790.4%
Barbour County4,2684404,70890.7%
Hardy County4,2214654,68690.1%
Monroe County4,2324244,65690.9%
Wetzel County4,0924684,56089.7%
Roane County3,7784514,22989.3%
McDowell County3,8203994,21990.5%
Grant County3,7802314,01194.2%
Braxton County3,5654444,00988.9%
Summers County3,5444443,98888.9%
Pocahontas County2,6213352,95688.7%
Ritchie County2,7202032,92393.1%
Tucker County2,4253182,74388.4%
Tyler County2,5172192,73692.0%
Pleasants County2,2422402,48290.3%
Clay County2,2022182,42091.0%
Pendleton County2,1792362,41590.2%
Doddridge County2,2101642,37493.1%
Webster County2,0951882,28391.8%
Calhoun County1,9991862,18591.5%
Gilmer County1,7992022,00189.9%
Wirt County1,7141531,86791.8%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 1 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with West Virginia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, news.ballotpedia.org, theballotbrief.com. All measures.